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How to Calculate Sunspots Beforehand?


Patrick P.A. Geryl

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Remarks:

. At the start of solar Cycle 25, only the strongest sunspots will be created. However, solar Cycle 25 will increase in strength from August 2020 .

. The sunspots can appear anywhere on the Sun.

. Calculating sunspots is highly complex and time consuming. Sometimes we overlook an alignment and another formula can be found. This will be corrected afterwards.

Here is the complete explanation:

https://www.gsjournal.net/Science-Journals/Research Papers-Astrophysics/Download/8291

Here you can find the calculated sunspots till the end of September...  Problem: Stereo is only working partially: makes it highly complex to see when the sunspots where born... Wasn't a problem in 2014 when I found the theory...

https://www.gsjournal.net/Science-Journals/Research Papers/View/8214

 

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3 hours ago, dynastyll said:

What do the colors mean in the text? And how do you know enough to assume there will be M flares possible?

As far as I can ascertain, the black text is an alignment of planets or large asteroids(like Juno for example), but no alignment with the Sun itself. The purple and red text indicate alignment with the Sun, with opposition/conjunction taken into consideration. I haven't looked too far into this yet but I imagine the purple is distinct from the red based on flares that occurred? I'd like to see a legend at the top of that list. As for the second question, read this paper through and you might understand:

On 8/4/2020 at 8:34 PM, Patrick Geryl said:

https://www.gsjournal.net/Science-Journals/Research Papers-Astrophysics/Download/8291

When I get some free time, I'm going to sit down and give this a thorough read. Thanks for sharing!

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If you have an opposition or conjunction with the planets or planetoids from the formula then a flare is possible. However it is more complicated. By now everybody has read that the Sun induces earthquakes. If you go to GSjournal then you can find thousands of calculations how this exactly can be calculated. However it is so complex that only a computer program can do this. The same principle works for flares. Problem: several sunspots with similar codes make it unbelievable complex. I am good at chess, but we need first class players to unlock the working...

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We have a new sunspot...

1) Calculated for 14:30 August 11, 2020

2) Appeared after noon August 11

3) Formula: I see that I made a fault and that the alignment is bigger then shown. Who can make it right?

4) Location at midnight: S19E56

5) Growth potential: low... Opposition Vesta-Pluto

Who can write all the possible reactions? 

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  • 2 months later...

This is an interesting question... I found they are more related to earthquakes. With the same alignments to calculate sunspots, it is possible to predict earthquakes. However, after years of calculations (tens of thousands!) I found it is indeed possible... but you need a computer program because the alignments needed change every 15 minutes...

https://www.gsjournal.net/Science-Journals/Research Papers/View/7197

More can be found here:

https://www.gsjournal.net/Science-Journals-Papers/Author/2236/Patrick, Geryl

For instance the megaquake in Fukishima was induced by this:

March 2 – 11 (Ends: 01:30!), 2011 : Triple Line Up: Saturn – Mercury – Jupiter

 

End Triple Induces Mega Quake

March 11, 2011: 05:46 UTC Earthquake of 9.0 Fukushima

Tsunami and meltdown of nuclear reactors at Fukushima, Japan!

 

January 20 – March 24, 2011: Long Opposition Saturn – Jupiter across the Sun

Long Pluto – Venus – Vesta alignment

February 5 - March 12 (Ends: 04:00), 2011: Triple Line Up Pluto – Venus – Vesta

 

Long Mercury – Pallas – Pluto alignment

February 14 – March  5 , 2011: Triple Line Up Mercury – Pallas – Pluto

 Long Neptune – Ceres – Venus alignment

February 19 – March 8 (Ends: 04:00) , 2011: Triple Line Up Neptune – Ceres - Venus

 

March  2, 2011: Conjunction Uranus – Mercury

March 2 – 11 (Ends: 01:30!), 2011 : Triple Line Up: Saturn – Mercury – Jupiter

March 4, 2011 : Conjunction Mercury – Jupiter and the Sun

March 4, 2011 : Opposition Saturn – Mercury across the Sun

March 5 – 9 (Ends : 23:45), 2011: Triple Line Up Juno – Mercury - Earth

March 5 - 9, 2011: Triple Line Up Uranus – Mars – Venus

March 8 -  10 (Ends : 16:00), 2011 : Triple Line Up Uranus – Mercury – Earth

March 8 – April 11, 2011: Triple Line Up Venus – Ceres – Chiron

March 10 (Starts: 17:00) -  13, 2011: Conjunction Earth – Juno

 

Moon alignments

March 10, 2011   : Sextile Sun 04:00 – 13:00

March 11, 2011  : Sextile Uranus  01:30 – 09:00

March 11, 2011  : Square Chiron – Moon – Earth starts at 05:36!

March 11, 2011  : Sextile Mercury  07:30 – 16:30

Conclusions:

The conjunction Juno – Earth which starts a few hours before the quake is strongly correlated, because Juno is in extreme long line ups with Chiron.

The 2 sextiles are a big factor in the quake. The start of the sextile with Mercury is 2 hours from the quake, while the sextile with Uranus is in the middle of its alignment.

The Triple Saturn – Mercury – Jupiter  ends on 01:30 March 11… then this should send a lot of energy to Mercury, reactivating the Triple Line Up Uranus – Mercury – Earth that ended a few hours before, and sending an enormous amount of energy to the sextile with Mercury…

 

 Considering the next weeks...

Nothing big expected... Maybe a 7 plus on October 25?

 

October 25, 2020

January 24 (03:00) – March 11, 2021 (11:00), 2020 Triple Line Up   Pluto -  Jupiter – Pallas

October 11 (21:00)- 27 (13:00), 2020 Triple Line Up    Saturn – Pallas – Mercury

October 16 (03:00) – November 20 (10:00), 2020: Conjunction Jupiter - Saturn and the Sun

October 18 (22:30)- 31 (21:30), 2020 Triple Line Up    Uranus  - Mars – Juno

October 21 (04:30)- November 3 (11:00), 2020 Triple Line Up   Saturn – Jupiter- Venus

October 22 (22:00) – 25 (12:15), 2020: Opposition Venus - Jupiter  across the Sun

October 23 (07:00) – 25 (19:00), 2020: Opposition Venus - Saturn  across the Sun

October 24 (12:30) – 25 (03:30), 2020: Conjunction Mercury - Mars and the Sun

October 25 (11:30) – 26 (01:00), 2020: Conjunction Mercury - Earth and the Sun

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Patrick Geryl
wrong alignment
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Ah yes,

 

Mind: You mention the HIGH of the conjunction, while you need to apply 3.5 degrees to both sides!

October 16 (03:00) – November 20 (10:00), 2020: Conjunction Jupiter - Saturn and the Sun

 

There are only 2 sunspots relevant for that time period. 

October 22 (22:00)

September 30 (14:00)- October 24 (21:30), 2020 Triple Line Up   Saturn – Jupiter- Vesta

October 21 (04:30)- November 3 (11:00), 2020 Triple Line Up   Saturn – Jupiter- Venus

October 22 (22:00) – 25 (12:15), 2020: Opposition Venus - Jupiter  across the Sun

October 23 (07:00) – 25 (19:00), 2020: Opposition Venus - Saturn  across the Sun

 

October 27 (13:00),

October 11 (21:00)- 27 (13:00), 2020 Triple Line Up    Saturn – Pallas – Mercury

October 16 (03:00) – November 20 (10:00), 2020: Conjunction Jupiter - Saturn and the Sun

October 21 (04:30)- November 3 (11:00), 2020 Triple Line Up   Saturn – Jupiter- Venus ?

October 26 (15:45) – 29 (08:30), 2020: Opposition Venus - Pallas  across the Sun

October 27 (11:30) – 28 (03:30), 2020: Opposition Mercury – Juno   across the Sun

So i don't think something relevant is possible. On the other hand conjunctions and oppositions are related to the barycenter. This influences the polar fields as explained in my sunspot theory:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329023855_A_New_Mathematical_and_Physical_Principle_to_Combine_Gravitation_with_Rotating_Oscillating_Magnetic_Fields_A_unifying_algorithm_that_solves_the_Sun's_differential_rotation_problem

In 2011 we had January 20 – March 24, 2011: Long Opposition Saturn – Jupiter across the Sun

The 'Terminator' started in February 2011 with a 'SWITCH' from the northern polar field a few weeks earlier...

https://news.ucar.edu/132675/terminators-sun-trigger-plasma-tsunamis-and-start-new-solar-cycles

 

So what will happen now? According to what I see the northern polar field could go to an absolute value of 100... The 'Terminator' will be than for a few months later.

WE WILL KNOW LATE DECEMBER IF THIS IS THE RIGHT CONCLUSION

Date to watch:

 

November 15 (00:45)

November 12 (02:15)- 20 (14:00), 2020 Triple Line Up    Vesta – Venus - Jupiter

November 14 (02:00) – 17 (16:00), 2020 Triple Line Up   Vesta – Mercury - Pallas

November 14 (04:00)- 20 (04:45), 2020 Triple Line Up   Mercury – Ceres – Neptune

November 15 (00:45) – 16 (15:45), 2020: Conjunction Mercury - Venus and the Sun

November 15 (14:00)- 23 (20:15), 2020 Triple Line Up   Venus – Ceres – Neptune

November 15  (22:15) - 18 (16:30), 2020 Triple Line Up   Uranus – Earth - Mercury

 

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You might as well try and predict the result of the upcoming US election using planetary/solar alignment information. The tectonic plates are shifting all the time - there are many earthquakes each day but most of them are pretty insignificant. With all due respect this has all the hall marks of astrological prediction rather than scientific.

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18 hours ago, Brian Halls said:

You might as well try and predict the result of the upcoming US election using planetary/solar alignment information. The tectonic plates are shifting all the time - there are many earthquakes each day but most of them are pretty insignificant. With all due respect this has all the hall marks of astrological prediction rather than scientific.

While I understand where your diminishing remark comes from, since I myself don't understand a few things about Geryl's notes(as in, the color of the font seeming to represent something, and he has not clarified on what it means) Astrology is far from what he's doing.

Astrology is the precursor to Psychology as well as Astronomy, but primarily the former. It is a way that Ancient Greeks and other civilizations related the spots in the sky to themselves.

Patrick Geryl is relating the alignment of planets to the incidence of sunspots. There is nothing fantastical, romantic, or subliminal about it. In theory, it makes sense to think about the alignment of planets in this way - only so far as one's understanding of gravity, or the curvature of space-time goes of course - so of course the alignment of celestial bodies is a stereotypical and mystical representation of astrological significance, but that is not at all what Geryl is presenting for us. There is nothing in his work that represents a relation of these alignments to things on Earth.

So, in other words, your reductive ridicule doesn't exactly hit the nail on the head. Try again.

A question for Patrick Geryl:

What do the different colors of font represent?

Edited by Christopher S.
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8 minuten geleden, Christopher S. zei:

While I understand where your diminishing remark comes from, since I myself don't understand a few things about Geryl's notes(as in, the color of the font seeming to represent something, and he has not clarified on what it means) Astrology is far from what he's doing.

Astrology is the precursor to Psychology as well as Astronomy, but primarily the former. It is a way that Ancient Greeks and other civilizations related the spots in the sky to themselves.

Patrick Geryl is relating the alignment of planets to the incidence of sunspots. There is nothing fantastical, romantic, or subliminal about it. In theory, it makes sense to think about the alignment of planets in this way - only so far as one's understanding of gravity, or the curvature of space-time goes of course - so of course the alignment of celestial bodies is a stereotypical and mystical representation of astrological significance, but that is not at all what Geryl is presenting for us. There is nothing in his work that represents a relation of these alignments to things on Earth.

So, in other words, your reductive ridicule doesn't exactly hit the nail on the head. Try again.

A question for Patrick Geryl:

What do the different colors of font represent?

Red = conjunction or opposition

Black = Triple Line Up = 3 planets in 1 line

You can only form a sunspot if there is a conjunction or opposition

For instance on November 15 there is a conjunction:

November 15 (00:45) – 16 (15:45), 2020: Conjunction Mercury - Venus and the Sun

At that moment 5 planetary alignments with Venus or Mercury are active which gives this formula:

 

November 15 (00:45)

November 12 (02:15)- 20 (14:00), 2020 Triple Line Up    Vesta – Venus - Jupiter

November 14 (02:00) – 17 (16:00), 2020 Triple Line Up   Vesta – Mercury - Pallas

November 14 (04:00)- 20 (04:45), 2020 Triple Line Up   Mercury – Ceres – Neptune

November 15 (00:45) – 16 (15:45), 2020: Conjunction Mercury - Venus and the Sun

November 15 (14:00)- 23 (20:15), 2020 Triple Line Up   Venus – Ceres – Neptune

November 15  (22:15) - 18 (16:30), 2020 Triple Line Up   Uranus – Earth - Mercury

 

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20 uren geleden, Christopher S. zei:

What about purple font?

That is the END of an alignment in a conjunction or opposition. IT MAKES THE SUNSPOT A LOT STRONGER AND ALSO ADDS THE PLANETS FROM THE TRIPLE TO THE FORMULA.

For instance this sunspot was formed on October 20 => on the right

 

oct21_2020_disk.jpg

October 20 (14:30)

October 17 (19:15) – 20 (22:00), 2020 Triple Line Up   Juno  – Mercury - Earth

October 17 (19:15) – 20 (22:00), 2020 Triple Line Up   Juno  – Mercury - Earth

October 19 (03:15)- 20 (18:00), 2020 Triple Line Up    Vesta – Venus - Mercury

October 19 (03:15)- 20 (18:00), 2020 Triple Line Up    Vesta – Venus - Mercury

October 20 (14:30) – 21 (09:15), 2020: Conjunction Mercury - Chiron and the Sun

Edited by Patrick Geryl
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This is the calculated sunspot from October 22 (see higher)

Became active after the end of the purple line

September 30 (14:00)- October 24 (21:30), 2020 Triple Line Up   Saturn – Jupiter- Vesta

October 22 (22:00)

September 30 (14:00)- October 24 (21:30), 2020 Triple Line Up   Saturn – Jupiter- Vesta

October 21 (04:30)- November 3 (11:00), 2020 Triple Line Up   Saturn – Jupiter- Venus

October 22 (22:00) – 25 (12:15), 2020: Opposition Venus - Jupiter  across the Sun

October 23 (07:00) – 25 (19:00), 2020: Opposition Venus - Saturn  across the Sun

AR_S6586_20201025_2345.png

 

This sunspot could react to these alignments:

October 26 (15:45) – 29 (08:30), 2020: Opposition Venus - Pallas  across the Sun 

October 29 (19:00) – 31  (21:15), 2020: Conjunction Vesta – Venus  and the Sun

Continuing growth from:

October 21 (04:30)- November 3 (11:00), 2020 Triple Line Up   Saturn – Jupiter- Venus

Follow here:

https://www.solen.info/solar/

 

Op 24/10/2020 om 06:02, goldminor zei:

Are those two active areas in the northern hemisphere considered remnants from the last gasp of SC 24?

spacer.png

SC 24 will end when the Terminator ends in about 6 months

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Remark from the website of Jan Alvestad: New region 12778 [S20W15] was first observed with spots on October 22!

This is clearly our calculated sunspot

Update October 27

New region 12778 [S20W15] was first observed with spots on October 22, then decayed before reemerging with many spots on October 25. The region was numbered by SWPC on October 26. On October 26 the region displayed some decay until the afternoon. Early on October 27 new flux is emerging quickly and the region has a high chance of producing C flares and a chance of a minor M class flare. Polarities are intermixed at the center of the region.

AR_12778_20201026_2345.png

Update October 28

Region 12778 [S20W28] developed further and is a magnetically complex and compact region with many spots. The region had 2 minor magnetic deltas in the trailing spot section at the end of the day and has a fair chance of producing an M class flare.

 

AR_12778_20201027_2345.png

Edited by Patrick Geryl
unspot = sunspot
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Interesting stuff, indeed. I hadn't realized that the conjunction I remarked on, Saturn-Jupiter-Sun, is/could be the "amplifier" of this sunspot and potentially others. The quickly strengthening/increasing complexity lends validity to your work, Patrick. I will now be more tentative with the dates listed here in this post:

On 10/13/2020 at 2:15 AM, Patrick Geryl said:

November 12 (02:15)- 20 (14:00), 2020 Triple Line Up    Vesta – Venus - Jupiter

November 14 (02:00) – 17 (16:00), 2020 Triple Line Up   Vesta – Mercury - Pallas

November 14 (04:00)- 20 (04:45), 2020 Triple Line Up   Mercury – Ceres – Neptune

November 15 (00:45) – 16 (15:45), 2020: Conjunction Mercury - Venus and the Sun

November 15 (14:00)- 23 (20:15), 2020 Triple Line Up   Venus – Ceres – Neptune

November 15  (22:15) - 18 (16:30), 2020 Triple Line Up   Uranus – Earth - Mercury

I'm very much more of a theoretical physicist than I am anything else, in relation to astrophysics. I'm wondering whether the two largest gas giants in a conjunction with the Sun will be much more significant in the function of amplifying sunspot activity than these other line-ups and conjunctions. What do you think, Patrick? Is their gravitational force together only slightly more effective in this function, or an order of magnitude greater than those smaller celestial bodies?

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Christopher,

Read this article https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.01854

Conclusion: the planets have  a great influence on the angular momentum of the magnetic equatorial field and ALSO on the magnetic polar fields!

Here you can find my MAGNETIC sunspot theory

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329023855_A_New_Mathematical_and_Physical_Principle_to_Combine_Gravitation_with_Rotating_Oscillating_Magnetic_Fields_A_unifying_algorithm_that_solves_the_Sun's_differential_rotation_problem

Here is the end result:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333445984_2_Solutions_for_the_Axial_Dipole_Field_In_Phase_and_in_Anti-Phase

 

ONLY CONJUNCTIONS OR OPPOSITIONS WITH MERCURY OR VENUS IN COMBINATION WITH A TRIPLE WITH ALSO VENUS OR MERCURY ARE POWERFUL.

Triple Line Up   Saturn – Jupiter- Venus

The most powerful are with Mercury

Triple Line Up   Saturn – Jupiter- Mercury

A Triple with VESTA is very powerful. It is in the formula;

September 30 (14:00)- October 24 (21:30), 2020 Triple Line Up   Saturn – Jupiter- Vesta

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8 minutes ago, Patrick Geryl said:

Christopher,

Read this article https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.01854

Conclusion: the planets have  a great influence on the angular momentum of the magnetic equatorial field and ALSO on the magnetic polar fields!

Here you can find my MAGNETIC sunspot theory

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329023855_A_New_Mathematical_and_Physical_Principle_to_Combine_Gravitation_with_Rotating_Oscillating_Magnetic_Fields_A_unifying_algorithm_that_solves_the_Sun's_differential_rotation_problem

Here is the end result:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333445984_2_Solutions_for_the_Axial_Dipole_Field_In_Phase_and_in_Anti-Phase

 

ONLY CONJUNCTIONS OR OPPOSITIONS WITH MERCURY OR VENUS IN COMBINATION WITH A TRIPLE WITH ALSO VENUS OR MERCURY ARE POWERFUL.

Triple Line Up   Saturn – Jupiter- Venus

The most powerful are with Mercury

Triple Line Up   Saturn – Jupiter- Mercury

A Triple with VESTA is very powerful. It is in the formula;

September 30 (14:00)- October 24 (21:30), 2020 Triple Line Up   Saturn – Jupiter- Vesta

I just read the first section of the arxiv.org paper you linked. I understand enough of what the paper is aiming to accomplish to see from where your conclusion is derived, and I'll read more when I wake up for tomorrow. This makes a lot more sense than what I had presumed was a gravitationally-based hypothesis only.

I appreciate the clarification

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Region 12778 [S20W41] decayed after noon as the opposite polarity fields drifted further apart. There appears to be no remaining polarity intermixing.
New region 12779 [S17W32] emerged very quickly after noon and became a compact region with a magnetic delta structure at its center. M class flaring is possible.

It is clear that the 2 sunspots interact: 1 goes down while the other goes up on the same time. So the formula has to be related. Originally I thought the alignment Saturn – Jupiter- Venus would go to the sunspot to be born on October 27. For some reason it must have jumped a day later to the other one.12779 emerged very quickly because it should have originally be born on October 27 instead of October 28

October 22 (22:00)

September 30 (14:00)- October 24 (21:30), 2020 Triple Line Up   Saturn – Jupiter- Vesta

October 21 (04:30)- November 3 (11:00), 2020 Triple Line Up   Saturn – Jupiter- Venus

October 22 (22:00) – 25 (12:15), 2020: Opposition Venus - Jupiter  across the Sun

October 23 (07:00) – 25 (19:00), 2020: Opposition Venus - Saturn  across the Sun

 

October 27 (13:00),

October 11 (21:00)- 27 (13:00), 2020 Triple Line Up    Saturn – Pallas – Mercury

October 16 (03:00) – November 20 (10:00), 2020: Conjunction Jupiter - Saturn and the Sun

October 21 (04:30)- November 3 (11:00), 2020 Triple Line Up   Saturn – Jupiter- Venus ?

October 26 (15:45) – 29 (08:30), 2020: Opposition Venus - Pallas  across the Sun

October 27 (11:30) – 28 (03:30), 2020: Opposition Mercury – Juno   across the Sun

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

STRONG EVIDENCE FOR THE PREDICTED AND CALCULATED SUPERSTRONG SUNSPOT

 

A FEW WEEKS AGO WE PUBLISHED THIS

DATE TO WATCH

November 15 (00:45)

November 12 (02:15)- 20 (14:00), 2020 Triple Line Up    Vesta – Venus - Jupiter

November 14 (02:00) – 17 (16:00), 2020 Triple Line Up   Vesta – Mercury - Pallas

November 14 (04:00)- 20 (04:45), 2020 Triple Line Up   Mercury – Ceres – Neptune

November 15 (00:45) – 16 (15:45), 2020: Conjunction Mercury - Venus and the Sun

November 15 (14:00)- 23 (20:15), 2020 Triple Line Up   Venus – Ceres – Neptune

November 15  (22:15) - 18 (16:30), 2020 Triple Line Up   Uranus – Earth - Mercury

By my knowledge there hasn't been a strong sunspot on the farside for this cycle... Can anybody confirm?

This is from the farside on November 14

mrfqg201114t1200.jpg

This is from the farside on November 15!

mrfqg201115t0000.jpg

November 16...

mrfqg201116t1200.jpg

November 17...

mrfqg201117t1200.jpg

 

http://jsoc.stanford.edu/data/farside/

https://farside.nso.edu/archive.htm

 

Edited by Patrick Geryl
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