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Did the historic solar minimum cause the pandemic?

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Posted (edited)
On 3/21/2020 at 10:19 PM, Ron NL said:

Question: ... where to find the UV-C curve for this (11 yr) cycle ... or even better for this current year ?

Hi Ron NL,

please view the post linked below then scroll down to find my comment for this answer.


the short answer is that the data you are looking for doesn’t exist right now.  The most recent satellite to measure this was the source sim project - however that was recently decommissioned due to multiple failures over the years. Accurately measuring all wavelengths of solar irradiance from outside our atmosphere  holds the key to so many answers but as of now and to my knowledge it does not exist.....

 

the last known data we had for solar irradiance came from:

http://lasp.colorado.edu/home/sorce/2019/07/15/sorce-operations-extended-to-january-2020/
 

but that has since been discontinued- with the last couple years of data corrupted as it fell further into the atmosphere.   

 

Edited by cosnow

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Posted (edited)

 @cosnow   ... yes not enough data available ...and to much attention to solar-maximal only.

In science you can also do things the other way around ...for example if 4 out of 5 facts point to a certain theory

then you could ASSUME  it is correct and go from there ... anything better then doing nothing.

 

But that is not neccesary ... just google for "Solar-activity vs Virus-Outbreak" and you find enough serious results

that point in the direction that i am pointing to ...after that show it to the media and decision-makers and let them use

that info ..its all we have. .. i suggest we should do following:

 

1) Establish the wavelength covid19 is most sensitive to (max 1 week of work in a lab)

2) Set up a EARTH-BASED network to measure levels of above found wavelength. 

3) You could also measure more wavelengths (spectrum)  ...so you would have that data also.

 

and voila you will have a plot ...that might tell it all !  

 

How difficult is it to do that ... NOT !... it can be done fairly lowcost

but it should start a.s.a.p. ..NOW ! ... so we have data from now ..if this takes to long to set up

we will not have enough data from current minimum ...and next chance will be only 11 yrs from know. 

but maybe we can already see at least the short term (1yr seasonal) correlation.

 

We will at least soon be able to see if virus-activity follows solar-activity levels.  

 

What is wrong with above ?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Ron NL

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On 3/16/2020 at 10:09 PM, Sparkatronn said:

Sunspots are enourmous producers of ultraviolet light, uv light is a great sanitizer, less sunspots equals less uv light therefore less sanitation and more germs and viruses. Less sunpots occour during a period of a weakened solar magnetic field and also reduced solar wind which is what pushes cosmic radiation away from earth, therefore during solar minimum more cosmic radiation. Cosmic radiation has a large influence on cloud formation , it creates free radicals that act as condensation nuclie, therefore more clouds during solar minimum, therefore less ultraviolet radiation penetrating to the surface of the earth. I would say that our current grand solar minimum is having an effect on disease here on earth.

 

UV-C is a great Germicide but it's never been demonstrated to reach the ground.

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Posted (edited)

Thanks Sun Burn & Sparkatronn

Quote

never been demonstrated to reach the ground

could that be because simply no-one ever tried it ? 

or maybe because at that time they didnt see a use for it ?

or maybe they did not have sensitive enough equipment ?  

 

From what i read about it it seems to me that viruses are very sensitive to it

(even more if you hit it with most effective wavelength ...instead of the generally used 254nm)

Also its about the DOSE ... a dose is Level X Time  ... meaning even a very low radiation-level would have effect 

if you do it long enough ...and we are talking many months here. (same goes for absence of radiation) 

 

In addition... i find it a to big coincidence that this occurs right now at a 100 yr low record.

In more addition it was already shown that flu/virus outbreaks are related to solar-activity

mostly they talk about maximal ...which might be a different effect ... but it shurely has to do with it.

It could be also one of the other wavelengths or type of radiation that is either max or very low right now. 

 

Even if you cant pinpoint which part of the spectrum is responsable for this ...you still could conclude

that it is be related to the current very long low-activity.  that would be enough to improve strategies 

based on when outbreak reaches maxima or minima ...that would be helpfull knowledge.

... I'm not convinced yet 😉 

 

.

Edited by Ron NL

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EXACTLY what I have been thinking and searching for.  Thank you all for your inputs.  I feel sure the Sun is stabilizing the Earth's microbiology to a greater or lesser level dependent on it's position in it's 11 year cycle. Am I right in thinking it is presently on it's way back and will have max effect in 7 years?

 

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Posted (edited)

I think the lynchpin of the theory of increased pandemics with a solar minimum is very plausible.  As many of you mentioned, the UV rays are decreased during a solar minimum.  UV rays aid in killing viruses.  I would think that virus mutation happens all the time.  That spread happens all the time.  However, I think spread is increased during time of lesser UV rays.  https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00571.1

  Consider the human body -- it tends to cancer with oncogenes often throughout life.  However, not all of those oncogenes spread and become a cancer problem due the ability for the body to use autophagy and apoptosis (the cells are restructured or the bad cells die). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3970201/

Earth, has a similar ability for viruses and bacteria to evolve.  Many of these are kept in check by the nature https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1280232/  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3231322/

Edited by LMcMe
word correction
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Posted (edited)

While I am not disputing the effect on Earth from the solar minimum, which is clearly defined in a recent article about Sao Paulo located on S 24 latitude and 800 elevation,   I am still very suspicious about the miraculous recovery of China which is now in full recovery, industries going at full speed producing corona-virus rescue equipment for the World.  Strange?

According to the latest TV reports from China, it seems more and more that it was all well-planned to destroy the US economy and make China the largest world economy, which they were well on their way to before the corona-virus outbreak.

Notice how well-prepared China looked to be with state-of-the-art equipment in the streets, suits and 2000 bed hospital built in four days. The government itself claims that the numbers perished  are 2000 while the real figure is estimated at 40,000.

A book was written in China in 1986 by a high-ranking military and a politician who stated that they were aware that China would not be able to challenge the United States militarily, but that it would be possible to create a viral pandemic that would ruining their finances.

China has recovered incredibly quickly and their industry is now in full swing, while the United States is on the decline until they manage to control the outbreaks.

During World War II, China was subjected to violent attacks from Japan that had highly developed war virus laboratories being tested in China. During the war, all prisoners of war in Japan were subjected to the most gruesome experiments in which the laboratories acquired a great deal of knowledge in developing harmful viruses.

After the war, China vowed that they would never again be in the same situation and fully concentrated on virus experiments that have today made China highly developed.in viral technology.

Therefore, it is very likely that Covid-19 was developed in Chinese laboratories and spread around the world, mainly in the United States.

 

Sao Paulo readings :

Coronavirus genetically engineered?

Microorganisms and climate change: 

 

Looking forward to further developments here.  Thanks for having me.  :)

Edited by Tore Christiansen

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Question for the forum.

Has anyone plotted the arrival and dispersal of other pandemic against solar activity. Like the plague, Influenza, H1N1 to see if there is a correlation? Sorry if I haven'ed worded this correctly. i'm a BSEE not a scientist. 

 

Thank you..

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@David M Meaney 

 

Comon David !   ... yes hundreds of scientific papers have exactly done that 

just Google for Solar-Activty vs Virus-Outbreaks ...or... Solar-Activity vs Flu 

Allthough most plot them vs Maximal-Activity cause that drew the most attention over the last decades. 

 

 

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6 hours ago, Tore Christiansen said:

Anche se non sto contestando l'effetto sulla Terra dal minimo solare, che è chiaramente definito in un recente articolo su San Paolo situato sulla latitudine S 24 e sull'elevazione 800, sono ancora molto sospettoso riguardo al miracoloso recupero della Cina che è ora in pieno recupero, industrie che vanno a tutta velocità producendo apparecchiature di salvataggio del virus corona per il mondo. Strano?

Secondo gli ultimi rapporti televisivi dalla Cina, sembra sempre più che sia stato ben pianificato di distruggere l'economia americana e rendere la Cina la più grande economia mondiale, che erano già sulla buona strada prima dello scoppio del virus corona.

Notate quanto la Cina fosse ben preparata con attrezzature all'avanguardia nelle strade, nelle tute e nell'ospedale da 2000 posti letto costruito in quattro giorni. Lo stesso governo afferma che i numeri periti sono 2000 mentre la cifra reale è stimata in 40.000.

Un libro è stato scritto in Cina nel 1986 da un alto livello militare e da un politico che ha affermato di essere consapevole che la Cina non sarebbe stata in grado di sfidare militarmente gli Stati Uniti, ma che sarebbe stato possibile creare una pandemia virale che avrebbe rovinato le loro finanze.

La Cina ha recuperato incredibilmente rapidamente e il suo settore è ora in pieno svolgimento, mentre gli Stati Uniti sono in declino fino a quando non riescono a controllare gli scoppi.

Durante la seconda guerra mondiale, la Cina fu sottoposta a violenti attacchi dal Giappone che avevano testato in Cina laboratori altamente sviluppati di virus di guerra. Durante la guerra, tutti i prigionieri di guerra in Giappone furono sottoposti agli esperimenti più raccapriccianti in cui i laboratori acquisirono una grande conoscenza nello sviluppo di virus dannosi.

Dopo la guerra, la Cina ha promesso che non si sarebbero mai più trovati nella stessa situazione e si è concentrata completamente sugli esperimenti sui virus che hanno reso la Cina altamente sviluppata nella tecnologia virale.

Pertanto, è molto probabile che Covid-19 sia stato sviluppato nei laboratori cinesi e diffuso in tutto il mondo, principalmente negli Stati Uniti.

 

Letture di San Paolo:

Coronavirus geneticamente modificato?

Microrganismi e cambiamenti climatici: 

 

In attesa di ulteriori sviluppi qui. Grazie per avermi.  :)

There are data showing that a strange pneumonia similar to that of Covid19 had been going on in Italy since January.
Some even go so far as to say that he was born in Italy.
So far many studies have denied the laboratory virus theory, in which case the Chinese have miserably failed its real effectiveness, but it is not an artificial virus.
As for the economic strategy thesis, what is certain is that to recover the world economy it will have to change and impose tariffs on goods.
All this will only go to the detriment of China.

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Posted (edited)

When will the Solar-Activity curve on spaceweatherlive.com be updated ?

its old and months behind ...Hello speaceweather-staff if for once in your life you can make yourself

usefull ...then that is now ... dont get it why you didnt do that already ...we are waiting to see which of the

2 prediction-methodes follows the actual curve ... while your'e at it make one that only shows the current year

but then in as much as possible details ..use all the data you have ... if you dont do that then what is the use of 

making all these curves if they are good for nothing and cant be used when you need them.

Edited by Ron NL

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On 3/22/2020 at 7:59 PM, Ron NL said:

Disapointed ...that no-one replies, after one whole day

I only see "minor flares" ...where are the "big flares" ?

Not even a moderator who could keep the discussion alive ?

i dont find any other place to discuss this ...can anyone refer me to a better forum ? 

 

Big flares are vary wary of such threads, and although they normally don't tackle or outright ban them, they do not share this kind of interest.

 

Trust me. I've been here for a while. We've seen so many. Enjoy the discussion.

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Hi all, my understanding of biology and and microbiology, cosmic rays high energy (gamma)particles change DNA over time. This is something that should be more studied. Science has known that gamma radiation affects asternots, pilots. With gamma radiation(call it what it is) at it's an all-time high. We have to look at this with reason logic and what science has already proven with the effects of gamma radiation. I do believe it requires more deep exploration study and research. With a weekend magnetosphere, all things are screaming at me that we are at the beginning stages of effects. About the virus REMEMBER CGI computer-generated Imaging is pretty dang good. Understand we can be tricked easy if not paying attention. 

Thank you Rob

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Hello!

Last night Sun restored a minimum of activity with a C-flare...let's wait and hope. Viruses in the air maybe are frigthtened by flares!

Nice discussion here, really interesting

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On 3/9/2020 at 7:08 AM, Christopher S. said:

Please refrain from strawmanning my comments, Jenn. As I said, the failure to contain a virus outbreak, AKA a pandemic, is not influenced by cosmic rays. The virus manifesting itself is a completely separate point which I have not spoken to. Whether or not someone washes their hands or covers their mouth when they cough isn't something we can blame on radiation. 

Im sorry dissagree. It's long known that cosmic radiation has an effect on pilots and astronauts. And what the magnetic field and the solar minimum with the magnetic field the Magneto sphere being in a weakened state. The solar wind being at low density and speeds. The solar wind and the sun's magnetic field deflect Cosmic radiation. But when the solar wind is in a low solar wind because of solar minimum them cosmic rays were not getting deflected. So cosmic rays enter our solar system and into our planet ionizing are upper atmosphere called the ionosphere. Mixing with hydrogen oxygen helium and I believe nitrogen giving the ionosphere an extra dose of ionization. Nucleation of clouds. The studies have been well-known since the 90s. And cosmic rays is at an all-time high at 18%

On 3/9/2020 at 7:08 AM, Christopher S. said:

Please refrain from strawmanning my comments, Jenn. As I said, the failure to contain a virus outbreak, AKA a pandemic, is not influenced by cosmic rays. The virus manifesting itself is a completely separate point which I have not spoken to. Whether or not someone washes their hands or covers their mouth when they cough isn't something we can blame on radiation. 

Biological Sciences. Cells DNA COSMIC RAYS EFFECT 

E-Rad

On 3/8/2020 at 8:05 AM, Jenn said:

Hi again Christopher. Can you please show links from credible sites that cosmic rays or secondary cosmic rays do NOT play any role or trigger a deactivation for dormant viruses? I think it will help or at least point to the site where you get your updated information as science is always learning and changing. From what I have researched  it’s well known that radiation can and does induce mutations. 
 
Doing a quick google search I notice many agreeing with the OP. 
The Journal of Climatology & Weather Forecasting states climate change manifestations do present itself in many ways and disease outbreak is one of them.  “Once the cosmic ray intensity increases locally it has the potential to mutate the skin cells of the human being to make it vulnerable for the H1N1 viral infection”. This paper was published in 2014. Physicsworld.com has one from April, 2018 leading header states, “Cosmic Rays linked to increase mortality”. 
From Phys.org in March of 2019 the leading header states “Dormant viruses activate during spaceflight”. 
A paper published in 2011 from the US National Library of Medicine National Institutes of Health leads with “Effect of Solar Particle Event Radiation on Gastrointestinal Tract Bacterial Translocation and Immune Activation”.  
Google Scholar has papers on this subject as well. One is from Flu.org. “Searching of Main Cause Leading to Severe Influenza A Virus, Mutations and Consequently to Influenza Pandemics/Epidemics.”

 

Spaceweather.com e-rad 

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Just compare the dates. 

The sun was spotless from Nov. 14 until Dec. 23

 

And here an excerpt of the Wikipedia article below

one unconfirmed report suggests the earliest case was on 17 November.[318] Doctor Zhang Jixian observed a pneumonia-cluster of unknown cause on 26 December, upon which her hospital informed Wuhan Jianghan CDC on 27 December.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic

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Op 2/4/2020 om 01:40, Ron NL zei:

When will the Solar-Activity curve on spaceweatherlive.com be updated ?

its old and months behind ...Hello speaceweather-staff if for once in your life you can make yourself

usefull ...then that is now ... dont get it why you didnt do that already ...we are waiting to see which of the

2 prediction-methodes follows the actual curve ... while your'e at it make one that only shows the current year

but then in as much as possible details ..use all the data you have ... if you dont do that then what is the use of 

making all these curves if they are good for nothing and cant be used when you need them.

The solar cycle page has been up-to-date all the time... if the last month isn't visible yet then there is no finalized data yet. Latest datapoint of the averaged smooth sunspot numbere is of march that's very recent 😉 

In other solar minima there where no pandemic... 
It is true that cosmic rays tend to be stronger in solar minimum as Rob pointed out, solar wind speed is low and in these minimum conditions only coronal holes causes a rise in solar wind 

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5 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

In other solar minima there where no pandemic... 

The other solar lows belonged to stronger cycles, but decreasing.
Cosmic ray levels were low compared to the latter two solar minima.spacer.png

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Okay, I’ll take my words back ;) 

 I’ll post a link to keep you guys busy, it’s related to the maunder and dalton minimum which is an interesting read:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317577487_Sunspot_Cycle_Minima_and_Pandemics_A_case_for_vigilance_at_the_present_time

and this interesting read:

https://www.longdom.org/open-access/sunspot-cycle-minima-and-pandemics-the-case-for-vigilance-2332-2519-1000159.pdf

  • Thanks 1

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5 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Okay, I’ll take my words back ;) 

 I’ll post a link to keep you guys busy, it’s related to the maunder and dalton minimum which is an interesting read:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317577487_Sunspot_Cycle_Minima_and_Pandemics_A_case_for_vigilance_at_the_present_time

and this interesting read:

https://www.longdom.org/open-access/sunspot-cycle-minima-and-pandemics-the-case-for-vigilance-2332-2519-1000159.pdf

I feel the authors don't establish a clear link between both phenomenons. Do you have any other article regarding the subject?

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Its simple:

 

Lowest Minimal Solar-Activity  >>>  Lowest UVC-radiation >>>  Lowest killing of Virus 

What part do you not understand ?... each part is a fact already known.

 

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6 hours ago, Ron NL said:

Its simple:

 

Lowest Minimal Solar-Activity  >>>  Lowest UVC-radiation >>>  Lowest killing of Virus 

What part do you not understand ?... each part is a fact already known.

 

I am unconvinced.

I understand it may be a possibility, for it is likely that radiation (the increase or decrease thereof) affects microorganisms more than larger living beings, but it seems to me that the article is flawed

- It is cherrypicking pandemics ; to be of any causal value, EVERY pandemic mutation worldwide should be put in comparison to the solar cycle

- The margin of error of +/- 2 years, paired with an 11 years half-cycle makes a margin of about 20%, which indicates possible correlation, but is far from proving causality

- The authors' explanation of microorganisms in the atmosphere only applies to non-viral organisms (bacteria, parasites, fungi, etc.), so every viral or prion-related epidemics should be ruled out from this particular way of observing mutation, for they can only mutate inside of living hosts.

 

So this is why I'm asking for more. I am totally open to this possibility, and it would make very interesting research open to serious scholars if it were more widely studied, but I cannot draw conclusions based on this article only, sorry.

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Viruses and bacteria are mentioned as their behavior, despite the differences between them, in conditions of greater exposure (for example the external space), have shown similar characteristics to become more dangerous.
Experiments are mentioned for bacteria.
For viruses, studies have been reported that attribute space radiation to the appearance of epidemics such as Zika, H1N1 etc.

I personally believe that UV-C radiation is only partially involved, but its decrease certainly favors the spread of epidemics, but not mutations.


There are also three facts to note:

1) Not all pandemics correspond to a solar minimum, at least in the twentieth century.

2) Not all viruses and bacteria are subject to the same type of mutations which makes them dangerous for humans.
Their aim is to survive and adapt.

3) We have never monitored these situations during a low centenary solar cycle.

The Spanish influence of 1918 corresponded with a weak cycle, but during a Solar Maximum.
Solar activity is also a powerful source of neutrons.
But it is also a powerful source of UV-C.

@ Ron NL

What happens if during a solar maximum, a strong presence of aerosols / SO2 in the atmosphere, due to a series of strong volcanic eruptions, partially shields UV-C radiation, but not neutrons?

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There's a simple answer to this ridiculous question.... NO. Wow this website really has attracted the trolls and morons. Can we get back to real science now?

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