Viser arkiv af fredag, 8 maj 1998

Solaktivitetsrapport

Ethvert nævnt soludbrud i denne rapport har en skaleringsfaktor anvendt af Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). På grund af SWPC-skaleringsfaktoren rapporteres soludbrud som 42 % mindre end for videnskabelige kvalitetsdata. Skaleringsfaktoren er blevet fjernet fra vores arkiverede soludbrudsdata for at afspejle de sande fysiske enheder.
Rapport om sol-geofysisk aktivitet 1998 May 08 2200 UTC
Udarbejdet af NOAA © SWPC og behandlet af SpaceWeatherLive.com

Fælles USAF/NOAA-rapport om sol- og geofysisk aktivitet

SDF nummer 128 Udstedt til 2200Z på 08 MAY 1998

IA. Analyse af solaktive områder og aktivitet fra 07-2100Z til 08-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THREE M-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS: AN M3 AT 0204Z (WITH TYPE II/IV SWEEPS), AND M1 AT 0608Z (WITH TYPE II/IV), AND AN M1 AT 1415Z. NO H-ALPHA FLARES WERE OBSERVED WITH THESE X-RAY EVENTS, BUT SUPPLEMENTAL DATA (EIT AND LASCO) INDICATE THAT REGION 8210, WHICH HAS ROTATED AROUND WEST LIMB, WAS THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE. REGION 8214 (N28W61) WAS ABLE TO MUSTER A C5/1N FLARE AT 1306Z. THE REGION APPEARS TO BE DECAYING AND SIMPLIFYING, ALTHOUGH THE PROXIMITY TO THE LIMB MAKES ANALYSIS MORE DIFFICULT. A NEW B-TYPE GROUP NEAR N26E53 WAS ASSIGNED TODAY AS 8219. REGION 8218 (S20E48) APPEARS TO BE GROWING, BUT WAS FAIRLY STABLE. X-RAY IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE IS A REGION BEHIND THE NORTHEAST LIMB WHICH SHOULD ROTATE INTO VIEW SOMETIME IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IB. Solaktivitetsprognose
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM EITHER REGION 8214 OR 8218.
IIA. Geofysisk aktivitetsoversigt 07-2100Z til 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY ACTIVE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE WERE SOME PERIODS OF MINOR STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES, PARTICULARLY AROUND 07/2100-08/0200Z AND FROM 08/1500-08/1700Z.THE DISTURBANCE BEGAN GRADUALLY: THERE WAS NO CLEAR INDICATOR OF THE ARRIVAL OF A SHOCK AT L1 OR EARTH. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS DURING THE DAY.
IIB. Geofysisk aktivitetsprognose
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERSISTENCE FROM THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE MAY CAUSE SOME LOCAL NIGHTTIME SUBSTORM EFFECTS. PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III. Hændelsessandsynligheder 09 MAY til 11 MAY
Klasse M55%55%55%
Klasse X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm Flux
  Observeret       08 MAY 118
  Forudsagt   09 MAY-11 MAY  115/110/105
  90 dages gennemsnit        08 MAY 107
V. Geomagnetiske A-indekser
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 MAY  010/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 MAY  025/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 MAY-11 MAY  015/015-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetisk aktivitetssandsynlighed 09 MAY til 11 MAY
A. Mellemste breddegrader
Aktiv50%10%10%
Mindre storm15%05%05%
Større-alvorlig storm05%05%05%
B. Høje breddegrader
Aktiv50%10%10%
Mindre storm20%05%05%
Større-alvorlig storm15%05%05%

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