Viser arkiv af mandag, 29 marts 2004

Solaktivitetsrapport

Ethvert nævnt soludbrud i denne rapport har en skaleringsfaktor anvendt af Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). På grund af SWPC-skaleringsfaktoren rapporteres soludbrud som 42 % mindre end for videnskabelige kvalitetsdata. Skaleringsfaktoren er blevet fjernet fra vores arkiverede soludbrudsdata for at afspejle de sande fysiske enheder.
Rapport om sol-geofysisk aktivitet 2004 Mar 29 2200 UTC
Udarbejdet af NOAA © SWPC og behandlet af SpaceWeatherLive.com

Fælles USAF/NOAA-rapport om sol- og geofysisk aktivitet

SDF nummer 089 Udstedt til 2200Z på 29 Mar 2004

IA. Analyse af solaktive områder og aktivitet fra 28-2100Z til 29-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 582 (N14E18) produced several C-class flares today. The largest was a C5/Sf at 1551 UTC. The region dominates the solar disk in size and complexity and became more active during the past 24 hours. The region appears to be growing slowly. The only other region producing flares was 587 (S12E63) which managed to produce two B-class events. All the other regions on the disk were quiet and stable. A CME was observed by LASCO off the southwest limb around 0040 UTC, but the lack of corresponding disk signatures suggests that the source was on the back side.
IB. Solaktivitetsprognose
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low. There is a chance, however, for an isolated M-class flare from Region 582 during the next three days (30 March - 1 April).
IIA. Geofysisk aktivitetsoversigt 28-2100Z til 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, although there was one active period from 0300-0600 UTC. Solar wind data show a declining high speed stream with velocities slowly decreasing over the past 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field shows weak fluctuations in Bz, ranging from -3 nT to +3 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was high during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geofysisk aktivitetsprognose
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with a slight chance for an active period during the next 24 hours (30 March). Conditions should decline to quiet to unsettled for the second and third days (31 March - 1 April) as the solar wind returns to nominal conditions.
III. Hændelsessandsynligheder 30 Mar til 01 Apr
Klasse M35%35%35%
Klasse X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm Flux
  Observeret       29 Mar 129
  Forudsagt   30 Mar-01 Apr  130/130/135
  90 dages gennemsnit        29 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetiske A-indekser
  Observeret Afr/Ap 28 Mar  012/017
  Anslået     Afr/Ap 29 Mar  012/013
  Forudsagt    Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr  012/012-010/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetisk aktivitetssandsynlighed 30 Mar til 01 Apr
A. Mellemste breddegrader
Aktiv30%25%20%
Mindre storm20%15%10%
Større-alvorlig storm05%05%05%
B. Høje breddegrader
Aktiv30%25%20%
Mindre storm25%20%15%
Større-alvorlig storm10%05%05%

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