Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 (edited) On October 22, 2021 an update was published on Solar Physics. After 3 fails (2019,2020 and 2021) for the date of the Terminator of Solar Cycle 24, the big boys from NASA still think it is imminent this year: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-021-01897-z We used the start of Solar Cycle 25 to find it. Our guess for the latest possible date was the end of October 2021: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/353120822_Relating_the_Start_Of_Solar_Cycle_25_to_the_Terminator_of_Solar_Cycle_24 This isn't the case, and we know now why. You can find it back in our article: * We exclude the value of cycle 14 because it was a weak cycle. In the mean time we found a new theory to calculate the exact strength of an upcoming cycle with an accuracy better then 5.9 percent. We calculated that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to cycle 14. If you look at our paper, then you can find by yourself that the 'Terminator' will happen around August 2022 (10 months from October 2021)... This doesn't exclude big solar events in the mean time, as we have seen already on the Farside... *We exclude the value from cycle 14 because this was a weak cycle, while we expect cycle 25 to be quite strong. *We exclude the value from cycle 14 because this was a weak cycle, while we expect cycle 25 to be quite strong. Edited October 25, 2021 by Patrick Geryl 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abc Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Well, your claim totallly contradict what you have said before. How could you determine which one is correct since they are at the two end of the spectrum? It makes your predictiojs fully unreliable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quilloz Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 46 minutes ago, abc said: Well, your claim totallly contradict what you have said before. How could you determine which one is correct since they are at the two end of the spectrum? It makes your predictiojs fully unreliable I concur, Patrick, you've been consistently saying that we've either already reached the terminator, or are just about to. And in addition kept saying that we'd be getting a stronger than usual solar cycle. Are you huffing the Suspicious0bservers fumes? Besides, it doesn't explain why there's been an uptick in solar flares compared to last year's overall average. Or the lower amount of spotless days compared to the previous years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 There are an unlimited amount of new theories to share until something works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Silver Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 (edited) When in doubt, check what Scott W McIntosh and Robert Leamon say on the topic. They seem to be the most accurate source. The general takeaway seems that we are in a potentially record-breaking solar cycle 25 already, cycles overlap and the terminator lags. And here's something else to argue about : human activity affects the severity of solar weather's impact on Earth: Quote Robert Leamon:"When we talk about global warming, he says, “we’re only talking about the troposphere—the bottom few miles of the atmosphere where we live. But one of the consequences of a warming troposphere is a colder stratosphere,” which extends about 32 miles above Earth’s surface. By keeping more heat closer to the surface, that heat doesn’t escape and warm the stratosphere—and a colder stratosphere intensifies the solar cycle changes by increasing electrical conductivity in the upper atmosphere.In fact, “since the 1950s there’s been a noticeable cooling of the stratosphere to go along with the warming of the troposphere,” Leamon says. Interesting stuff UMBC Scott McIntosh video, cool details at about 20 minutes, discussing the new scientific approach in forecasting cycle 25 Edited October 26, 2021 by David Silver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archmonoth Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 (edited) On 10/24/2021 at 10:23 PM, Patrick Geryl said: We used the start of Solar Cycle 25 to find it. Our guess for the latest possible date was the end of October 2021: If it doesn't happen, then what? On 10/24/2021 at 10:23 PM, Patrick Geryl said: * We exclude the value of cycle 14 because it was a weak cycle.lu What else did you exclude? Edited October 27, 2021 by Archmonoth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monster_Voice Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 On 10/26/2021 at 2:43 PM, David Silver said: When in doubt, check what Scott W McIntosh and Robert Leamon say on the topic. They seem to be the most accurate source. The general takeaway seems that we are in a potentially record-breaking solar cycle 25 already, cycles overlap and the terminator lags. And here's something else to argue about : human activity affects the severity of solar weather's impact on Earth: Interesting stuff UMBC Scott McIntosh video, cool details at about 20 minutes, discussing the new scientific approach in forecasting cycle 25 Please do not tell Florida anything about human activity and the sun... they'll just stand outside and shoot at it like they do with Hurricanes. Lol I too feel we are heading into a big one. Dont know why, but my gut is telling me we are heading into a violent cycle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quilloz Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Monster_Voice said: Please do not tell Florida anything about human activity and the sun... they'll just stand outside and shoot at it like they do with Hurricanes. Lol I too feel we are heading into a big one. Dont know why, but my gut is telling me we are heading into a violent cycle. Same, I always abide by the saying of "The sun does what the sun wants". And right now, it wants to be violent. It's why I can't trust people like Ben or Patrick when they say it'll be quiet - because they're just reiterating what NASA and the NOAA say, and those two have been proven wrong before. I honestly trust Scott's prediction more than anything else simply based on the activity that's happened this year compared to last. Granted, that too could be wrong down the line, but right now it seems to be the most accurate with the charts and data collected thus far. Edited October 31, 2021 by Quilloz 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted October 31, 2021 Author Share Posted October 31, 2021 (edited) 5 uren geleden, Quilloz zei: Same, I always abide by the saying of "The sun does what the sun wants". And right now, it wants to be violent. It's why I can't trust people like Ben or Patrick when they say it'll be quiet - because they're just reiterating what NASA and the NOAA say, and those two have been proven wrong before. I honestly trust Scott's prediction more than anything else simply based on the activity that's happened this year compared to last. Granted, that too could be wrong down the line, but right now it seems to be the most accurate with the charts and data collected thus far. 1. We wrote: Op 25/10/2021 om 07:23, Patrick Geryl zei: If you look at our paper, then you can find by yourself that the 'Terminator' will happen around August 2022 (10 months from October 2021)... This doesn't exclude big solar events in the mean time, as we have seen already on the Farside... 2. Our hypothesis is that 'low sunspot cycles' accumulate their energy and release it in big solar events. So we both can be right! Scott thinks a large SSN cycle, but what if it is a low cycle with big solar events? 3. We have already seen that in solar cycle 24 on July 23, 2012 and in July 2021 in cycle 25 with several proton events! https://www.researchgate.net/publication/355037930_Electromagnetic_Waves_and_Solar_Killshots 4. We will publish our paper about the exact strength of Solar Cycle 25 on Researchgate at the end of November. The Astrophysical Journal almost published it, but then said that every cycle is not the same, while we have one of the highest and one of the lowest cycles in our paper! 5. The Astrophysical Journal rejected our published paper for the same reasons, while it was right... But Astrophysics and Space Science found it valid. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342766380_A_Formula_for_the_Start_of_a_New_Sunspot_Cycle Therefore we keep trying, bit it will be difficult. 6. Another journal was so baffled, that they said it was not for them. Why? A new smoothing method (365 days) and an exact day for the start of a sunspot cycle... Up until now astronomers use a 13-month smoothed method, that is archaic and leads to months of difference between the SSN and 10.7 flux... Ours doesn't... The basic findings were done by Jan Alvestad, who found that Solar Cycle 25 started on November 18, 2019. More details can be found on his website. He also gives the sunspots in high resolution. This way it is better to see if a sunspot is beta-gamma-delta. For instance he listed 2887 as beta-gamma-delta before it exploded in an X1. According to what we know, nobody else did... Correct us if this is not right... Edited October 31, 2021 by Patrick Geryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Seems like SC24 terminator event has occurred! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 10 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Seems like SC24 terminator event has occurred! Wow, I think that’s pretty big news! What does that mean for how this SC will play out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 51 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Seems like SC24 terminator event has occurred! Is that good or bad. Sorry for the dumb question 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Zojuist, Solarflaretracker200 zei: Is that good or bad. Sorry for the dumb question It’s the official dead of SC24, nothing more. 42 minuten geleden, Orneno zei: What does that mean for how this SC will play out? Nothing, SC25 will ramp up just like it has been for the past year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 7 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: It’s the official dead of SC24, nothing more. Sorry, I don’t understand that, could you rephrase? What does “official dead” mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 9 minuten geleden, Orneno zei: Sorry, I don’t understand that, could you rephrase? What does “official dead” mean? Terminated, finito, the end 😜 as with every new cycle, it starts at a high latitude and as the cycle progresses it comes closer and closer to the equator. At the end of a cycle, new cycle spots emerge at a high latitude and old cycle spots near the equator. Apparently, even after spots disappear of the old cycle, the ‘band’ of the old cycle is still there around the equator. The terminator event is the moment when that band disappears and only the new cycle band is active. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 minute ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Terminated, finito, the end 😜 as with every new cycle, it starts at a high latitude and as the cycle progresses it comes closer and closer to the equator. At the end of a cycle, new cycle spots emerge at a high latitude and old cycle spots near the equator. Apparently, even after spots disappear of the old cycle, the ‘band’ of the old cycle are still there around the equator. The terminator event is the moment when that band disappears and only the new cycle band is active. Gotcha, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 17 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Terminado, finito, el fin 😜 como ocurre con cada nuevo ciclo, comienza en una latitud alta y, a medida que avanza, se acerca cada vez más al ecuador. Al final de un ciclo, surgen nuevos puntos del ciclo en una latitud alta y puntos antiguos del ciclo cerca del ecuador. Aparentemente, incluso después de que desaparecen las manchas del ciclo anterior, la "banda" del ciclo anterior todavía está allí alrededor del ecuador. El evento de terminación es el momento en que esa banda desaparece y solo la nueva banda de ciclo está activa. Hello, I was already asking if the "terminator" event arrived since in the previous month there were 11 active regions and it reached almost the same number of spots as the solar cycle 24, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick P.A. Geryl Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 (edited) If true, then our theory is the closest! NASA, when will you give us a job? However we doubt it. There was a possible sc24 yesterday. Also the polar fields are to weak… or the measurements are completely wrong…. Edited January 9, 2022 by Patrick Geryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now