Viser arkiv af onsdag, 3 marts 1999

Solaktivitetsrapport

Ethvert nævnt soludbrud i denne rapport har en skaleringsfaktor anvendt af Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). På grund af SWPC-skaleringsfaktoren rapporteres soludbrud som 42 % mindre end for videnskabelige kvalitetsdata. Skaleringsfaktoren er blevet fjernet fra vores arkiverede soludbrudsdata for at afspejle de sande fysiske enheder.
Rapport om sol-geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Mar 03 2200 UTC
Udarbejdet af NOAA © SWPC og behandlet af SpaceWeatherLive.com

Fælles USAF/NOAA-rapport om sol- og geofysisk aktivitet

SDF nummer 062 Udstedt til 2200Z på 03 MAR 1999

IA. Analyse af solaktive områder og aktivitet fra 02-2100Z til 03-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8471 (N29W52) PRODUCED A C2/SF AT 03/0128Z AND A C4/SF AT 03/0345Z. THIS REGION SHOWED SLIGHT DECAY DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8476 (N18W22) PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 03/0602Z AND A C1/SF AT 03/1654Z. CONTINUED GROWTH WAS OBSERVED IN THIS REGION AND MINOR MIXED POLARITIES WERE OBSERVED. REGION 8475 (N31W10) WAS RELATIVELY QUIET BUT MINOR MIXING OF POLARITIES WAS ALSO VISIBLE IN THIS REGION. BEGINNING AT 03/1841Z, THE MAUNA LOA CORONAGRAPH OBSERVED A CORONAL MASS EJECTION AND ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE FROM NEAR SW20.
IB. Solaktivitetsprognose
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO MODERATE. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS ARE EXPECTED FROM REGIONS 8471, 8475, AND 8476. EACH OF THESE REGIONS IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS. CONTINUED GROWTH IN REGION 8476 COULD MAKE IT THE PREDOMINANT FLARE PRODUCING REGION ON THE SUN. OVERALL ACTIVITY LEVELS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED BEGINNING ON 6 MAR AS PREVIOUSLY ACTIVE LONGITUDES RETURN TO THE EAST LIMB.
IIA. Geofysisk aktivitetsoversigt 02-2100Z til 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE PLANETARY K-INDEX REACHED ACTIVE LEVELS IN THE 03/1500-2100Z INTERVAL. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY DECREASED APPROXIMATELY 100 KM/S DURING THE PERIOD AND BZ WAS NORTHWARD FOR ALMOST ALL THE PERIOD. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BECAME MODERATE.
IIB. Geofysisk aktivitetsprognose
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SLIGHT CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS COULD BE EXPERIENCED ON 06 MAR. BEGINNING THEN, BRIEF PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
III. Hændelsessandsynligheder 04 MAR til 06 MAR
Klasse M50%50%50%
Klasse X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm Flux
  Observeret       03 MAR 137
  Forudsagt   04 MAR-06 MAR  140/143/150
  90 dages gennemsnit        03 MAR 143
V. Geomagnetiske A-indekser
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 MAR  012/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 MAR  010/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 MAR-06 MAR  008/013-008/009-010/009
VI. Geomagnetisk aktivitetssandsynlighed 04 MAR til 06 MAR
A. Mellemste breddegrader
Aktiv20%20%30%
Mindre storm10%10%10%
Større-alvorlig storm05%05%05%
B. Høje breddegrader
Aktiv30%25%30%
Mindre storm10%10%15%
Større-alvorlig storm01%01%01%

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