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Vancanneyt Sander

Active Region 1748 - (X1.7, X2.8, X3.2 & X1.2)

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SpaceWeatherLive Report

Analysis of the Solar Activity May 13th 2013

 


Analysis of the past 24 hours

What a night... what happened very quietly with a background flux around C1 level, May 13th started with a small M-flare (M1.9) just around the corner indicating that a new active region will show up very soon. Shortly after, a second M flare (M1.2) occurred from the same region and followed with a major X1.75 class solar flare at 02:17 UTC. This is the first X-class solar flare since October 2012 and the 9th strongest solar flare of SolarCycle 24.

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-1-0-95599000-1368422419.gifhttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-04562100-1368438307.gif

These are quite a few flares in just one night and the region is not yet visible, can we see a very active region emerging today on the limb? It looks a lot like it!

The M1.9 flare was accompanied with a non-earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection, a second non-earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection was associated with the X1.75 flare.

The X1.7 flare:

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-1-0-22990700-1368422452.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-1-0-87143500-1368422455.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-1-0-94592400-1368422497.jpg

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What can we expect in the upcoming 24 hours?

Due to the constant flare activity from this new region, new flares are possible, even X-class flares. But it will take a few days before we actually see the region fully visible and to determine it's magnetic complexity.

 

M-class flare probability: 70% chance

X-class flare probability: 30% chance

 

We will continue to monitor the activity and post updates on the forum, FacebookTwitter and Google+. Keep following us for the latest information. Got questions or comments? Feel free to post in this topic and we will do our best to help you out! We also have an email alert system which informs you of solar flares, CME impacts and much more.

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Solar Activity Update May 13th 2013

 


After the X1.75 solar flare from this morning, we are now starting to see the region. It is now rotating on the visible solar disk. Part of it's penumbral coverage is now visible. This is also noticeable on the solar x-ray flux monitor which often registrates C-class flares from this region.

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-74283500-1368442277.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-17166500-1368442410.gif

In the mean time we have more details on the CME that was released after the X1.75 solar flare. We are looking at a very wide (partial halo) CME that is not earth directed. The CME left the sun with a speed of about 1000km/sec. Tonight we will hopefully be able to see more of this region. It is not surrounded in faculae and that is a good sign, it seems like it's not in decay.

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Solar Activity Update May 13th 2013

 


Another M-class solar flare (M1.34) just peaked around 12:03 UTC. It again came from this new region which has also been responsible for a M1.9, M1.2 and a X1.7 solar flare. This makes for the third M-class solar flare in 18 hours. The threat for more solar flares remain. The background x-ray flux currently lies around C1. This very active region keeps producing low-level C-class, in fact, all of the flares observed the past 18 hours came from this new region.

 

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-14785900-1368448327.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-81578000-1368448331.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-97939600-1368448466.gif

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Solar Activity Update May 13th 2013

 


Just moments ago the new sunspot region that's rotating on the disk produced the second X-class event of today: a major X2.86 flare! This is what we call a real solar maximum.

 

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-1-0-59490800-1368462343.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-1-0-45332000-1368462351.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-1-0-75605900-1368462418.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-01226700-1368462854.jpg

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Most probably a Coronal Mass Ejection will be associated with the event but will not be Earth directed due to it's position, but with major flares anything can happen. We will monitor the situation closely so keep following us.

The new region emerged today on the limb but doesn't reveal much of it's magnetic complexity, a portion of the region is still behind the limb so we'll have to be a bit more patient until the region gets fully into view. But when we look at the activity of the flare just from today, it's definitely a very complex region and could produce more X-class events. There is also an increasing chance on a radiation storm.

 

Update 17h30 UTC:

LASCO imagery and STEREO-B imagery is available and shows a big and very fast CME from the eastern limb, it's less dense then the previous CME but nevertheless a very big and wide CME with a tremendous speed of 2500km/sec, but not Earth directed.

 

In the mean time we made a video if the X1.75 solar flare from this morning:

 

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Solar Activity Update May 13th 2013


 

Considering the activity we saw today we can expect more fireworks tomorrow  The region is starting to become more and more visible but it stays hard to judge it's magnetic layout. We judge the region now on the activity we saw today, which was very high. The X2.8 eruption lasted almost three hours and 30 minutes and launched a fast CME. The CME had a speed of 2500 km/s. The eruption is now over and the region will start to recover from the blast, hopefully to erupt once more. We do have to note that some faculae is starting to become visible which is often not a good sign. We keep an eye on this.

 

If we look visually at the spot, we see apart from the faculae only one clear spot in the northern part of this region. The other parts looks now like a penumbral mass which most likely consist of a lot of small spots but we can not really say much more at this point.

 

If we look at the magnetic loops that stretch out of the region, we notice more magnetic loops that connect to spots that are still on the farside of the Sun.

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-1-0-35302100-1368478883.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-1-0-69858900-1368479486.jpg

That sure looks promising for the next days when the region unfolds it's hidden spots and rotates fully into view.

We also noticed something in the aftermath of the X1.7 from this morning. Now that LASCO imagery is fully available, some things could be noticed. The CME was very wide in angle and was a type IV sweep, in the LASCO imagery you can notice a very faint growing halo after the X1.7 eruption, it could be that a very minor flank will reach Earth, this also explains the sudden bump in the EPAM monitor and a very slightly rising low energy electrons. We won't notice it anyway if it arrives but was noteworthy to mention.

 

What can we expect in the upcoming 24 hours?

When the region has recovered itself after the X2.8 solar flare we can prepare for more solar flares. M-class flares are very likely and X-class flares remain a real possibility  A protonstorm become more and more likely as the region rotates towards earth.

 

M-class flare probability: 80% chance

X-class flare probability: 40% chance

Proton storm probability: 20% chance

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Solar Activity Update May 14th 2013

5h30 UTC

 


This morning a powerful X3.23 flare occurred from region 1748 making it the best active region of the 24th solar cycle and makes it's third X-class flare in two days after the X1.7 and X2.8 flare from yesterday.

The X3.23 event was associated with a fast and wide Coronal Mass Ejection and could easily be seen in the LASCO imagery, the speed of the CME was around 1700km/sec. The trajectory is not Earth directed, but we do not have all LASCO data available yet (a very weak flank impact could be possible, bot no clear signs of it yet).

 

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-1-0-85973600-1368509697.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-1-0-28235800-1368508937.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-1-0-54621400-1368508941.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-1-0-91736700-1368508959.jpg

 

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The event was also accompanied with a slight rise in the primary solar protons but remains under storm treshold at the moment, an increase can be expected to storm levels as the day evolves and potential new flares can increase the Space radiation storm.

The region is now better in view and shows two delta spots in the region that are clearly visible in the western part of the region. We do expect further chances on X-class flares today and remain on our prognosis.

 

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Solar Activity Update May 14th 2013

Update 14h UTC

 


Active Region 1748 became very calm after the X3 flare from this morning with only a little C-class flares and no big ones. The background flux also dropped to B8-9. If you'd look on the SDO pinhole camera, you would also notice that the region became less bright than yesterday. What happened? Let's find out with the latest SDO images:

The region has lost much of it's magnetic complexity, in the central part of the region the penumbral size shrunk significantly and took place for faculae and thus meaning that the region is in a phase of decay. There is also only one delta spot left that can cause a little bit of flaring but the chances for a major X-class event shrink by the minute.

Let's get back to the X3 flare from this morning, as mentioned in our update this morning we had to wait for all LASCO data before we could do a good analysis, now that's available we can get a clear view on the CME. As with the previous X-flares of this region, the CME was fast and very wide and on the LASCO difference images we notice a halo CME (in this case a partial halo CME), we can expect a slight Earthward component. This was also the case with the previous flares and high latitude regions might prepare for a series of minor impacts starting tomorrow which could cause unsettled conditions up to Kp4. No significant storming is expected from this.

What can we expect later today?

The chances on X-class events has become clearly smaller, only if the region would redevelop everything is possible, but due to the decay that is noticed in the last 12h, the chances are getting lower by the hour.

Chances for M-class events: 50%

Chances for X-class events: 5%

 

In the mean time we have a video of the X2 class solar flare from yesterday:

 

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Solar Activity Update May 14th 2013

Update 22h40 UTC

 


With this type of active sunspot regions with high flare activity it's essential to monitor the spots evolution, so in this late night update we take a new look on the active region and how it evolved, or decayed. The background flux is out of the B level and has risen to C1 with just moments ago a minor C4 class flare from this region. So, can we say this region is restructuring? We can tell by looking at this image we put together of the evolution from this morning (right side of the image), this afternoon (in the middle of the image) and the most recent image from 22h UTC:

 

As mentioned in our last update, the central penumbral area decayed further and the region has now three clusters with some minor spots around them. All X-class flares originated from the most western part of the active region where also the delta spots are. In the last imagery it shows that the largest delta spot evolved further and got stronger and that a tiny spot just south of it also grew in size and also has an opposite polarity. It looks like the western part of the sunspot region is gathering new energy and that we may not say that the activity of this region will be over...

What can we expect later today?

Due to the latest developments we expect that the solar activity will be moderate with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare. If spot development continues in the western part of the region, we might see more activity so we'll keep on monitoring the situation.

 

Chances for M-class events: 60%

Chances for X-class events: 10%

 

In the mean time we have made a video of the X3.2 solar flare which can be found on our YouTube channel:

 

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Solar Activity Update May 15th 2013

Update 5h30 UTC

 


The fourth X-class flare from region 1748 is a fact, an X1.29 flare occurred this morning:

 

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-1-0-86161000-1368595139.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-1-0-52509200-1368595140.png

 

4a79a9d198216cd57684e6d950c419ef

 

This did not came as a surprise, thanks to the renewed energy and the stronger delta spots within the western part of the region, the background flux rose and there where some small C-class flares until a X1.29 flare bursted out. The X1.29 flare was accompanied with a coronal mass ejection with type II and type IV radio sweeps, the CME itself had a speed around 1500km/sec. LASCO images are still not complete as this event is still fresh from the press but from the first imagery we can say that most of the plasma is ejected away from Earth to the east but, like with the other X-class flares, a small Earthward component is noted, the EPAM monitor confirms that there is at least something going our way but it will not be powerfull enough for a major impact, only a minor impact will be expected.

 

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-1-0-84787100-1368595145.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-1-0-14094800-1368595164.jpg

 

There is a slight chance of passing the S1 space radiation storm level, it has enhanced after the X1 flare but it is still below threshold.

What can we expect later today?

The delta structure in the western part of the region is still there so we might see more M-class flares from this region and a chance for an X-class event.

 

Chances for M-class events: 70%

Chances for X-class events: 30%

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Solar Activity Update May 15th 2013

 


Active Region 1748 has been quiet since the X1.2 solar flare with only some small C1 flares that are not even worth mentioning. The background x-ray flux currently lies around B8. The two magnetic delta structures from this morning remain and do interact with the zone of opposite polarity. A third smaller magnetic delta structure has formed in the west of the eastern part of the group. Another major eruption remains possible.

 

We look back at the X1 solar flare from this morning. Now that we have all data from STEREO and LASCO we can finally fully analyze the CME. STEREO Ahead and Behind both showed an earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejection. On STEREO Ahead we could see a full halo Coronal Mass Ejection.

 

 

On LASCO we see a clear asymmetrical full halo CME, which is seen best on the LASCO C3 difference images. This is the image on the right. This is however a weaker part of the CME, the main core of the CME is not directed towards earth.

 

 

The arrival of this latest CME can be expected in the night from 17th till 18th of May and could cause a weak G1 geomagnetic storm with a K-indice of 5. High latitude sky watchers should be alert for aurorae when the CME arrives and skies are dark.

Because of the X1 solar flare, protons reached the S1 storm-level. This storm is still active at the time of writing. The proton storm will most likely continue to intensify for a while but it is not expected to hit the S2 storm-level, unless another eruption occurs from Active Region 1748.

 

A video of the X1 solar flare can be found on our YouTube channel:

 

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I thought we had seen everything of solar cycle 24. A very long time, there didn't happen anything on our star, but now, the sun has awoken. Let's hope the region keeps producing powerful M or even X class solar flares so we might get a good auroral opportunity.

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Solar Activity Update May 15th 2013
 


 

Solar activity past 24 hours

As said in our previous updates, solar activity was high the past day with a X1.2 solar flare early in the morning. It had a partial earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection (scroll upwards to read our previous updates) associated with it. The region went very quiet after the X1.2 solar flare, a bit like what we saw yesterday.

post-1-0-08185400-1368651790_thumb.jpg 

Active Region 1748 stayed stable and after the X1.2 flare it didn't change a lot. The magnetic delta structures are still there, so new M or X-class solar flares remain possible. The faculae that surrounded the region has nearly dissolved and hopefully this will lead to new spot-growth which could revive the region.

Geomagneticly we saw a very weak arrival of a side impact from one of the earlier X-class CMEs. Around 10 UTC we saw a reaction of the IMF and an increase in solar wind speed. Density rose to about 20 p/cm2. As expected this only resulted in a Kp of 3, which means earth's magnetic field was only slightly unsettled.

What can we expect the coming 24 hours?

As long as the magnetic delta structures remain we can expect large solar flares. M-class flares are most likely, but a X-class event remains possible. We do not expect many other flares, as was the case today and yesterday.

 

M-class flare probability: 70% chance

X-class flare probability: 30% chance

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Solar Activity Update May 17th 2013


Solar activity was low the past days with no significant flares from Active Region 1748, the loss of one of it's magnetic delta structures was most likely the cause of this. The group remained stable however with 1 delta structure firmly into place together with a second small delta spot. Chances for more M-class solar flares remain high. Around 21:53 UTC we did saw a minor M1.31 solar flare from this Active Region but it was a short-duration event which had no Coronal Mass Ejection associated with it.

 

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-55305200-1368787062.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-24646400-1368786345.png

 

The strongest solar flare from today just peaked around 08:57 UTC. It was a moderate M3.21 solar flare which had a type II en type IV radio sweep associated with it and a Coronal Mass Ejection which is visible on STEREO images. LASCO data is not yet available so it's not possible to judge yet if there is an earth-directed component associated with this Coronal Mass Ejection. This region is however rotating more and more into a geoeffective position so it is very much possible that a part of the Coronal Mass Ejection is earth-directed. Judging by the first images that we have, it seems that the speed of this Coronal Mass Ejection lies around 1200km/sec.

 

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-19645200-1368787062.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-78489200-1368786349.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-40246100-1368786351.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-10149400-1368787832.jpg

 

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What can we expect the coming 24 hours?

As long as the magnetic delta structures remain, we can expect strong solar flares. M-class flares are likely and there remains a small risk for a X-class event.

 

M-class flare probability: 70% chance

X-class flare probability: 15% chance

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Solar Activity Update May 18th 2013


Solar activity was low the past 24 hours with no significant flares. The largest event of the past 24 hours was a C6.0 solar flare from Active Region 1748 at 03:45 UTC. No CME was associated with this event. Active Region 1748 did show some decay in the center of the region but the two delta structures remain where they are. It still has potential to produce strong solar flares but X-class flares get less likely as time passes.

 

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-20124100-1368874817.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-49425800-1368874821.jpg

 

Coronal Mass Ejection analysis M3.2 solar flare

It took a while but finally we have all the data from LASCO available. In the video below you will see the Coronal Mass Ejection from the M3.2 solar flare (2013/05/17) as it races towards earth. We see a partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection but most of the ejecta will not hit us. A glancing blow is possible during the late afternoon of May 19th which could result in a G1 (Kp5) geomagnetic storm. This is normally not enough for aurorae on the middle latitudes.

 

https://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=459495110804081

 

CME arrival

Just past midnight UTC we saw the arrival of the Coronal Mass Ejection from the X1 solar flare. Solar wind speed jumped to just over 400 km/sec and the density went to about 15 p/cm3. The Bz had a value of about -10nT (south) at impact and even dipping as deep at -14nT around 2h UTC. This caused a G1 geomagnetic storm immediately after impact. The Bz now hovers around +5ntT and this will halt further geomagnetic storming. The Bt was almost 15nT at impact and is at this moment about 8nT. As predicted, a G1 geomagnetic storm developed with a Kp of 5 which later strengthened for a short period to Kp of 6. This triggered our email/Twitter alert system. This means there was a small chance for aurorae on middle latitudes at the time of the alert. High latitudes should have had a nice display when they had dark skies. Did you make pictures? Please post them in our gallery!

  

S1 protonstorm

The S1 protonstorm is likely to drop below storm levels today if no further strong solar flares occur on the sun.

  

What can we expect the coming 24 hours?

As long as the magnetic delta structures remain, we can expect strong solar flares. M-class flares are likely and there remains a small risk for a X-class event.

 

M-class flare probability: 60% chance

X-class flare probability: 10% chance

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Solar Activity Update May 19th 2013


Solar activity was low the past 24 hours with no significant flares. The largest event of the past 24 hours was a C3.4 solar flare from Active Region 1750 at 09:15 UTC. No Coronal Mass Ejection was associated with this event. Active Region 1748 again showed signs of decay and now has the magnatic layout of a Bèta-Delta group . It has a general beta magnetic configuration but contains a delta sunspot. There is still a risk for M-class flares but considering the additional decay that was observed mainly in the negative polarity area surrounding the delta spot, the risks are getting lower and lower as time passes.

 

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-38736800-1368961279.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-47965200-1368961281.png

 

Incoming Coronal Mass Ejection watch from the M3.2 solar flare

We are currently awaiting the arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection watch from the M3.2 solar flare. The Coronal Mass Ejection is expected to arrive late in the afternoon with a plus-minus of 6 hours. As written in our previous analysis, the Coronal Mass Ejection was a asymatric full-halo CME but most of the ejecta will not hit us. A glancing blow is possible which could result in a G1 (Kp5) geomagnetic storm with isolated moments of G2 (Kp6) storming. This is normally not enough for aurorae on the middle latitudes but keep following us for the latest information. If the storm becomes stronger then expected, our automatic email and Twitter alert system will kick into action and keep you updated in real-time.

 

What can we expect the coming 24 hours?

It is starting to look more and more like it is over and out with Active Region 1748. Small M-class flares remain possible but X-class flares will be a thing of the past for now.

 

M-class flare probability: 35% chance

X-class flare probability: 5% chance

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Solar Activity Update May 20th 2013

 


Active Region 1748 has been restless the past 12 hours. We observed multiple C-class solar flares of which an impulsive C9.6 solar flare caught the most attention. How is this possible? Active Region 1748 has developed a bit in the past 24 hours. In the eastern part of the region we start to see a negatively charged umbra in a positively charged penumbra. At the moment we can not say that this is another delta structure but that could change if it continues to develop. Because of these new developments and the delta structure that we still see in the western part of this region, we can now call this group a Beta-Gamma-Delta region again. On the picture below we show you this in more detail. The right arrow shows you the delta spot that has been there for a while now and the left arrow shows the area which has shown some development.

 

 

The impulsive C9.6 solar flare:

 

 

Coronal Mass Ejection arrival:

Yesterday at 22:30 UTC we saw the arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection. This CME was launched by the M3.2 solar flare from May 17th. The impact happened much later then expected and the CME lost much of it's speed. It was a weak impact and the Kp-index did not went above 4 which stands for unsettled geomagnetic conditions. There has been no geomagnetic storming. Solar wind speed rose with 79.26 km/s to 455.5 km/s at impact. The Bt had a value of 13.4 nT and the Bz was constantly north. There were no aurora chances for the middle latitudes.

 

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-61651100-1369068042.gifhttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-65921700-1369068471.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-36791900-1369068471.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-98505300-1369068470.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-65081000-1369068470.png

 

What can we expect the coming 24 hours?

The chances on strong solar flares have increased thanks to the new developments in Active Region 1748 and the return of old Active Region 1731. M-class flares are possible from both old Active Region 1731 and Active Region 1748.

 

M-class flare probability: 45% chance

X-class flare probability: 10% chance

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