Viser arkiv af tirsdag, 9 august 2011

Solaktivitetsrapport

Ethvert nævnt soludbrud i denne rapport har en skaleringsfaktor anvendt af Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). På grund af SWPC-skaleringsfaktoren rapporteres soludbrud som 42 % mindre end for videnskabelige kvalitetsdata. Skaleringsfaktoren er blevet fjernet fra vores arkiverede soludbrudsdata for at afspejle de sande fysiske enheder.
Rapport om sol-geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Aug 09 2200 UTC
Udarbejdet af NOAA © SWPC og behandlet af SpaceWeatherLive.com

Fælles USAF/NOAA-rapport om sol- og geofysisk aktivitet

SDF nummer 221 Udstedt til 2200Z på 09 Aug 2011

IA. Analyse af solaktive områder og aktivitet fra 08-2100Z til 09-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 1263 (N17W83) produced an X6/2b flare at 09/0805Z, the largest x-ray event so far in Cycle 24. This flare was accompanied by multi-frequency radio emissions, including a Tenflare (710sfu), and Type II (1551 km/s) and IV signatures. A full halo CME was subsequently observed in LASCO C3 imagery at 09/0906Z. Initial plane-of-sky speed was estimated to be about 1000 km/s. Earlier in the period, a CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery at 0406Z. This event was attributed to an M2/1b flare from Region 1263 at 09/03435Z. While the area of Region 1263 diminished over the last 24 hours, the longitudinal extent expanded, and the region ended the period as an Ehc type spot group with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solaktivitetsprognose
Solar activity is likely to be low to moderate. A slight chance for an isolated X-class flare, and/or proton event, remains for Day 1 (10 August). Event probabilities are expected to gradually decrease as Region 1263 rotates around the west limb.
IIA. Geofysisk aktivitetsoversigt 08-2100Z til 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled through the period under the continued influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft was approximately 600 km/s for most of the period. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly near zero. The greater than 100 MeV protons crossed the 1 pfu event threshold at 09/0825Z, reached a maximum of 2 pfu at 09/0855Z, and ended at 09/1045Z. The greater than 10 MeV protons crossed the 10 pfu event threshold at 09/0845Z, reached a maximum of 26 pfu at 09/1210Z, and ended at 09/1715Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geofysisk aktivitetsprognose
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the next three days (10-12 August). Unsettled conditions are expected on Day 1 (10 August) as a weak remnant of the 08 August CME arrives. Currently, a return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on Days 2 and 3 (11-12 August). Analysis of the 09/0906Z CME is presently underway to determine its potential geoeffectiveness.
III. Hændelsessandsynligheder 10 Aug til 12 Aug
Klasse M60%40%20%
Klasse X10%10%05%
Proton99%60%10%
PCAFYellow
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm Flux
  Observeret       09 Aug 098
  Forudsagt   10 Aug-12 Aug  095/085/085
  90 dages gennemsnit        09 Aug 096
V. Geomagnetiske A-indekser
  Observeret Afr/Ap 08 Aug  008/010
  Anslået     Afr/Ap 09 Aug  008/008
  Forudsagt    Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug  010/010-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetisk aktivitetssandsynlighed 10 Aug til 12 Aug
A. Mellemste breddegrader
Aktiv20%15%05%
Mindre storm05%05%05%
Større-alvorlig storm01%01%01%
B. Høje breddegrader
Aktiv15%20%10%
Mindre storm10%05%05%
Større-alvorlig storm05%05%01%

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