Viser arkiv af lørdag, 14 september 2002

Solaktivitetsrapport

Ethvert nævnt soludbrud i denne rapport har en skaleringsfaktor anvendt af Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). På grund af SWPC-skaleringsfaktoren rapporteres soludbrud som 42 % mindre end for videnskabelige kvalitetsdata. Skaleringsfaktoren er blevet fjernet fra vores arkiverede soludbrudsdata for at afspejle de sande fysiske enheder.
Rapport om sol-geofysisk aktivitet 2002 Sep 14 2200 UTC
Udarbejdet af NOAA © SWPC og behandlet af SpaceWeatherLive.com

Fælles USAF/NOAA-rapport om sol- og geofysisk aktivitet

SDF nummer 257 Udstedt til 2200Z på 14 Sep 2002

IA. Analyse af solaktive områder og aktivitet fra 13-2100Z til 14-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Analysis of recent data indicating a restructuring of the magnetic field and the materialization of satellite spots warranted the separation of the two main clusters of spots in Region 105 (now centered at S07W18). Newly numbered Region 114 (S12W02) is the trailing portion of spots previously included in Region 105. Region 114 produced the largest flare of the period, a C4.5/Sf at 14/1831 UTC, and at the time of this writing, data shows only a very weak delta class spot remaining indicating continued decay of this region. Region 105 produced several C-class events today, the largest was a C4.1/Sf flare occurring at 14/1453 UTC, this region has also shown decay during the period. H-alpha imagery suggests both these regions were simultaneously responsible for the intermittent and slightly elevated x-ray flux seen during the latter part of the day. The remaining numbered regions were quiet. New Region 115 (S03E45) was also assigned today.
IB. Solaktivitetsprognose
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 105 and 114 are both capable of producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geofysisk aktivitetsoversigt 13-2100Z til 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Coronal hole high speed stream effects subsided near mid-period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeded event threshold at 14/1130 UTC and remains at high levels.
IIB. Geofysisk aktivitetsprognose
The geomagnetic field is expected to return to quiet to unsettled conditions throughout the forecast period. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels during much of the period.
III. Hændelsessandsynligheder 15 Sep til 17 Sep
Klasse M50%50%50%
Klasse X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm Flux
  Observeret       14 Sep 207
  Forudsagt   15 Sep-17 Sep  200/195/190
  90 dages gennemsnit        14 Sep 176
V. Geomagnetiske A-indekser
  Observeret Afr/Ap 13 Sep  009/016
  Anslået     Afr/Ap 14 Sep  008/008
  Forudsagt    Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetisk aktivitetssandsynlighed 15 Sep til 17 Sep
A. Mellemste breddegrader
Aktiv15%15%15%
Mindre storm01%01%01%
Større-alvorlig storm01%01%01%
B. Høje breddegrader
Aktiv20%20%20%
Mindre storm05%05%05%
Større-alvorlig storm01%01%01%

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