Viser arkiv af fredag, 19 oktober 2001

Solaktivitetsrapport

Ethvert nævnt soludbrud i denne rapport har en skaleringsfaktor anvendt af Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). På grund af SWPC-skaleringsfaktoren rapporteres soludbrud som 42 % mindre end for videnskabelige kvalitetsdata. Skaleringsfaktoren er blevet fjernet fra vores arkiverede soludbrudsdata for at afspejle de sande fysiske enheder.
Rapport om sol-geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Oct 19 2200 UTC
Udarbejdet af NOAA © SWPC og behandlet af SpaceWeatherLive.com

Fælles USAF/NOAA-rapport om sol- og geofysisk aktivitet

SDF nummer 292 Udstedt til 2200Z på 19 Oct 2001

IA. Analyse af solaktive områder og aktivitet fra 18-2100Z til 19-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels. Region 9661 (N16W35) was very active producing two X class flares. The first flare was a X1/2b at 19/0105 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (914 km/s). The second flare was a X1/2b at 19/1630 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (738 km/s). SOHO/LASCO imagery shows full halo CMEs associated with both events. A Type IV radio sweep was also detected with both CME events. Other activity was centered around Region 9658 (S14W61). This region produced an M5/1b flare at 19/0943 UTC and several other minor M-class and C-class flares. New Region 9674 (S08E34) was numbered today.
IB. Solaktivitetsprognose
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 9658 and Region 9661 are very active producing major flares. There has been very little change in their characteristics from yesterday, so the potential for a major flare remains good.
IIA. Geofysisk aktivitetsoversigt 18-2100Z til 19-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled. Greater than 10 MeV proton levels was enhanced due to the two CMEs from Region 9661, but remained just below event threshold.
IIB. Geofysisk aktivitetsprognose
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions for day one. Quiet to minor storm levels are expected on day two and three with the possibility for isolated major storm conditions. Analysis of the full halo CME (19/0105 UTC from Region 9661) indicated shock arrival late on day two or early on day three (57-72 hour transit time). The shock arrival from the second full halo CME (19/1630 UTC from Region 9661) is expected to arrive late on day three of the period (76-81 hour transit time). Greater than 10 MeV proton levels may exceed event threshold on the first day of the period. Further enhancements may occur if major flare activity continues.
III. Hændelsessandsynligheder 20 Oct til 22 Oct
Klasse M75%75%75%
Klasse X20%20%20%
Proton75%50%20%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm Flux
  Observeret       19 Oct 248
  Forudsagt   20 Oct-22 Oct  250/250/245
  90 dages gennemsnit        19 Oct 189
V. Geomagnetiske A-indekser
  Observeret Afr/Ap 18 Oct  002/004
  Anslået     Afr/Ap 19 Oct  006/008
  Forudsagt    Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  010/012-025/025-030/035
VI. Geomagnetisk aktivitetssandsynlighed 20 Oct til 22 Oct
A. Mellemste breddegrader
Aktiv15%55%55%
Mindre storm05%30%30%
Større-alvorlig storm01%05%05%
B. Høje breddegrader
Aktiv20%55%55%
Mindre storm15%30%35%
Større-alvorlig storm05%10%10%

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