Just A Question

[AbeH]

I know that this is a very hard question to answer and that there is probably no definite answer but id like to ask anyways. What are the chances of a Carrington Class Event happening in the next oh, Lets say 50 years?

[Maxime Fiset]

12% per 10 years. (Take a 10-sided die and roll for a 10. You could win right away, but it could take 26 rolls. Get me? =P )

 

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/23jul_superstorm/

[AbeH]

12% per 10 years. (Take a 10-sided die and roll for a 10. You could win right away, but it could take 26 rolls. Get me? =P )

 

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/23jul_superstorm/

Wow! 12%! Dosnt that seems a bit on the high side? I mean In terms of astronomical standpoint that seems like the chances are pretty high

[Maxime Fiset]

Wow! 12%! Dosnt that seems a bit on the high side? I mean In terms of astronomical standpoint that seems like the chances are pretty high

It's very high, on an astronomic standpoint. But don't forget it could take CENTURIES.

 

Do make the "10-sided-die-test" : roll a 10, then count how many rolls it takes to get another 10. Every roll is about 8 years.

 

Just done it. Took me 7 rolls. 56 years. Less impressive than 12%, huh?

 

Here, give it a try : https://www.wizards.com/dnd/dice/dice.htm

[AbeH]

It's very high, on an astronomic standpoint. But don't forget it could take CENTURIES.

 

Do make the "10-sided-die-test" : roll a 10, then count how many rolls it takes to get another 10. Every roll is about 8 years.

 

Just done it. Took me 7 rolls. 56 years. Less impressive than 12%, huh?

 

Here, give it a try : https://www.wizards.com/dnd/dice/dice.htm

Thanks it really puts things in a better perspective for me. But thats still very possible in my lifetime so it will be interesting to see when it happens and what will happen.

[Maxime Fiset]

Thanks it really puts things in a better perspective for me. But thats still very possible in my lifetime so it will be interesting to see when it happens and what will happen.

Like I told Danderson, I am MUCH more afraid of what men do to men (and women, eh!). The sun is pretty much like God. It's irradiating energy keeps us all alive, and once in a while something in it blows and the shockwave goes our way. Being afraid of the sun is like being afraid of winter or storms or earthquakes.

 

On the other hand, you NEVER know what another human being can do to you.

 

Don't forget, I'm only a dozen years older than you, it can also happen in my lifetime. As a matter of fact, I am certain it will, but I can't do anything to prevent it, can I?

[AbeH]

Like I told Danderson, I am MUCH more afraid of what men do to men (and women, eh!). The sun is pretty much like God. It's irradiating energy keeps us all alive, and once in a while something in it blows and the shockwave goes our way. Being afraid of the sun is like being afraid of winter or storms or earthquakes.

 

On the other hand, you NEVER know what another human being can do to you.

 

Don't forget, I'm only a dozen years older than you, it can also happen in my lifetime. As a matter of fact, I am certain it will, but I can't do anything to prevent it, can I?

I guess your right but I still am going to try to prepare for anything that may threaten my way of life.

[Maxime Fiset]

I guess your right but I still am going to try to prepare for anything that may threaten my way of life.

Then may I suggest you and your father read this : http://goo.gl/EPj0HG

 

I have read it, and it's very, very interesting ^^

[Guest Stewart Watt]

Wouldn't get to excited or indeed worked up about a possible Carrington event. If it happens it happens and there is absolutely nothing we can do about it and being all melodramatic isnt going to do anything for you either.I wonder how the world would cope without  telecommunication,satellite tv,gps etc should satellites be damaged or indeed destroyed.

This solar cycle has been much weaker than previous ones with activity well down.Perhaps we are going into another Maunder minimum (1645-1715)type event where in say 20 years time we may have no sunspots for decades,no sunspots = no cme's.That would ease the fear that some have.Then you just need to worry about getting hit by an extinction event meteor or perhaps Yellowstone Super volcano erupting again and plummeting the earth into decades of darkness and 'nuclear winter'. ;-)

[Maxime Fiset]

Wouldn't get to excited or indeed worked up about a possible Carrington event. If it happens it happens and there is absolutely nothing we can do about it and being all melodramatic isnt going to do anything for you either.I wonder how the world would cope without  telecommunication,satellite tv,gps etc should satellites be damaged or indeed destroyed.

This solar cycle has been much weaker than previous ones with activity well down.Perhaps we are going into another Maunder minimum (1645-1715)type event where in say 20 years time we may have no sunspots for decades,no sunspots = no cme's.That would ease the fear that some have.Then you just need to worry about getting hit by an extinction event meteor or perhaps Yellowstone Super volcano erupting again and plummeting the earth into decades of darkness and 'nuclear winter'. ;-)

I agree, it also seems that we might be headed into a new "Maunder" minimum. (Thought I hardly see the need to call it "Maunder" too. I'd name it Anthropocene Minimum!)

On the other hand, I know that CMEs can occur during minimums too.

We seem to be getting closer to the 210-ish-years cycle's end. For more information about this, I happen to have an excellent article on the correlation between droughts and solar maximums. Try David A. Hodell et al. SOLAR FORCING OF DROUGHT FREQUENCY IN THE MAYA LOWLAND, Science 292, 1367 (2001) (attached)

Science-2001-Hodell-1367-70.pdf