Betrachte das Archiv von Donnerstag 23 Juli 1998

Solar-Aktivitätsbericht

Bericht der solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität 1998 Jul 23 2200 UTC
Erstellt von NOAA © SWPC und verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive.com

Gemeinsame Bericht der USAF und NOAA zur solaren und geophysikalischen Aktivität

SDF Nummer 204 ausgestellt am 23 JUL 1998 um 2200 Uhr UTC

IA. Die Analyse der aktiven Sonnenflecken Gruppen und Aktivität vom 22. 2100 Uhr auf 23. 2100 Uhr des Monats

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THREE C-CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS: A C1 FROM REGION 8280 (S21E54) AT 1605Z, A C1 FROM REGION 8281 (N18E45) AT 1630Z, AND A C1 FROM REGION 8282 (N33E56) AT 1745Z. REGIONS 8281 AND 8282 ARE BOTH RELATIVELY SMALL, BUT ARE GROWING. REGION 8280 CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE IN SIZE AND APPEARS TO BE GROWING SLOWLY. NEVERTHELESS, THE REGION IS REMARKABLY STABLE.
IB. Sonnenaktivitäts-Prognose
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE, HOWEVER, FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8280 SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS, WITH SOME MAJOR STORM PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE PERIOD FROM 0300-1500Z WAS PARTICULARLY DISTURBED AND ATTAINED MAXIMUM FROM 09-12Z WITH AN ESTIMATED KP OF 6. THE ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH SPEED STREAM WITH VELOCITIES UP TO 700 KM/S OBSERVED BY ACE. THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD COMPONENT, BZ, SHOWED REGULAR, STRONG FLUCTUATIONS VARYING BETWEEN +10 NT TO -10NT. THIS WAVE ACTIVITY WAS MANIFESTED IN THE GROUND BASED MAGNETOMETER SIGNATURE AS FREQUENTLY FLUCTUATING FIELD VARIATIONS. DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY FROM 1500-2100Z THE WAVE ACTIVITY CONTINUED BUT WAS WEAKER (+/- 5 NT), AND THIS WAS ALSO REFLECTED IN A WEAKENED MAGNETIC DISTANCE: MID-LATITUDES WERE ACTIVE AND HIGH LATITUDES WERE MOSTLY ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM. AFTER THE FACT SOLAR ANALYSIS SUGGESTED THAT THE HIGH SPEED STREAM IS DUE TO AN EXTENSION OF THE NORTHERN POLAR CORONAL HOLE.
IIB. Geophysikalische Aktivitätsprognose
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED STORM LEVEL ACTIVITY AT HIGH-LATITUDES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE LATTER PART OF TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Ereignis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten 24 JUL bis 26 JUL
M-Klasse25%25%25%
X-Klasse05%05%05%
Protonensturm05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Beobachtet       23 JUL 115
  Vorhergesagt   24 JUL-26 JUL  115/112/110
  90 Tage Mittel        23 JUL 108
V. Geomagnetischer Ap Index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 JUL  008/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 JUL  025/036
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 JUL-26 JUL  015/015-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetische Aktivität - Wahrscheinlichkeiten 24 JUL bis 26 JUL
A. Mittlere Breiten
Aktiv40%20%15%
Geringer Sturm15%05%05%
Schwerwiegender Sturm05%01%01%
B. Hohe Breiten
Aktiv40%25%20%
Geringer Sturm20%15%05%
Schwerwiegender Sturm10%05%05%
THE FOLLOWING CHANGES WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY, 27 JULY: GOES-9 WILL BE TAKEN OUT OF OPERATIONAL STATUS GOES-8 WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SATELLITE FOR SWO DATA AND PRODUCTS. GOES-10 WILL BE THE SECONDARY SATELLITE (THIS NOTICE SUPERCEDES THE EARLIER DECISION THAT HAD ASSIGNED GOES-10 AS PRIMARY)

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