Viser arkiv af fredag, 2 december 2005

Solaktivitetsrapport

Ethvert nævnt soludbrud i denne rapport har en skaleringsfaktor anvendt af Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). På grund af SWPC-skaleringsfaktoren rapporteres soludbrud som 42 % mindre end for videnskabelige kvalitetsdata. Skaleringsfaktoren er blevet fjernet fra vores arkiverede soludbrudsdata for at afspejle de sande fysiske enheder.
Rapport om sol-geofysisk aktivitet 2005 Dec 02 2204 UTC
Udarbejdet af NOAA © SWPC og behandlet af SpaceWeatherLive.com

Fælles USAF/NOAA-rapport om sol- og geofysisk aktivitet

SDF nummer 336 Udstedt til 2200Z på 02 Dec 2005

IA. Analyse af solaktive områder og aktivitet fra 01-2100Z til 02-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels today. Region 826 (S02E09) continues to show strong growth in magnetic complexity and sunspot area. Magnetic analysis shows a strong east-west neutral line through the delta spot in the geometric center of the sunspot cluster. Sunspot area more than doubled since yesterday and measures 490 millionths in white light analysis. Region 826 produced two major flares during the period, the largest was an M7/1n flare that occurred at 02/1012Z, and had an associated Tenflare (490 sfu), and a Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 824 km/sec. There was a very faint partial halo CME following this flare, which was first seen on LASCO imagery at 02/1054Z. The second major flare today was an M6 x-ray event occurring at 02/0252Z which had an associated Tenflare (460 sfu). Regions 829 (N11E02) and 830 (N14E78) were numbered today.
IB. Solaktivitetsprognose
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 826 is expected to continue to produce major flares.
IIA. Geofysisk aktivitetsoversigt 01-2100Z til 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. An isolated minor storm period was observed at the Boulder magnetometer between 01/2100 and 2400Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geofysisk aktivitetsprognose
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels throughout the period. The high speed coronal hole stream is expected to move out of geoeffective position on 03 December. A weak transient passage from the partial halo CME that occurred today, may lead to isolated minor storm conditions late on 04 or early on 05 December.
III. Hændelsessandsynligheder 03 Dec til 05 Dec
Klasse M60%60%60%
Klasse X25%25%25%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm Flux
  Observeret       02 Dec 106
  Forudsagt   03 Dec-05 Dec  110/110/110
  90 dages gennemsnit        02 Dec 085
V. Geomagnetiske A-indekser
  Observeret Afr/Ap 01 Dec  012/013
  Anslået     Afr/Ap 02 Dec  012/015
  Forudsagt    Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  010/015-010/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetisk aktivitetssandsynlighed 03 Dec til 05 Dec
A. Mellemste breddegrader
Aktiv20%20%25%
Mindre storm05%05%10%
Større-alvorlig storm01%01%05%
B. Høje breddegrader
Aktiv30%25%30%
Mindre storm15%10%15%
Større-alvorlig storm10%05%10%

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