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KieleMoani

Intensity of solar cycles and Earth weather correlations

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Hi, I'm new to posting and I'm a student at WWU who has been researching the solar cycles for a little while, so if this topic has already been discussed, my apologies...

I've been exploring a hypothesis that inquires whether / how sunspot activity influences Earth's barometric pressure differentials, and in turn, weather conditions at the surface.  In Washington, certain urban areas experienced extreme summer drought conditions (strong enough to cause noticeable tree dieback) and extremely snowy winters when there were some major sunspot events during the maximum (especially in 2015).  And now while we've had minimal sunspot activity so far this year (apart from an event in late May that correlated with sudden local temperature increases into the 80s), our winter up until early July has been milder (less intense high or low temperature swings) than during the maximum.  I know that correlation does not prove causation, but as we're taught in meteorology, uneven solar heating of the Earth's surface drives weather and the intensity of high and low pressure systems which in turn drive fair weather or storm systems.  Sunspot activity can result in Earth being exposed to higher levels of radiation, no?

I have found a couple of papers that address this topic but the results are inconsistent.  One paper measured the pressure in the tropics while another measured the pressure at a station in the upper latitudes.  I'm wondering if the results are inconsistent because the sunspot and extreme weather responses are seasonally dependent; in other words regional weather responses will depend on the location and degree of Earth's tilt (seasonal amount of exposure to solar radiation) at the time of an extreme sunspot event.

Does my inquiry make sense?

Do any of you know of other information related to this topic?

Thanks.

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Exploring recent trends in Northern Hemisphere blocking
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2013GL058745%4010.1002/(ISSN)1944-8007.ATMOS_VARIABILITY
Solar modulation of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2008JD009789
Eleven-year solar cycle signal in the NAO and Atlantic/European blocking
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2782
Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere
https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1282
Role of ozone in the solar cycle modulation of the North Atlantic Oscillation
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2007JD009336
Changing response of the North Atlantic/European winter climate to the 11 year solar cycle
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9e94/pdf
Periodic analysis of solar activity and its link with the Arctic oscillation phenomenon
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-6256/148/6/128/pdf
Comparing the influence of sunspot activity and geomagnetic activity on winter surface climate
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Kalevi_Mursula/publication/301761068_Comparing_the_influence_of_sunspot_activity_and_geomagnetic_activity_on_winter_surface_climate/links/5d9ad60b299bf1c363fd0483/Comparing-the-influence-of-sunspot-activity-and-geomagnetic-activity-on-winter-surface-climate.pdf

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Hi KieleMoani,

Have a look at cloudiness!

In Central Australia the degree of cloud cover very definitely is modified by the position of the moon in its orbit so presumably that is due to some effect on the solar wind. The suggestion would be that the same factors would be affected by variations of the solar wind at its source.

I think that aspect of the subject is still fairly wide open for research projects.

Good luck,

Jim Sinclair.

 

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Purely for entertainment value, the present solar flat-lining allows us to indulge in a little playful – and possibly quite productive – speculation over the next few months.

If we examine the Thermosphere Climate Index chart over the last few years, arising from the quietness of the present solar situation we find that the influence of Russell-Macpherron effect is remarkably clearly displayed in the chart, with dips in winter and summer and peaks in spring and autumn, the latter being especially pronounced.

The relevant chart extract can be viewed here ...

 https://howtheatmosphereworks.wordpress.com/observations-2019/observations-2020/

The question to be asked is - what is likely to happen this autumn ? Continued flat-lining should, theoretically, give us the autumnal peak at around ‘X’ on the chart followed by a “Snowmaggedon” style dip this winter. A significant increase in solar activity could give us a sharply increased autumn peak with the consequent risks of elevated hurricane activity – or not, as the case may be.

At this point it’s a case of ‘Lay the money and roll the dice !’

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