Viser arkiv af fredag, 7 november 1997

Solaktivitetsrapport

Ethvert nævnt soludbrud i denne rapport har en skaleringsfaktor anvendt af Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). På grund af SWPC-skaleringsfaktoren rapporteres soludbrud som 42 % mindre end for videnskabelige kvalitetsdata. Skaleringsfaktoren er blevet fjernet fra vores arkiverede soludbrudsdata for at afspejle de sande fysiske enheder.
Rapport om sol-geofysisk aktivitet 1997 Nov 07 2200 UTC
Udarbejdet af NOAA © SWPC og behandlet af SpaceWeatherLive.com

Fælles USAF/NOAA-rapport om sol- og geofysisk aktivitet

SDF nummer 311 Udstedt til 2200Z på 07 NOV 1997

IA. Analyse af solaktive områder og aktivitet fra 06-2100Z til 07-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST (AND ONLY) C-CLASS FLARE OF THE PAST DAY WAS A C1/SF IN REGION 8103 (N22W33) AT 07/0926Z. THIS REGON IS GROWING SLOWLY BUT REMAINS A SMALL, RELATIVELY SIMPLE SUNSPOT GROUP. REGION 8100 (S19W77) HAS BEEN QUIET SINCE YESTERDAY'S MAJOR FLARE, ONLY PRODUCING A FEW SMALL SUBFLARES. THIS REGION APPEARS TO HAVE SIMPLIFIED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS; HOWEVER, ITS PROXIMITY TO THE WEST LIMB MAKES A COMPLETE ANALYSIS DIFFICULT.
IB. Solaktivitetsprognose
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN REGION 8103. REGION 8100 MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE BEFORE ITS DISK DEPARTURE BUT THIS IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY.
IIA. Geofysisk aktivitetsoversigt 06-2100Z til 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS. MAJOR TO SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED AT MOST STATIONS DURING THE 07/0000-0600Z PERIODS FOLLOWING AN INTERPLANETARY SHOCK ARRIVAL AND SUDDEN STORM COMMENCEMENT (SSC) AT 06/2252Z. THIS SHOCK IS PRESUMED TO BE RELATED TO THE X2/2B FLARE OF 04 NOV. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV AND GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON EVENTS GENERATED FROM YESTERDAY'S X9/2B FLARE REMAIN IN PROGRESS. PROTON EVENT PARTICULARS: GREATER THAN 10 MEV START 06/1305Z AND PEAK (490 PFU) 07/0250Z; GREATER THAN 100 MEV START 06/1245Z AND PEAK (51 PFU) 06/1640Z. THE PCA CONTINUES IN PROGRESS.
IIB. Geofysisk aktivitetsprognose
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED STORM CONDITIONS DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THE X9/2B FLARE DUE TO THE FLARE LOCATION AND THE PRESUMED DIRECTION OF THE ASSOCIATED CME. HOWEVER, IF THE SHOCK ENCOUNTERS THE EARTH TOMORROW, AS EXPECTED, GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LEVELS MAY BRIEFLY BE ENHANCED TO ACTIVE TO STORM LEVELS. THE PROTON EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PROGRESS THROUGH TOMORROW AS FLUXES SLOWLY RETURN TO BACKGROUND.
III. Hændelsessandsynligheder 08 NOV til 10 NOV
Klasse M25%10%01%
Klasse X05%01%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFIN PROGRESS
IV. Penticton 10,7 cm Flux
  Observeret       07 NOV 094
  Forudsagt   08 NOV-10 NOV  090/085/080
  90 dages gennemsnit        07 NOV 090
V. Geomagnetiske A-indekser
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 NOV  013/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 NOV  030/045
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 NOV-10 NOV  030/035-015/030-010/012
VI. Geomagnetisk aktivitetssandsynlighed 08 NOV til 10 NOV
A. Mellemste breddegrader
Aktiv20%20%10%
Mindre storm25%10%05%
Større-alvorlig storm10%05%01%
B. Høje breddegrader
Aktiv20%20%10%
Mindre storm25%10%05%
Større-alvorlig storm10%05%01%

Alle tider i UTC

<< Gå til den daglige oversigtsside

Seneste nyt

Støt SpaceWeatherLive.com!

Mange mennesker besøger SpaceWeatherLive for at følge solens aktivitet, eller om der er nordlys at se, men med mere trafik kommer højere serveromkostninger. Overvej en donation, hvis du nyder SpaceWeatherLive, så vi kan holde hjemmesiden online!

62%
Støt SpaceWeatherLive med vores merchandise
Tjek vores merchandise

Fakta om rumvejr

Seneste X-probeturans15-05-2024X2.9
Seneste M-protuberans19-05-2024M1.6
Seneste geomagnetiske storm17-05-2024Kp6 (G2)
Pletfri dage
Sidste pletfri dag08-06-2022
Månedligt gennemsnitligt antal solpletter
april 2024136.5 +31.6
maj 2024157.5 +21
Seneste 30 dage168.7 +50.9

Denne dag i historien*

Protuberanser
12002X3.07
22001M9.22
32023M8.96
42002M7.2
52002M6.81
ApG
1198143G2
2195639G2
3202332G2
4202124G1
5198430G1
*siden 1994

Sociale netværk