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Have there been changes in the climate produced by the solar minimum?

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Have there been changes in the climate produced by the solar minimum?

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There is an interesting discussion on this subject here :

https://howtheatmosphereworks.wordpress.com/about/solar-activity-and-surface-climate/

It is, basically, an investigation into whether climate activity can be related to the ‘Ap’ index rather than TSI or sunspot activity. Have a looksee, maybe you can tear some of it apart !

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I have to agree with NASA's take on this question. Space Weather is dynamically shifting in the sense of day-to-day influence on celestial bodies. Earth's own climate is also dynamically shifting, and the most critical factors of Earth's weather involve seasons, polar air masses, upper-level disturbances, and even dust blown off of Northern Africa into the North Atlantic basin. There are so many factors at play that discerning a direct impact to climate in the long term due to Space Weather is not possible with current technology and understandings of Earth's climate over the course of its history as a stable, life-bearing body. We may be able to attribute some aspects of our weather to Space Weather, but those would not be accountable for what ultimately transpires at or near the surface of the planet, in terms of the atmosphere.

I will however be looking into the Northern Pacific basin for deviations from average, in terms of the hurricanes it produces, for the next few years or so. This particular subject may become more interesting depending on whether hurricane production is more substantial during solar minimum or not, and also depending on how said production changes as Solar Cycle 25 ramps up. The same factors that contribute to the development of hurricanes are very similar to those that cause hot, moist air to push northward into the cooler, drier air in high latitudes. Since hurricanes are, in a sense, self-contained disturbances in the atmosphere, these provide more obvious and significant data points to refer to along with non-meteorological studies.

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Thank you for what is, self evidently, a deeply considered reply.

It is important to mention at this point that the data under discussion are ‘Observation and  Discussion’ rather than ‘ Conclusion’ at the moment.

The key concept under consideration is based on the expansion of the upper atmospheric structure under the influence of solar impacts. This is well documented and recorded within satellite drag observations; what is less well understood is the influence that this has at lower levels, down as far as the ‘Steering Level’ where the jet stream path and intensity are seemingly affected.

Under quiet periods, such as we have at present, the steering level structure withdraws back towards the equator (for any given season/time of year) and the ‘Sea/Land Differential’ becomes the dominant factor. This is a far more stable structure, the result of which is that weather patterns tend to become more fixed – so the weather you have is what you keep, be it drought or flood.

Of further interest is the rather surprising effect that solar impacts seem to have on surface storm behaviour. This is discussed here :

https://howtheatmosphereworks.wordpress.com/about/solar-activity-and-surface-climate/storm-analysis/

If you wish to carry out your own assessment on this, you can plot the daily wind strength of any major storm and cross reference it to the ‘Ap’ impact charts, data at - http://eng.sepc.ac.cn/ApIndex.php   gives the ability to select any given period for direct assessment.

Obviously, a great deal more research and analysis is needed but it is increasingly clear that the recipe for the climatic ‘Minestrone Soup’ is a lot more complex than is generally accepted.

We are now entering what should be the 'Spörer’s Law' years. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next few winters, and what impact will be seen in relation to the current solar 'flatlining' we see.

 

Edited by The Atmosphere Guy
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Negative ENSO conditions have rapidly bloomed since the end of April. I forecast this to happen on Feb 1st with a simple forecast that ENSO 3.4 will reach zero, or move into negative numbers by April/May. The WMO and NOAA at the same time forecast a 60% chance of ENSO neutral through the end of the summer, a 30% of El Nino later in the year, and a 10% chance for a La Nina later in the year. Which forecast was most accurate?

 

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Just now, goldminor said:

Negative ENSO....

That forecast of mine is based on the connection which I see between placement of excess sunspots favoring one hemisphere over the other. Imo, sunspots will increase in the second half of this year as I also stated back in December. As the new sunspot  count rises it will cause temps in the ENSO region to plummet even further. This will go hand in hand with the sunspots sitting mainly in the northern hemisphere. The upcoming La Nina should last for a minimum of 2 years. It will be long and deep, and it will cause global temps as seen in the satellite graphs, RSS and UAH, to drop into negative numbers by the end of the year for the first time since 2010/11. There goes NOAA's forecast for 2020 to be another high temp year.

13 hours ago, The Atmosphere Guy said:

The key concept under consideration is based on the expansion of the upper atmospheric structure under the influence of solar impacts. This is well documented and recorded within satellite drag observations; what is less well understood is the influence that this has at lower levels, down as far as the ‘Steering Level’ where the jet stream path and intensity are seemingly affected.

 

 

 

The current deflation of the upper atmosphere can be observed in current temps across the Himalaya Mt range, imo. Those temps have currently been lower than on average for this time of year as compared to at least the last several years for which I have saved daily pics of. This is the current look. The region just started warming up bout 4 days ago. I would estimate that the delay in warming is around 3 to 4 weeks compared to previous years. Also of interest is the atmospheric and temp changes from 500 hPa and higher. I read the changes as signs of steady cooling. ... https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=92.84,40.07,672/loc=94.312,32.534

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