Viser arkiv af søndag, 4 marts 2012

Solaktivitetsrapport

Ethvert nævnt soludbrud i denne rapport har en skaleringsfaktor anvendt af Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). På grund af SWPC-skaleringsfaktoren rapporteres soludbrud som 42 % mindre end for videnskabelige kvalitetsdata. Skaleringsfaktoren er blevet fjernet fra vores arkiverede soludbrudsdata for at afspejle de sande fysiske enheder.
Rapport om sol-geofysisk aktivitet 2012 Mar 04 2200 UTC
Udarbejdet af NOAA © SWPC og behandlet af SpaceWeatherLive.com

Fælles USAF/NOAA-rapport om sol- og geofysisk aktivitet

SDF nummer 064 Udstedt til 2200Z på 04 Mar 2012

IA. Analyse af solaktive områder og aktivitet fra 03-2100Z til 04-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. A long duration M2/1N flare was observed at 04/1052Z from Region 1429 (N18E55). Associated with the event was a 750 sfu Tenflare, Type IV Radio Sweep, and a CME first visible in STEREO B COR 2 Imagery at 04/1210Z (estimated speed of 840 km/s). This region is classified as a Dkc spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. Further analysis of the CME will be necessary as imagery becomes available, however there appears to be a partial Earth-directed component. A glancing blow is possible from this event.
IB. Solaktivitetsprognose
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels with a slight chance for an X-class flare from Region 1429.
IIA. Geofysisk aktivitetsoversigt 03-2100Z til 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions with an isolated major storm period observed at high latitudes between 04/0900 - 1200Z. Activity was due to extended periods of the negative Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field near -5 nT. The solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft was relatively steady near 380 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geofysisk aktivitetsprognose
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (05 March). Activity levels are expected to increase on day 2 (06 March) due to a possible glancing blow from todays CME associated with the M2/1N flare. Unsettled to active conditions are expected with isolated minor storm periods possible. Conditions are expected to settle down to mostly quiet to unsettled conditions by day 3 (07 March) as the effects of the CME wane. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event from Region 1429 for the forecast period.
III. Hændelsessandsynligheder 05 Mar til 07 Mar
Klasse M60%60%60%
Klasse X15%15%15%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm Flux
  Observeret       04 Mar 120
  Forudsagt   05 Mar-07 Mar  120/120/115
  90 dages gennemsnit        04 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetiske A-indekser
  Observeret Afr/Ap 03 Mar  008/009
  Anslået     Afr/Ap 04 Mar  012/012
  Forudsagt    Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar  006/005-012/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetisk aktivitetssandsynlighed 05 Mar til 07 Mar
A. Mellemste breddegrader
Aktiv05%30%15%
Mindre storm01%15%05%
Større-alvorlig storm01%01%01%
B. Høje breddegrader
Aktiv15%35%20%
Mindre storm10%25%15%
Større-alvorlig storm01%15%10%

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