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New research suggests Solar Cycle 25 could be strongest in 50 years

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10 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

I agree completely. Solar activity is neat to observe, but can't be an overarching explanation for something with as many influencing factors as the climate.

Considering that the Sun provides nearly all the energy that powers what we call climate I don't think it is unreasonable to consider the possibility that it might be one of the main factors affecting climate.

The bean counters try to reduce the problem to W/m^2, but complex problems are not amenable to reductionism. Did you know that solar activity affects the speed of rotation of the Earth? Probably not.

Le Mouël et al., 2010 "Solar forcing of the semi‐annual variation of length‐of‐day"

And did you know that changes in the rotation speed of the Earth correlate with changes in climate? Probably not, but it is known since the mid-70s when they thought the climate was cooling.

Lambeck & Cazenave, 1976 "Long Term Variations in the Length of Day and Climatic Change". They say:
"Without a better understanding of the interactions between the two phenomena the use of the LOD observations in predicting climate is of very limited value but if the hypothesis is accepted then the continuing deceleration of m for the last 10 yr suggests that the present period of decreasing average global temperature will continue for at least another 5-10 yr. Perhaps a slight comfort in this gloomy trend is that in 1972 the LOD showed a sharp positive acceleration that has persisted until the present, although it is impossible to say if this trend will continue as it did at the turn of the century or whether it is only a small perturbation in the more general decelerating trend."
5 years after the sharp positive acceleration in LOD, the same year the paper was published, 1976, the gloomy cooling trend gave way to a gloomy warming trend. The rotation of the Earth, that responds to solar activity anticipates changes in climate by a few years.

Paleoclimatology has already told us that grand solar minima, particularly when they cluster, coincide with sustained periods of climate worsening characterized by decrease in temperature is most regions, increase of temperature in some regions, altered atmospheric circulation and altered precipitations patterns, as it was observed during the LIA. The LIA is just the last example. It happened before in 2700 BP, and it presents a repeating pattern in North Atlantic iceberg activity linked to the millennial (Eddy) cycle in solar activity.

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The Little Ice Age was a combination of several factors including ocean cooling, low solar activity and intense volcanic activity.
Most research shows these factors as the main cause.
The majority of people also do not know in the least how the so-called Little "Ice" Age behaved, despite the silly name that this era has.
However I don't see how this topic centers with this thread, at best we can open another one on the topic.
Here we talk about solar cycles.
It's nice to see that there is as much interest in the prediction of the next solar cycle 25 as there is between two football teams, unfortunately none of us have the skills to determine if Svaalgard, Kitiashvili, Zharkova etc. are right.
Our statements and opinions make all of us freshmen with respect to the skills of these scientists.
It would be of common interest to invite these scientists to debate with each other in this excellent serious forum.
In the meantime, to stay on topic, what are your (personal) predictions about solar cycle 25?

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The only prediction I can make about cycle 25 is that it will wax and wane, and 11 years from now the same people will be predicting an "imminent little ice age" despite global temperatures having risen again over the previous decade (barring another Tambora).

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On 7/29/2020 at 5:10 AM, braintic said:

The only prediction I can make about cycle 25 is that it will wax and wane, and 11 years from now the same people will be predicting an "imminent little ice age" despite global temperatures having risen again over the previous decade (barring another Tambora).

Imo, we will see a global drop in temps for the next 16 years at least. I do not expect a new LIA as the planet is still in a longer term natural warm period. That warm period will likely continue for another several centuries. This current warm spike in the record will likely eventually become the peak of the Modern Warm Period.  It will obviously take the passage of over a century before that can be seen in the data though.

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46 minutes ago, goldminor said:

Imo, we will see a global drop in temps for the next 16 years at least. I do not expect a new LIA as the planet is still in a longer term natural warm period. That warm period will likely continue for another several centuries. This current warm spike in the record will likely eventually become the peak of the Modern Warm Period.  It will obviously take the passage of over a century before that can be seen in the data though.

So, what will break the current streak of 426 consecutive months of globally increasing temperatures, in your opinion? See this article for citation(add 6 months from authoring date): https://mashable.com/article/420-months-above-average-temperatures-climate-change/#:~:text=It's%20now%20been%20420%20consecutive,and%20Atmospheric%20Administration%20(NOAA).

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What sadness. We are stubbornly going off topic.
Are we talking about solar cycles and not global temperatures?
If I write it in Japanese maybe we understand it better?

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31 minutes ago, Aeon said:

What sadness. We are stubbornly going off topic.
Are we talking about solar cycles and not global temperatures?
If I write it in Japanese maybe we understand it better?

While I agree we've veered off from the original discussion, I've left the door open to an explanation from goldminor as to how it is related to the original topic, so I find it premature to pass judgment and declare this discussion over. How do you know if his answer will be unrelated to a strong SC25?

For the sake of policing ourselves and staying true to discussion threads, perhaps we should move our discourse to this thread: 

 

Relax. Grab some tea.

Edited by Christopher S.
Acquiesced, provided alternative thread for current track of discussion
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On 8/2/2020 at 12:45 PM, Christopher S. said:

So, what will break the current streak of 426 consecutive months of globally increasing temperatures, in your opinion? See this article for citation(add 6 months from authoring date): https://mashable.com/article/420-months-above-average-temperatures-climate-change/#:~:text=It's%20now%20been%20420%20consecutive,and%20Atmospheric%20Administration%20(NOAA).

Here is the cyclic pattern which I think drives the 60+ year warm/cool trends. My concept is that the global warming is driven by the southern hemisphere of the sun holding the excess ssn count. Global warming started in the late 1970s. The warming really takes off in the early 1980s as southern sunspots firnly assert their control. You can see at a glance that the south then remains dominant through to around 2008. That is what drove the global warming and caused the ocean to heat up. Note that prior to the mid 1970s that the north was dominant all the way back to at least 1950. That was the last 30+ year cooling trend where the 1950s/60s were certainly cooler as were the surface temps of the oceans all through those decades. The trend has now once again shifted back to a cooling trend with the north regaining dominance. This is not an immediate effect because of the amount of extra energy which the oceans have taken in during the 30+ year warming trend. It takes time for that excess to bleed off out of the oceans. .... wnosuf.png

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On 7/11/2020 at 4:32 AM, Marcel de Bont said:

I do not know to be honest but did some Googling and this is the earliest prediction (from 2005) which I could find that comes relatively close to the how SC24 panned out. It isn't perfect but considering this paper is from 2005 it deserves a mention; https://web.archive.org/web/20160121131245/http://192.211.16.13/z/zita/research/07dynamo/articles/Schatten2005GRL.pdf

Welcome by the way!

This further supports the polar field method when predicting solar cycles.

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A solar cycle lasts about 11 years. At the end of a solar cycle, the north and south poles change places. During a cycle, the same fluctuation of solar radiation, solar flares and sunspots always takes place. Until about the middle of the solar cycle the activity of the Sun increases, the number of sunspots increases, the eruptions of the Sun are intense and frequent, then everything becomes quieter again, the transition from one solar cycle to the next is a phase of low solar activity, characterized by the (extensive) absence of sunspots. 

The year 2019 has gone down in the history of sunspot counting as one of the years that had the longest phase of consecutive days when NO sunspot was seen. For 281 days in a row (77% of the days) the Sun remained without spots. Since the counting of sunspots, only the year 1913 has seen more days without sunspots. 

The transition from solar cycle 24 to the new solar cycle 25 is special in that it is associated with an extremely long period of calm Sun. 

Scientists agree that solar cycle 25 will be weaker than solar cycle 24, i.e. fewer sunspots, fewer solar storms, a weaker magnetic field of the Sun, etc. How much weaker it will be is debatable. However, the long continuous phase without sunspots gives rise to fears.

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18 hours ago, JoeLudwig said:

Scientists agree that solar cycle 25 will be weaker than solar cycle 24, i.e. fewer sunspots, fewer solar storms, a weaker magnetic field of the Sun, etc.

Scientists don't agree on such a prediction. In fact an international panel of experts coordinated by the NOAA and NASA, to which the WDC-SILSO contributed, released a preliminary forecast for Solar Cycle 25 on April 5, 2019. Based on a compilation of more than 60 forecasts published by various teams using a wide range of methods, the panel reached a consensus indicating that cycle 25 will most likely peak between 2023 and 2026 at a maximum sunspot number between 95 and 130. Therefore, solar cycle 25 will be similar to cycle 24, which peaked at 116 in April 2014.

http://www.sidc.be/silso/node/152

That's the official prediction. Whether it will be right or wrong it's a different matter.

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