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Current Solar Minimum- Remarkable?

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How remarkable is the current solar minimum historically? I recall looking at this last year and was expecting a pick-up in solar activity around the end of last year/or beginning of this.

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I think this solar minimum is quite average or normal if you prefer to say it that way. Solar activity has been picking up slowly with numerous SC25 regions popping up the past few months, it all seems very normal to me. Solar minimum likely occurred late 2019 which means Solar Cycle 24 lasted spot on 11 years.

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As a length, cycle 24 surely exceeded cycle 21 and cycle 22.
However, it seems to me a contradiction to say that the weaker cycles last longer: being weaker than cycle 23, should this cycle not be slightly longer?
Is there currently an active region in the west, does it belong to cycle 24?

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There is no direct correlation between the length of a solar cycle and its strength.

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As a length, cycle 24 surely exceeded cycle 21 and cycle 22.

That is correct.

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Is there currently an active region in the west, does it belong to cycle 24?

There are currently no numbered active regions on the earth-facing side of the Sun. I assume you mean the east side. East is on the left as seen from Earth's/SDO's point of view. There is an area of magnetic enhancement I assume you talk about that but no sunspots. That is indeed a SC25 area. Positive polarity is leading in the northern hemisphere which means it belongs to SC25.

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I am wondering what this longish cycle will mean for my solar/West Coast flood concept? The last 3 flood winters struck in 2016/17, 2006/07, and 1996/97. Note the correlation with solar minima. So the Big Question "Will the next flood winter be 2026/27? If so then that means that spotless trends will show up in late 2026, similar to 2016/17. The 3.4 ENSO region will move into negative numbers, or deeper if already negative. That would point to a shorter then average cycle for SC25. I am uncertain though on what happens next in that in the past these well above average rain systems have occurred at a 9 year interval within the range of being at or close to the actual minimum. I also see examples where the flood cycle lengthens to 11+ years. It makes sense in a way as otherwise the flood cycle would move out of phase with the solar minimum. That does not happen, and whatever length the cycle sets at there will then be multiple iterations of the cycle for 9/10/11+  years, similar to 1964/65, 1955/56, while 1946/47 was a weak flood winter a year after the minimum, but during a sudden drop in sunspots after an early high spike in the count.

 

 

 

 

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I know solar activity is very hard to predict, but when do you think we will see a significant increase in solar activity from now?

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That is very hard to say but I wouldn't expect too much until at least 1 year after solar minimum. It all depends on how SC25 develops but perhaps early 2021 we should start to see significant more activity.

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52 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said:

That is very hard to say but I wouldn't expect too much until at least 1 year after solar minimum. It all depends on how SC25 develops but perhaps early 2021 we should start to see significant more activity.

I wasn't monitoring the sun around the SC23-SC24 minimum so I wouldn't know this, but how is SC24-25 minimum compared to the SC24-SC25 minimum, and if everything lines up between the months, which month would be the nadir and which future month would be in place where January 2010 is? Assuming nadirs are December 2019 and August 2008 respectively. Do you think that this current minimum is going to end quicker than the previous.

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12 hours ago, dynastyll said:

I wasn't monitoring the sun around the SC23-SC24 minimum so I wouldn't know this, but how is SC24-25 minimum compared to the SC24-SC25 minimum, and if everything lines up between the months, which month would be the nadir and which future month would be in place where January 2010 is? Assuming nadirs are December 2019 and August 2008 respectively. Do you think that this current minimum is going to end quicker than the previous.

This would require a bit of "crystal ball forecasting" as there isn't any good way to predict the exact point in which the next solar cycle is going to rapidly develop.

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It would seem that solar minimums are gauged, in large part, by the presence of days without Sunspots.  In comparing minimums over the last century tallying the total number of 'Spotless Days' per each cycle. 

Cycle #14-15 had approximately 1,015 spotless days.  Cycle #15-16 = 535.  Cycle #16-17 = 580.  Cycle #17-18 = 290.  Cycle #18-19 = 460.  Cycle #19-20 = 215.  Cycle #20-21 = 285.  Cycle #21-22 = 285.  Cycle #22-23 = 315.  Cycle #23-24 = 804.  Cycle #24-25 = 785 (to this point).

If, as Marcel estimated, this minimum lasts till early 2021... It would only require an additional 200 + spotless days to bring the total to approximately 1,000 spotless days.  Graphing these points out reveals the gulf of spotless days throughout the 20th century.  

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6 uren geleden, The Novitiate zei:

If, as Marcel estimated, this minimum lasts till early 2021... It would only require an additional 200 + spotless days to bring the total to approximately 1,000 spotless days.  Graphing these points out reveals the gulf of spotless days throughout the 20th century.  

You misunderstood me. I expect that we have passed solar minimum. Solar minimum is a specific month, not a period of time and I expect that solar minimum was somewhere late 2019. December 2019 seems the most likely candidate right now going by the SSN. However, just because we have passed solar minimum doesn't mean solar activity will sky rocket. 2021 should give us a much clearer picture in that regard.

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In this cycle now that we have had A burst of activity there is the temptation to say that we have Now past the Minimum. So concievably, without going into the deeper science, the return of the Maximum could be a logarithm or perhaps may even be a "slow" return? The Oscillations of the Baseline measurements by Ms Zharkova in Russia 6/2019 have now been discounted. Could it be a slight possibility that if her predictions were correct..or even partially...? we may climb out of the last minimum at a "slow" pace? Or theoretically, if the Sun "spluttered" recently we could still be up for 5-10 years of "Cold Ones"? Interested in your thoughts....Or Possibilities..?

 

 

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16 hours ago, Marcel de Bont said:

You misunderstood me. I expect that we have passed solar minimum. Solar minimum is a specific month,

I apologize.  My understanding had been that the transition from One Cycle to the next Cycle occurred during a specific month... but that a solar minimum occurred from the onset of significant spotless days and continued until significant eruptions resumed... that certain minimums were deeper and/or longer than others. I'd assumed one method of approximating the relative depth of a particular minimum was to compare the number of spotless days that occurred in the interlude between maximal SSN

Perhaps. it might be of some interest in comparing  the value of the 460 & 215 spotless days in the nadirs bracketing Solar Maximum #19... to the the 800 and potential 1,000+ spotless days bracketing Maximum #24. 

The Smoothed Monthly maximum for Cycle #19 was  285 on 03/1958 and individual maximum was 359 on 10/1957.  Meanwhile, the Smoothed Monthly maximum for Cycle #24 was 116.4 on 04/2014 and individual monthly maximum was 146.1 in 02/2014.  I was uncertain whether this was a statistical anomaly. or had some potential correlative relationship?

 

Edited by The Novitiate
clarity

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Well it is a common misconception for people to refer to solar minimum as the period with low solar activity between two Solar Cycle peaks (a period which could span months or years depending on what you consider low solar activity) but it technically is not correct to call this period a solar minimum. Solar minimum is actually the month with the lowest record SSN between the peaks of two Solar Cycles. Which month Solar Minimum took place isn't something we can pinpoint until a good while after it took place but December 2019 is a likely candidate right now. It is easy to get confused as to what Solar Minimum really means but if you want to be precise this is the true definition of solar minimum. 

But it is true that in general speech people often refer to solar minimum as a specific period with low solar activity and that is alright as well as long as people understand what you mean by it.

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11 hours ago, Marcel de Bont said:

Well it is a common misconception for people to refer to solar minimum as the period with low solar activity between two Solar Cycle peaks (a period which could span months or years depending on what you consider low solar activity) but it technically is not correct to call this period a solar minimum. Solar minimum is actually the month with the lowest record SSN between the peaks of two Solar Cycles. Which month Solar Minimum took place isn't something we can pinpoint until a good while after it took place but December 2019 is a likely candidate right now.

Such as summarized in STAR’s Monthly solar cycle data.

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Thanks for clarification on terminology. What is the best term for the nadir of solar activity to compare deeper/longer periods of low activity from cycle to cycle?

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15 uren geleden, Kaimbridge zei:

Such as summarized in STAR’s Monthly solar cycle data.

STAR is indeed a great resource for in dept solar information. Thanks Kaimbridge.

13 uren geleden, JB1 zei:

Thanks for clarification on terminology. What is the best term for the nadir of solar activity to compare deeper/longer periods of low activity from cycle to cycle?

Well guess I am going to contradict myself here but I cant think of a better term than solar minimum. When most people talk about solar minimum, they mean the longer periods with low solar activity between two SC peaks but I cant think of any other term at the moment. But if I'd be really nitpicking, solar minimum is the month with the lowest SSN.

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