Viser arkiv af onsdag, 21 november 2012

Solaktivitetsrapport

Ethvert nævnt soludbrud i denne rapport har en skaleringsfaktor anvendt af Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). På grund af SWPC-skaleringsfaktoren rapporteres soludbrud som 42 % mindre end for videnskabelige kvalitetsdata. Skaleringsfaktoren er blevet fjernet fra vores arkiverede soludbrudsdata for at afspejle de sande fysiske enheder.
Rapport om sol-geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Nov 21 2200 UTC
Udarbejdet af NOAA © SWPC og behandlet af SpaceWeatherLive.com

Fælles USAF/NOAA-rapport om sol- og geofysisk aktivitet

SDF nummer 326 Udstedt til 2200Z på 21 Nov 2012

IA. Analyse af solaktive områder og aktivitet fra 20-2100Z til 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M3 event at 21/1530Z from Region 1618 (N09E01) associated with Type IV and II radio sweeps (estimated velocity of 1918 km/s), a 200 sfu Tenflare, and a CME. More imagery is needed to determine the trajectory, however, it is expected to be Earth-directed due to the location of the region. Region 1618 also produced an M1/1n flare at 21/0656Z associated with Type IV and II radio sweeps (estimated velocity of 720 km/s) and a CME. This CME appears to have a slight Earthward component but the majority of ejecta is directed Eastward as visible on imagery. Region 1618 developed into a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. A filament eruption occurred between 20/2305Z to 21/0200Z at around N27E17 with a 14 degree heliographic extent. This filament eruption does not appear to have a CME associated with it. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solaktivitetsprognose
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate with a chance for high levels on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov). Region 1618 is expected to produce M-class flares. A chance for an isolated X-class flare exists for this region.
IIA. Geofysisk aktivitetsoversigt 20-2100Z til 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 488 km/s at 21/0307Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/2228Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6.4 nT at 20/2350Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 857 pfu.
IIB. Geofysisk aktivitetsprognose
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Nov). On day two (23 Nov) conditions are expected to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels with a chance for major storm levels due to the arrival of 21 and 22 Nov CMEs. Conditions are expected to decrease to unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm levels on day three (24 Nov) with CME effects combined with a favorably positioned coronal hole. A chance for a proton event exists on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov) due to a chance of high solar flare activity and a favorable position of Region 1618.
III. Hændelsessandsynligheder 22 Nov til 24 Nov
Klasse M70%70%70%
Klasse X30%30%30%
Proton30%30%30%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm Flux
  Observeret       21 Nov 140
  Forudsagt   22 Nov-24 Nov 140/135/135
  90 dages gennemsnit        21 Nov 122

V. Geomagnetiske A-indekser
  Observeret Afr/Ap 20 Nov  010/013
  Anslået     Afr/Ap 21 Nov  007/008
  Forudsagt    Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  010/012-023/030-014/020

VI. Geomagnetisk aktivitetssandsynlighed 22 Nov til 24 Nov
A. Mellemste breddegrader
Aktiv20%35%40%
Mindre storm05%30%20%
Større-alvorlig storm01%10%05%
B. Høje breddegrader
Aktiv20%10%10%
Mindre storm30%20%25%
Større-alvorlig storm25%65%60%

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