Waiting for the Sun

[goldminor]

This post is about my view of how the 3.4 ENSO region is potentially directly affected by the sun through an unknown process driven by sunspots appearing in either hemisphere of the sun.  I have expressed thoughts on this idea before, but using this section of the SW forum is where these thoughts of mine truly belong. I sometimes can get a bit chatty, and jump in off topic into other conversations. I will pay more attention to avoid doing that in the future. So here we go with the latest updates of interest in my concept of how the sun interacts with temperature changes in the 3.4/ region, and likely in the oceans in general. The 3.4 region shows the clearest signal. That makes sense given the location and size of the area which is so affected by whatever process occurs to cause these temperature shifts.

Here is some comments I made recently over on WUWT. First this is from the 13th "So, here we go with one more bit of correlation for my solar/oceans correlation. A large sunspot group appeared on the southeastern limb of the sun several days ago as the northern sunspot finishes up, and the Tropical Tidbits 3.4 graph showes an upturn in temps in the 3.4 region at the same time. The correlation continues apace."

Next from the 15th "The sunspot which formed in the south earlier this week just faded away. Temps in the 3.4 region rose shortly after that sunspot appeared in the south. Temps in the 3.4 region have now stalled in their recent rise as that south sunspot disappeared. Stay tuned for further evidence of correlation. Imo, if there are no further sunspot groups for the next several days, then temps in the 3.4 region will stall out, maybe rise a bit further, until the next sunspot groups appear to drive temps either up or down."

And lastly this comment which I just made today "Note my comment from yesterday just above. Today’s TT 3.4 graph shows that temps moved sideways from yesterday after the sunspot in the south faded away. So temps in the 3.4 did stall out just as I suggested above. Another notch in my theory of the sun/oceans correlation.".

So notice how I correctly assessed yesterday that following the disappearance of the last sunspot group in the south that temperatures in the 3.4 region would stall out or perhaps continue to rise slightly. In fact we se today that, ...

As I had stated from several days before this is a concept which anyone can now directly follow on their own simply by tracking the daily sunspots, and then viewing the 3.4 region temperature change. This is a new idea which only recently came to mind. Prior to this when using Silso to compare with temp shifts in the 3.4 region I was limited to the time frame of the last update on Silso's excess ssn chart. Their current data on their chart now ends in December of 2019. It never dawned on me prior to this that real time information could be used to assess the potential correlation. So stay tuned, and we all get to find out the truth of this idea of mine with the passage of time as we all "Wait for the Sun".

Lastly, my comments made at WUWT over the last 4 days, ... https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/08/08/upcoming-la-nina-winter-cooler-and-wetter-than-normal/#comment-3058341

[Maxous3]

Could you explain me what you mean by “3.4 région”? Thanks and regards,

[Christopher S.]

8 hours ago, Maxous3 said:

Could you explain me what you mean by “3.4 région”? Thanks and regards,

Give this a read: https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/nino-sst-indices-nino-12-3-34-4-oni-and-tni

In short, it is a region of the Central Pacific used to define El Niño and La Niña conditions.

Edited August 17, 2020 by Christopher S.
The word "north" snuck in there

[goldminor]

11 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

 

In short, it is a region of the Central Pacific used to define El Niño and La Niña conditions.

Thanks for explaining that. I forget that some will not know what the reference was to. Some parts of your previous comments were of interest. You surprised me with your question of "When does the effect start in respect to the position of a given sunspot? Does it start prior to rounding the edge to where it faces the Earth?". That surprised me as I had only had that same exact thought several days prior to your question. I have to say that there is some uncertainly on my part in that regard. However, I think overall that the main effect comes from earth facing spots as that is what Silso is showing with their excess sunspot chart, and the MEI changes always happen after the Silso changes.

[Jim Sinclair]

There is something that I have not seen much attention paid to; the effect of heavy solar wind particles on cloudiness in the upper atmosphere.

It could well be the elephant in the corner of the whole climate science industry.

Does anyone know of any research done on that?

[goldminor]

@ Jim S ...that could well be part of the mechanism that drives this potential correlation which I speak of. Another thought which comes to mind has to do with the idea that the interaction between the magnetic field of the sun interacts with the Earth's magnetic field in such a way that it can cause pressure changes in the atmosphere. That in turn could cause changes in surface wind patterns at the surface. Of interest in that line of reasoning is that back in 2016 after the middle of the year I noted 2 key changes in surface wind patterns which would obviously be of consequence, if they persisted over time. In both cases the changes which caught my attention when using earthnullschool have persisted to this day.

Here is a comment which I made recently in respect to that. ... https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/08/08/upcoming-la-nina-winter-cooler-and-wetter-than-normal/#comment-3050591

"The change was that prior to mid 2016 the typical surface wind pattern down there would push warm air southeasterly through Drakes Passage from a northerly point as high as 20 degrees south latitude. At least just about every time where I would look at that region that is what I would see. Those winds mainly went directly through Drakes Passage.

Then I noticed a shift where the surface winds in this region started moving due east directly into South America. A portion of those winds then started moving north up the west coast of SA just above the tip of SA. After observing this for several weeks it dawned on me that I was witnessing a real change that might well continue on for some time, and that is exactly what has happened to this day. This is the spot which I have been observing ever since then, " … https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-83.23,-39.22,672/loc=-85.480,-40.647

The second consequential spot was a change in the surface wind pattern just to the south of Greenland that has also persisted to this day. I have saved daily screenshots of both regions ever since then. Both changes in wind patterns appeared to be ones which would gradually cause cooling to take place. I believe that this is a major part of the reason why we are seeing the ongoing change in ocean temps along the west coast of South America, and in all of the ENSO regions. Earthnullschool has been a very important tool in aiding me in developing this concept. I save daily screenshots of 22 locations around the planet, and have been doing that for as long as 5 years for some of these locations. On any given day I could recite what the overall global picture of the planet is in terms of cloudiness, temp changes, ocean changes, etc, from memory.

[goldminor]

There is a new sunspot forming in the north. This should cause a drop in temps in the 3.4 region in around 4 days from now. I also noticed that there was an area in the south which almost developed into a full sunspot over the last several days. Did that drive the upswing in temps over the last 36 hours in the 3.4 region?

[goldminor]

Temps in the ENSO 3.4 region started dropping over the last 2 days as that northern sunspot continues on its path. That was a faster reaction than I was expecting. Looks like it has several more days before it crosses around the edge of the sun.

[goldminor]

On 8/20/2020 at 11:20 AM, goldminor said:

Temps in the ENSO 3.4 region started dropping over the last 2 days as that northern sunspot continues on its path. That was a faster reaction than I was expecting. Looks like it has several more days before it crosses around the edge of the sun.

Temperatures in the 3.4 ENSO region have continued to fall through the 21st of this month. The sunspot on the northern hemisphere has just faded away though on the 21st. I would expect that this will stall out the dropping temps in the ENSO 3.4 region, but we shall soon see. There are no sunspots forecast to appear, and the last of the H-plage regions with no sunspots also faded away today. There had been a group in each hemisphere at the start of the 21st. This will be interesting to watch and see what occurs next.

[Jesterface23]

I would highly recommend looking for the source and sites from where the data is observed. There is a reason there are monthly averages and you would really want to know what you are working with and how many sources there are. Continuing with that, it would be recommended looking at other areas around the globe.

[Christopher S.]

20 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

I would highly recommend looking for the source and sites from where the data is observed. There is a reason there are monthly averages and you would really want to know what you are working with and how many sources there are. Continuing with that, it would be recommended looking at other areas around the globe.

I agree. We know the scope of his hypothesis is extremely limited via forcing the observational interpretation to one factor and one arbitrary location, but so far any attempts to enlighten this man have been met with stonewalling and community scorn. Let him believe whatever he wishes, as direct recommendations fall flat.

He's been told of the complexity of oceanic thermodynamics but chooses to ignore it.

He's been made aware of the lag between above average TSI over a period of time and its effects on the surface and oceans, but clings to the idea that effects occur immediately following one factor(confirmation bias). Give that wiki page a good read, goldminor.

He engages in double-talk, frequently altering his hypothesis to suit the current situation.

In summary, he's still building the foundation of a working theory, which is commendable. However, he doesn't want your help, unless it confirms a pretense of his beliefs. While this may sound like a diminishing attack, what I describe is certainly the primary inhibitor of experimental progress. Should he choose to receive the above psychoanalysis in earnest and with thick skin, perhaps reasoning will prevail.

I truly want to see his idea evolve, but if it should not, that's perfectly fine as well. This comment can serve to illustrate the futility of cooperation without some critique of his methods(which need correcting - we are not perfect, and believing so is a fatal flaw)

Edited August 23, 2020 by Christopher S.

[goldminor]

3 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

 

I truly want to see his idea evolve, but if it should not, that's perfectly fine as well. This comment can serve to illustrate the futility of cooperation without some critique of his methods(which need correcting - we are not perfect, and believing so is a fatal flaw)

You are full of false assumptions because of your extreme  bias against a complete novice being able to have an idea worthy of further thought. I do not ignore the complexity of the full climate picture.

I do not cling to the idea of there being an immediate effect between the sun and the 3.4 region. I am watching and wondering about the validity of the thought. I have stated several times that we can all watch for ourselves and then after further observations decide if there is merit to my ideas. How is that clinging to an idea? The only clinging is in your biased outlook.

@ Jesterface ...you speak of looking at other sources, and of using monthly averages. This entire concept starts with Silso's 13 month smoothed excess sunspot chart. Doesn't that qualify as a monthly averaged source? The entire 70 year history shown on their chart correlates with the MEI monthly averaged chart, with changes on the Silso chart preceding temp changes on the MEI chart. Now that could well be nothing but a coincidence, but I think that it is a compelling correlation. So I cling to that according to Christopher the psychologist, a man of many talents.

I am surprised to find that there also appears to be a more immediate reaction between  sunspots and the 3.4 region. That was unexpected. Look at what has happened since May of this year. There have been six coincidental shifts in the 3.4 region as shown on TTs daily chart which have followed the sunspots which have crossed the sun since May. That is a lot of coincidence, and so I continue to observe these coincidences, or as Christopher would say I am continuing to clingingly observe what is happening in nature. Naturally anyone who observes nature has to be clinging to something. Correct?

The last northern sunspot faded away around 36 hours ago. Temps in the 3.4 region continued to drop, but only slightly after that sunspot turned the corner. Today I see that a new H-alpha phage with no spots has appeared in the north. Temps in the 3.4 region have since dropped more substantially. Is there a connection with that. I never thought of that before as I have only paid attention to sunspots. I have no idea, but I will continue to observe to see what the future brings.

[Jesterface23]

Sorry, I missed the topic. I was talking about the SST anomalies. The NOAA CPC here, https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php, uses a 3 month mean. So at this point using daily anomalies we don't know where the data is coming from or how many sources of data there are per day.

[goldminor]

7 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

Sorry, I missed the topic. I was talking about the SST anomalies.

The MEI is similar to the page you linked to. ... https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

That product is updated monthly. I think that they are similarly smoothed over multiple months. Another way to look at the 3.4 region is with this product from Weather Zone in Australia, ... https://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_enso.jsp?c=nino34

Weather Zone also shows the SOI index which is a related indicator to temp changes in the 3.4 region. I can use any of those to make the same argument that they correlates with Silso's excess ssn chart. Tropical Tidbit's 3.4 chart which is displayed further up this post uses current data from NOAA to post daily temp changes in the 3.4 region. Using their daily chart never occurred to me until recently. Even then I did not expect to see such an immediate response. Although it will obviously take many more months of observing this to see if the correlation stays on track. I do not know that. It will take further observations over a longer period of time to form a better opinion.

[goldminor]

Since that last H-alpha phage area disappeared at the end of the 23rd of August the decline in the temperatures in the ENSO 3.4 region slowed dramatically. This suggests that even these H-alpha phage areas could play a role in the solar/ocean connection. There are no sunspots forecast for the near term. I would expect temps to start rising slightly if no sunspots/H-alpha areas appear. So far since the beginning of May and up to the present there have been 8 coincidental correlating interactions between activity on the sun and temperature shifts in the ENSO 3.4 region. In other words every change on the sun since May 1st has been followed by a coincidental change in the 3.4 ENSO region. I am going to start maintaining a daily record on my Wordpress account to track how this plays out over the long term. Then I can update here intermittently so as to limit comments on this site.

[Christopher S.]

1 hour ago, goldminor said:

a coincidental change in the 3.4 ENSO region

That's all it is; a coincidence. Again, give that wiki article about confirmation bias a read.

[goldminor]

Coincidence #9, temps in the 3.4 region warm slightly just as I suggested the other day because there is no active areas on the sun. Temps in the 3.4 region should continue to rise, if no active areas appear.

[goldminor]

Many thanks to Chris S for  his insightful comment where he asked the question " At what point does the sunspot cause the change in the 3.4 region.". I had a similar thought several days before he stated that, but his comment made me refocus my attention as to when exactly an active region might affect change in temps inthe 3.4 region. Now I see that this happens as the sunspot comes around into view around the western rim of the sun. Here is a recent example of this concept. This is a comment I made on the 5th of this month "There is a new active region in the north which will soon come into view. Watch and see if the 3.4 trends back down after this active region turns the corner."

This is what happened today as this new active region appeared in the north today. Over the last month I have successfully called every shift on TTs 3.4 graph several days before the shift takes place.

1 minute ago, goldminor said:

 

This is what happened today as this new active region appeared in the north today. Over the last month I have successfully called every shift on TTs 3.4 graph several days before the shift takes place.

... https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/07/31/frigid-polar-air-brings-very-rare-snowfall-icy-rains-to-southern-brazil/#comment-3309097