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Javier

Current knowledge of Solar-Terrestrial Coupling

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This figure is taken from D.N. Baker 2000 "Effects of the Sun on the Earth’s environment" at the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. He credits NASA for making it.

As it is 20 years old, my question is if this figure is (still) a fair representation of our knowledge of the the flow of mass, momentum, and energy from the Sun to the Earth, or if in your opinion there is something wrong with it and/or if it is missing something important. Thank you.

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There are a couple of possibilities could be added.

Neutrinos from the solar interior to Earth's interior.

Heavy neutral particles from the solar wind to all layers of the atmosphere and from Cosmic rays.

These are both hard things to measure so we don't know a lot about either of them.

Radio noise mainly from the photo-sphere I think. Causes a blackout period for geostationary satellites.

Jim.

 

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On 7/31/2020 at 3:04 AM, Javier said:

@Jim Sinclair Thank you. Those are interesting. I'll look them up.

Javier, note how temps in the ENSO regions are dropping as sunspots form in the northern hemisphere of the sun. My concept of the sun/ocean correlation is gaining validity week by week. The sun dorectly drives temp changes in the 3.4 region mainly, but this also affects other regions of the global oceans.

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39 minutes ago, goldminor said:

Javier, note how temps in the ENSO regions are dropping as sunspots form in the northern hemisphere of the sun. My concept of the sun/ocean correlation is gaining validity week by week. The sun dorectly drives temp changes in the 3.4 region mainly, but this also affects other regions of the global oceans.

While indeed the Sun is responsible for heating the Earth, sun spots are not. Unless you can show the correlation you speak of, I present an argument against it.

You assert that ENSO region temperatures are dropping in response to sun spot formation in the NH of the Sun. The current sun spots had formed on the far-side of the sun, so they are easily 2-3 weeks old now. So, is the temperature drop in response to their formation, or is it in response to these sun spots being on the Earth-facing side of the sun?

In 2015, several NH sun spots can be found coinciding with anomalously warm, not cold, ENSO region temps(Northern Central- and Eastern- Pacific SSTs as well), which you can review from these two sources: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2015/08/07/dayobs for the archive showing sun spots(starting 2 full rotations prior to the formation of Hurricane Oho on Oct. 3rd) and here https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-storm-oho-hurricane-northwest-british-columbia for the summary of the conditions which led to a very strange tropical system which took an odd path along anomalously warm waters.

If that isn't enough for you, then may I remind you that you are claiming that the correlation between the sun spots and SSTs(or plainly "ENSO region temps" as you put it, which I take to mean SSTs) is very strong, and thus that climatic temperature fluctuations are overridden by these relatively small and few sun spots being exposed to Earth in less than half of a solar rotation.

In short, there is data which suggests exactly the opposite of your claim in those two links. There is no validity to it, unless you can show otherwise. Please don't take this as an attack and shut down, I sincerely want to understand your perspective and learn from it.

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On 7/30/2020 at 8:26 PM, Jim Sinclair said:

Radio noise mainly from the photo-sphere I think. Causes a blackout period for geostationary satellites.

Jim.

Solar flares from the photosphere can also cause terrestrial HF radio blackouts (aka sudden ionospheric disturbance or "SID").  X-ray radiation from a flare strongly ionizes the D-layer of the ionosphere, the layer closest to the Earth (30-60 miles altitude).  Skip propagation requires refraction of the radio signals from the higher layers of the ionosphere (E and/or F).  The blackout period occurs because the abnormally high ionization of the D-layer absorbs these radio transmissions.  The blackout period may last from seconds to hours before the D-layer settles to normal ionization. 

Since signals from geosynchronous satellites must pass through the D-layer to reach Earth, I presume this is the same mechanism for the blackout of communications between Earth and satellites (only sunlit Earth side).

A highly disturbed geomagnetic field (high K or A index) can also disrupt HF communications, affecting the upper layers of the ionosphere; though conductive ionized gas from Auroras can enhance propagation for radio frequencies above 20MHz (including VHF).

The D-layer disappears at night and quickly reconstitutes in daylight.  I shudder to think what the terrestrial effect might be of a strong solar flare at dawn aimed at Earth before the D-layer has reconstituted (shields down). 

 

Edited by Drax Spacex
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Hi Drax Spacex,

All you say is true but I was referring to the continuous thermal noise. When a geostationary satellite passes across the face of the sun or within a couple of degrees of that direction the thermal noise is strong enough to swamp out the satellite signal.

Jim.

 

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Ah OK thanks for elaborating - if I understand, in such case, it's not the satellite signal affected by space weather, but the Earth receiver being affected by thermal noise when pointed near the Sun.  i.e. while the satellite signal S is unaffected, the (S+N)/N ratio at the Earth receiver is dominated by solar thermal noise N.

Edited by Drax Spacex

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21 hours ago, Drax Spacex said:

The D-layer disappears at night and quickly reconstitutes in daylight.  I shudder to think what the terrestrial effect might be of a strong solar flare at dawn aimed at Earth before the D-layer has reconstituted (shields down).

What effect?  The flare just super charges the D-layer, creating an electrical “fog” or blanket on the ionosphere, resulting in the medium wave band (and even higher) skywave being “midday dead quiet”! 

 

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On 8/2/2020 at 12:40 PM, Christopher S. said:

In short, there is data which suggests exactly the opposite of your claim in those two links. There is no validity to it, unless you can show otherwise. Please don't take this as an attack and shut down, I sincerely want to understand your perspective and learn from it.

To understand my concept we need to look at the charts in question. Here is one of the key charts. Note that the southern hemisphere is holding the excess ssn count into mid 2015. Then as you point out the excess sunspots shift to the north after the middle of 2015. The ENSO 3.4 region does not respond immediately to this change. It takes some months, especially when the south had been strongly dominant for several years preceding the middle of 2015. That last large El Nino started to form around the end of spring of 2014. Note how Silso shows excess sunspots in the south starting early in 2014. The sun goes first, and the MEI follows some months later.

There is also several other factors which affects the ENSO regions, the wind and gravity. After a strong El Nino gravity takes over to slosh the water back to the west across the ENSO regions. The sun is not going to be able to influence that process.Then there is a question of does the sun affect surface winds at the Equator? Is that part of the mechanism which creates the connection between the sun and the ENSO regions1961370918_MEI...12118lastonebeforechange.png.e82eb5cf33bdaa11f5c8b7f843f788a2.png?  ... wnosuf.png

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7 hours ago, Kaimbridge said:

 

What effect?  The flare just super charges the D-layer, creating an electrical “fog” or blanket on the ionosphere, resulting in the medium wave band (and even higher) skywave being “midday dead quiet”! 

 

The usual depiction of the D layer is that the ionization level builds up incrementally in daylight.    On the dawn side of the gray line, the D layer would not yet exist.  The near-relativistic initial hit from a strong solar flare would be a glancing impact (90° incident angle) along the dawn gray line.  I was pondering whether that is a region of particular vulnerability.  It's off-topic but an interesting question (I think) which probably could be answered from scavenging data from strong solar flares in recent decades.

Is "Solar Wind" in the right spot on this chart?  It has a direct line to "Corona".  But don't coronal holes (the localized thinning of the corona) give rise to strong solar winds, the particle source of the solar wind from a layer below the Sun's corona (chromosphere).  Maybe add an extra solid or dotted line(s) somewhere to depict the phenomenon of coronal holes and effect on solar wind, and the particle source of solar wind.

Edited by Drax Spacex
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@goldminor I like your theory.  I am summarising it as I understand it (engineer not an astronomer/solar physicist) when the sun has more activity in a particular hemisphere, more energy arrives on earth and warms oceans and vice versa.  This paper from NASA explains the 40 year cycle  https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/science/plasma-flow.html

This paper shows the PDO going back to 1900 so you can see the previous flip from warm to cool.  http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/

This shows the correlation between PDO and temps  https://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/isolate:240/mean:60/scale:14/from:1918/plot/jisao-pdo/from:1918/isolate:240/mean:60

PDO mean over 20 years  https://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/jisao-pdo/mean:240

AMO mean over 20 years https://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-amo/mean:240

and unadjusted temperatures in iceland at the end of the ocean circulation belt  https://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/stdata_show_v3.cgi

Obviously the oceans have a huge thermal capacity and would lag any inbound influence by at least 20 years

Then someone just has to show how the major planets influence the sun and their cycles and this adds into the interplanetary clocking system that someone explored earlier this year.

Of course as scientists we know correlation does not equal causation and it could all be an interesting coincidence...

 

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