Viser arkiv af mandag, 8 august 2011

Solaktivitetsrapport

Ethvert nævnt soludbrud i denne rapport har en skaleringsfaktor anvendt af Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). På grund af SWPC-skaleringsfaktoren rapporteres soludbrud som 42 % mindre end for videnskabelige kvalitetsdata. Skaleringsfaktoren er blevet fjernet fra vores arkiverede soludbrudsdata for at afspejle de sande fysiske enheder.
Rapport om sol-geofysisk aktivitet 2011 Aug 08 2200 UTC
Udarbejdet af NOAA © SWPC og behandlet af SpaceWeatherLive.com

Fælles USAF/NOAA-rapport om sol- og geofysisk aktivitet

SDF nummer 220 Udstedt til 2200Z på 08 Aug 2011

IA. Analyse af solaktive områder og aktivitet fra 07-2100Z til 08-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1263 (N18W68) produced the largest x-ray flare of the period, a M3/1b at 1810Z. This event was accompanied by a Type II radio emission (3284 km/s) and a Tenflare (300 sfu). STEREO-A COR2 imagery indicated a CME first visible at 1824Z. Extrapolation from later images suggested a speed of approximately 2010 km/s. Preliminary LASCO C3 image analysis suggested a speed of 1152 km/s. Region 1263 ended the period as a Ekc type spot group with beta-gamma-delta magnetic characteristics. The remaining regions on the disk were small, simple and relatively quiet.
IB. Solaktivitetsprognose
Solar activity is expected to remain low to moderate for the next three days (09-11 Aug) with Region 1263 being the most likely source of activity. A slight chance for an isolated X flare and/or proton event remains through the forecast period.
IIA. Geofysisk aktivitetsoversigt 07-2100Z til 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled as the effects from a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream began to taper off. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft was approximately 600 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained near zero. There was an enhancement of the greater than 10-MeV protons in response to the M3 flare mentioned above. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geofysisk aktivitetsprognose
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days in the wake of the coronal hole high speed stream. Further analysis of the CME observed in STEREO and SOHO imagery is underway to determine its geoeffective potential.
III. Hændelsessandsynligheder 09 Aug til 11 Aug
Klasse M55%55%40%
Klasse X10%10%05%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFYellow
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm Flux
  Observeret       08 Aug 102
  Forudsagt   09 Aug-11 Aug  095/085/085
  90 dages gennemsnit        08 Aug 096
V. Geomagnetiske A-indekser
  Observeret Afr/Ap 07 Aug  006/007
  Anslået     Afr/Ap 08 Aug  010/012
  Forudsagt    Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug  010/012-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetisk aktivitetssandsynlighed 09 Aug til 11 Aug
A. Mellemste breddegrader
Aktiv15%15%05%
Mindre storm05%05%05%
Større-alvorlig storm05%01%01%
B. Høje breddegrader
Aktiv20%20%11%
Mindre storm10%15%06%
Større-alvorlig storm05%05%01%

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