Spookwoman Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Starts tomorrow at 12am G3 kp7 to be expected. http://www.softservenews.com/en/aurora-borealis-breaking-news/aurora-storm-watch-300088.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 This has to do with a coronal hole solar wind stream. NOAA thinks that the stream will arrive tomorrow but we think it is more likely to arrive Tuesday. Not to sure about G3 but G2 should be possible. More at: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/160/20151031-coronal-hole-faces-earth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spookwoman Posted November 1, 2015 Author Share Posted November 1, 2015 Thanks. Thinking of driving up north for it tomorrow. keeping an eye on the alerts as its a 5hr + journey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Just keep an eye on the data tomorrow and Tuesday. When you see signs that the stream arrives (high Bt and density) you can then make your own judgement if it's worth the 5 hour drive. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Stephane Mabille Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Engelsman Finland Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 The -bz and density has moved in the right direction. Now we need to see if it hits... Misses or is traveling real slow. I think we should know by about midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 why is NOAA predicting G3? the coronal hole is not as big as it was the last time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxime Fiset Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 5 minutes ago, danderson500 said: why is NOAA predicting G3? the coronal hole is not as big as it was the last time... It's not only a matter of size. Your wife should've told you that already =P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest GVB Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 The forescast predicts kp level 6 and 7, but I only see in real-time kp 2. Does it mean that the solar wave has not arrived to the earth yet? I am new in this field so sorry if I am asking someting stupid. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Welcome @GVB on the SpaceWeatherLive Community! The CH hasn't arrived yet. As we wrote in our front page article, we already saw it coming that the Coronal Hole wouldn't arrive today, it's more likely to arrive tomorrow, that's why we issued a mid lat watch for tomorrow evening instead of today. The Coronal Hole was a bit smaller than previous rotation and thus speeds are potentially lower and thus arrives later. Nevertheless it's a good time to get familiar with all the Space Weather stuff so ask away if you have questions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 NOAA seems to keep saying G3 why do you think it will be G2 instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 7 minuten geleden, danderson500 zei: NOAA seems to keep saying G3 why do you think it will be G2 instead? We are predicting G2 geomagnetic storm conditions because the coronal hole has shrunk in size and there was only 1 period last rotation where the G3 level was reached. G3 levels will again be possible but the chance is higher that we only see G2 levels is our opinion. But as always it all comes down to just watching the data and see what is going to happen. Nobody knows for sure. I love to be surprised and have a G3 storm of course with aurorae being reported from the entire middle latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest GVB Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 18 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Welcome @GVB on the SpaceWeatherLive Community! The CH hasn't arrived yet. As we wrote in our front page article, we already saw it coming that the Coronal Hole wouldn't arrive today, it's more likely to arrive tomorrow, that's why we issued a mid lat watch for tomorrow evening instead of today. The Coronal Hole was a bit smaller than previous rotation and thus speeds are potentially lower and thus arrives later. Nevertheless it's a good time to get familiar with all the Space Weather stuff so ask away if you have questions Thank you so much! I thought so, but I wanted to be sure and not stay in my house losing the northen lights hehe. One last question, when you say "tomorrow evening" which part of the world are you talking about? I am in Helsinki. It is taking me a while to know all the stuff but little by little I am becoming an "expert" 2 minutes ago, GVB said: Thank you so much! I thought so, but I wanted to be sure and not stay in my house losing the northen lights hehe. One last question, when you say "tomorrow evening" which part of the world are you talking about? I am in Helsinki. It is taking me a while to know all the stuff but little by little I am becoming an "expert" I just saw the update. thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 It will depend a bit on when the stream will arrive exactly. As with all coronal holes it can go slowly, unlike a CME which bangs the door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 and it looks like it is going slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Atki55555 Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Hi everyone Sorry for the newbie question, but even if the stream heads in slowly, is there likely to be any Aurora activity tonight? I'm only in Iceland for a couple of days so desperate to see it, but not too keen on spending all night camped in the car again like last night, where NOAA's predictions proved less than accurate! Any help would be greatly appreciated! Andrew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Welcome Atki55555! No need to be sorry, we are happy to help! The coronal hole solar wind stream has not arrived yet so what we are seeing right now is just ambient solar wind. Iceland is at such a high latitude that aurora can occur there at any time. Even without the solar wind stream you might see aurora there but your chances will increase significantly if the coronal hole stream arrives. However, judging using the data right now we see that the direction of the IMF (Bz) seems to be mostly northward which isn't good for auroral activity. Aurora might still be possible there but as it is now I expect at most only a minor display up there. Tomorrow evening we will very likely still experience the effects of the coronal hole solar wind stream and you will have I'd say pretty much get a 100% chance of catching aurora there in Iceland if the weather cooperates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Atki55555 Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Okay great - thanks for the info! It's so difficult to interpret all of the automated sites, as you never know how often they get updated, and so how reliable they are! At what time would you normally know for definite whether or not anything going to happen tonight - around midnight? Thanks again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 13 minuten geleden, Atki55555 zei: Okay great - thanks for the info! It's so difficult to interpret all of the automated sites, as you never know how often they get updated, and so how reliable they are! At what time would you normally know for definite whether or not anything going to happen tonight - around midnight? Thanks again! We understand it is not easy but just follow us for a few storms, ask questions and read the help articles and you will slowly get a grip on how things work. Our site is also automated but all the data is up to data I can guarantee you that. It's really hard to say as to when to call it a night, you in Iceland need so little for aurora so... f you dare you could just call it a night whenever you wish and go out tomorrow. Chances will be much higher tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Borja Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 Thanks for good explanations, for next time it would be easier to catch an aurora after this info. BTW, how much time there is between the CME happens and gets effect to the earth? I assume is about 45-60min, but just to see if I have time of reaction to find a spot far from the light pollution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 3 minuten geleden, Borja zei: Thanks for good explanations, for next time it would be easier to catch an aurora after this info. BTW, how much time there is between the CME happens and gets effect to the earth? I assume is about 45-60min, but just to see if I have time of reaction to find a spot far from the light pollution. Hello Borja! Welcome! This storm has to do with a coronal hole solar wind stream, not a CME. A CME taken about 2 to 3 days to reach Earth normally but this can be faster or slower. It depends. Not 45 to 60 minutes. Read our help articles for more info: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/help I think you meant to ask how long it takes for solar wind to travel from ACE at L1 (where the data on the site comes from) to Earth. That is indeed about 60 minutes during ambient conditions. The letters ETA above the graphs show how long this takes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest restlesslens57 Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 6 minutes ago, Borja said: Thanks for good explanations, for next time it would be easier to catch an aurora after this info. BTW, how much time there is between the CME happens and gets effect to the earth? I assume is about 45-60min, but just to see if I have time of reaction to find a spot far from the light pollution. About two days as a reasonable average so calm down and enjoy your stay! By the way, this event isn't due to a CME however and, as mentioned on the cover article, is increased Solar wind streaming away from a coronal hole. A different and more subtle by far phenomena. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Atki55555 Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 21 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said: We understand it is not easy but just follow us for a few storms, ask questions and read the help articles and you will slowly get a grip on how things work. Our site is also automated but all the data is up to data I can guarantee you that. It's really hard to say as to when to call it a night, you in Iceland need so little for aurora so... f you dare you could just call it a night whenever you wish and go out tomorrow. Chances will be much higher tomorrow night. Sadly I don't dare, just in case I miss it - that's why I stayed up in my car til 6am last night, just in case it appeared! This is why I was hoping there would be an easy answer as to when we know for sure whether or not anything will happen that night - but if I understand you last post correctly, and it only take 60 mins or so for the solar wind to arrive, I assume that this means that it's possible that things could improve any time up until an hour or so before dawn? Thanks again! Andrew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 4 uren geleden, Atki55555 zei: Sadly I don't dare, just in case I miss it - that's why I stayed up in my car til 6am last night, just in case it appeared! This is why I was hoping there would be an easy answer as to when we know for sure whether or not anything will happen that night - but if I understand you last post correctly, and it only take 60 mins or so for the solar wind to arrive, I assume that this means that it's possible that things could improve any time up until an hour or so before dawn? Thanks again! Andrew Yes, you see all the graphs on the site it takes about 60 mins for that what you see there to arrive at Earth. There is never a way to be 100% sure if or when the lights appear. It is always a waiting game but by watching the data you can improve the odds and make a rough estimate if there will be a chance tonight and how large it will be. It can absolutely still improve in the coming hours as the solar wind stream picks up but when it really kicks of is hard to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Stephane Mabille Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 coronale wind + 110 km / s small impact, density + 90 p / cm 3 no geomagnetic storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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