Viser arkiv af søndag, 30 august 1998

Solaktivitetsrapport

Ethvert nævnt soludbrud i denne rapport har en skaleringsfaktor anvendt af Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). På grund af SWPC-skaleringsfaktoren rapporteres soludbrud som 42 % mindre end for videnskabelige kvalitetsdata. Skaleringsfaktoren er blevet fjernet fra vores arkiverede soludbrudsdata for at afspejle de sande fysiske enheder.
Rapport om sol-geofysisk aktivitet 1998 Aug 30 2200 UTC
Udarbejdet af NOAA © SWPC og behandlet af SpaceWeatherLive.com

Fælles USAF/NOAA-rapport om sol- og geofysisk aktivitet

SDF nummer 242 Udstedt til 2200Z på 30 AUG 1998

IA. Analyse af solaktive områder og aktivitet fra 29-2100Z til 30-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THE MAJORITY OF TODAY'S ACTIVITY CAME FROM REGION 8319 (N18W41) WHICH PRODUCED TWO M-CLASS FLARES: AN M1/1N AT 0541Z AND AN M1/1N AT 0937Z. THE REGION GREW RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, MORE THAN DOUBLING IN SIZE, AND PRODUCED VERY FREQUENT SUBFLARE ACTIVITY. THE SUNSPOT DISTRIBUTION APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING FROM AN INTERMEDIATE TO COMPACT CONFIGURATION. A THIRD M-CLASS EVENT (M1/SN WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II SWEEP) WAS PRODUCED BY 8307 (N30W65) AT 1805Z. ALL THREE OF TODAY'S M-CLASS FLARES WERE SHORT-LIVED, IMPULSIVE EVENTS. REGION 8323 (S21E54) HAS ROTATED INTO VIEW AS A LARGE (700-800 MILLIONTHS), COMPACT SUNSPOT GROUP. MAGNETIC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A MIXING OF MAGNETIC POLARITY INCLUDING A PROBABLE DELTA CONFIGURATION IN THE REGION.THE GROUP PRODUCED A NUMBER OF SUBFLARE EVENTS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IB. Solaktivitetsprognose
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY MODERATE, BUT THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE EVENT OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS FROM ANY ONE OF REGIONS 8307, 8319, AND 8323.
IIA. Geofysisk aktivitetsoversigt 29-2100Z til 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. HIGH SPEED (500-580 KM/S), LOW DENSITY (1-3 P/CC) SOLAR WIND PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, AND WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A FLUCTUATING, BUT MOSTLY NEGATIVE BZ INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD COMPONENT (RANGING FROM +2 TO -5 NT). THE GREATER THEN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES CONTINUE TO BE HIGH.
IIB. Geofysisk aktivitetsprognose
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Hændelsessandsynligheder 31 AUG til 02 SEP
Klasse M85%85%85%
Klasse X25%25%25%
Proton35%35%35%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm Flux
  Observeret       30 AUG 163
  Forudsagt   31 AUG-02 SEP  170/170/165
  90 dages gennemsnit        30 AUG 119
V. Geomagnetiske A-indekser
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 AUG  011/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 AUG  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 AUG-02 SEP  015/015-015/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetisk aktivitetssandsynlighed 31 AUG til 02 SEP
A. Mellemste breddegrader
Aktiv35%30%20%
Mindre storm05%05%05%
Større-alvorlig storm01%01%01%
B. Høje breddegrader
Aktiv45%30%25%
Mindre storm25%20%15%
Større-alvorlig storm05%05%05%

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