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Stephen Roy

Is the current solar minimum leading to a second Wolf Minimum?

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There is a very interesting chart showing solar activity recorded by Radiocarbon covering the period from 900 to 1900.

[The chart is reproduced here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle#Cycle_history ].

Unfortunately the plot stops at 1900. Does anyone have access to the data post 1900 and the skills to continue the plot? I am keen to know whether it will follow a similar pattern as the one from the Medieval Maximum to the Wolf Minimum (1280 - 1350).

In Europe in 1315, slap bang in the middle of the Wolf minimum,  manorial and monastic records show that a panzootic killed a large number of sheep and cattle. This coincided with heavy precipitation across Europe from 1314-1317 leading to grain shortages and famine.

For the past 5 months in Britain in my locality monthly rainfall has been over 200% of the historical monthly average (Source: weather.com Almanac). February's rainfall so far is almost 500% of the historical monthly average (21/02/20). Interestingly according to the Telegraph Newspaper "Britain is being deluged by “atmospheric rivers” delivered on the jet stream, the Met Office has said.Experts believe the west-east band of high-altitude winds is currently pointed directly at the UK for the first time in years, enabling a “conveyor belt” of non-stop rain. Last night meteorologists warned the UK is likely to face increasingly severe flooding as a result of atmospheric rivers in the future as climate change takes hold...."

 

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16 hours ago, Stephen Roy said:

There is a very interesting chart showing solar activity recorded by Radiocarbon covering the period from 900 to 1900.

 

 

Look in here, ... https://www.google.com/search?channel=tus2&q=aa+solar+graph+historical&tbm=isch&source=univ&client=firefox-b-1-d&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjs7vf7--PnAhUJ7J4KHWFKA3sQsAR6BAgGEAE&biw=1770&bih=979#imgrc=9oVCDhpI3s1xDM

Looks like the ARs will continue to cross the UK and Ireland for a bit longer, ... https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_cloud_water/orthographic=-1.25,53.55,827/loc=-7.796,53.548

There have been well above average rains/snow all around the globe over this winter. That is the sign of a cooling atmosphere, imo into the mid 2030s. In recent years I have come to wonder if a GM is nothing more than a Gleissberg causing/coinciding with a very large eruption. The temp record clearly shows cooling around every 110 years approximately.

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11 hours ago, goldminor said:

Look in here, ... https://www.google.com/search?channel=tus2&q=aa+solar+graph+historical&tbm=isch&source=univ&client=firefox-b-1-d&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjs7vf7--PnAhUJ7J4KHWFKA3sQsAR6BAgGEAE&biw=1770&bih=979#imgrc=9oVCDhpI3s1xDM

Looks like the ARs will continue to cross the UK and Ireland for a bit longer, ... https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_cloud_water/orthographic=-1.25,53.55,827/loc=-7.796,53.548

There have been well above average rains/snow all around the globe over this winter. That is the sign of a cooling atmosphere, imo into the mid 2030s. In recent years I have come to wonder if a GM is nothing more than a Gleissberg causing/coinciding with a very large eruption. The temp record clearly shows cooling around every 110 years approximately.

A few things I must say, owing to my foundation of being a meteorological researcher first, and astrophysics nerd(non-accredited) second:

1. The above average precipitation owes to a warming atmosphere, not a cooling atmosphere. Convection occurs over oceanic temperature anomalies, most energetic at the ITCZ, and seasonally(for the Northern, Western Hemisphere) in the areas around Hadley Cells or in fronts associated with a strong polar vortex. As the temperature of the atmosphere increases, its capacity for carrying moisture also increases. This website uses reliable sources and lays it all out for you: https://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/atmospheric-moisture-increase

2. You are connecting an incorrect observation of the trend in the climate(in that it is cooling, whereas in reality, it is warming) with solar cycles. If you wish to have an accurate interpretation of the relationship between solar cycles and climate on Earth, you must first correct your understanding of the climate as it is today.

3. The amount of light that is absorbed by the planet increases more with deglaciation(thus reduction of albedo, AKA the amount of sunlight that is reflected away from the surfaces) than it does with the fluctuation of solar UV rays during solar cycles. This is due to the simple fact that the more light which is absorbed by the planet results in a more rapid heating of the surface. 

4. The ability for the Gulf Stream(the atmospheric current which is described in the first post above) to reach Western Europe is a direct result of two things: Higher moisture content in the atmosphere(which we should all agree is due to climate change trending towards warming), and a weak polar vortex(the jet stream which revolves around the north pole at varying latitudes.)

5. There has been no observed correlation between the above described weather phenomena, and volcanic eruptions; what you are arbitrarily describing as a "very large eruption" can not be inferred from meteorological data, as these meteorological factors are not uncommon.

6. The topic is about a type of solar minimum, where by definition the Sun's magnetic field undergoes a reversal of the north and south poles, and during this time, few sunspots are observed. If you would like to see the Sun in the spectrum of light where it would be most relevant to the subject matter you are presenting, look at PROBA and perhaps a history of PROBA-2 imagery to interpret the magnitude of UV rays emitted visually: SWAPlatest.png

This looks about the same as it has for several months, and I reckon looking back further than that, you would not see a significant increase in the magnitude of UV rays as seen from this instrument.

In short, a solar "wolf minimum" does not equate to devastation around the globe. If you can find absolute and scientifically sound causality, please share it. I would absolutely like to see it. 

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On 2/22/2020 at 1:32 PM, Christopher S. said:

A few things I must say, owing to my foundation of being a meteorological researcher first, and astrophysics nerd(non-accredited) second:

1. The above average precipitation owes to a warming atmosphere, not a cooling atmosphere. Convection occurs over oceanic temperature anomalies, most energetic at the ITCZ, and seasonally(for the Northern, Western Hemisphere) in the areas around Hadley Cells or in fronts associated with a strong polar vortex. As the temperature of the atmosphere increases, its capacity for carrying moisture also increases. This website uses reliable sources and lays it all out for you: https://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/atmospheric-moisture-increase

Whilst it is true to say that warmer air holds more moisture that does not necessarily mean that more precipitation is due to a warmer atmosphere. Precipitation will always arise when warm moist air is forced to cool. In this instance the U.K. is seeing a higher than average precipitation due to a shift in the jet stream. Warm, moisture laden,  air is being drawn up from near the equator and is coming up against a series of cold fronts. As a result there is high level of precipitation in a narrow band covering the U.K.

In addition NASA indicate that there is some correlation of rainfall in certain areas with the number of sunspots https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/rind_03/

In answer to the original question, I can see no evidence that we are entering a second Wolf Minimum at this time.

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1 hour ago, 3gMike said:

Whilst it is true to say that warmer air holds more moisture that does not necessarily mean that more precipitation is due to a warmer atmosphere. Precipitation will always arise when warm moist air is forced to cool. In this instance the U.K. is seeing a higher than average precipitation due to a shift in the jet stream. Warm, moisture laden,  air is being drawn up from near the equator and is coming up against a series of cold fronts. As a result there is high level of precipitation in a narrow band covering the U.K.

In addition NASA indicate that there is some correlation of rainfall in certain areas with the number of sunspots https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/rind_03/

In answer to the original question, I can see no evidence that we are entering a second Wolf Minimum at this time.

Fundamentally, the draw of moisture into the upper atmosphere occurs more vigorously when both SSTs and the atmosphere itself is warmer than it does when it is cooler. Precipitation itself does occur when the factors of Shear, Lift, Instability, and Moisture(SLIM) come together and while the resultant storms are cool in nature, it is not correct to say that they are caused by a cooler atmosphere. The cooler atmosphere interacts with a warmer atmosphere to give the SLIM factors in greater magnitude depending on how much exchange of cool, dry air from the polar region or extratropics occurs with the warm, moist air of the subtropics.

The article you linked corroborates this in sayings that Total Solar Irradiance increases a very small amount during solar minimum and thus the SSTs are able to increase to higher-than-average levels, lending credence to the idea that a warmer atmosphere is the cause of larger-scale precipitous events. In effect, a warmer atmosphere drives warm, moist air toward the north in greater speed and volume than a cooler atmosphere, as there is a greater difference between the climate zones and thus more instability and shear.

The phenomenon of cooling along the fronts is secondary to the phenomenon of the formation and persistence of the atmospheric rivers which drives them. It is not a mere shift in the jetstream, but instead the function of atmospheric moisture driven by the Coriolis Effect which will bring you subtropical and extratropical jets of moisture, and it can be enhanced by a weak polar vortex(when the jets near the poles relax and the cool, dry air tends to migrate south in fronts.)  

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With water vapor being the largest greenhouse gas (by many many factors of magnitude) and also the largest deflector of irradiance - how does an increase net out?  (For skiers it’s resulting in record conditions across the globe  :) )  could also indicate  an increase in albedo as well.   

 

We also have the following going on right now:

*  Extremely low levels of UV due to an increase in ozone (A good thing for those prone to skin cancer - but very bad for disease and viruses in humans).   Note: I would also include a reduction in UV due to the minimum- but we as humans no longer have a way to accurately measure.  

*  An extremely cold thermosphere - i.e compressed upper atmosphere.

*   Close to record levels of Cosmic rays.   

If I could ever get an accurate weather forecast (ya know sometime before it happens) I’d have less thoughts of some of the above (and other solar phenomena) having unknown and unstudied effects.  
 

So I’d give it a 50/50 we are heading into a wolf minimum. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, cosnow said:

With water vapor being the largest greenhouse gas (by many many factors of magnitude) and also the largest deflector of irradiance - how does an increase net out?  (For skiers it’s resulting in record conditions across the globe  :) )  could also indicate  an increase in albedo as well.   

 

We also have the following going on right now:

*  Extremely low levels of UV due to an increase in ozone (A good thing for those prone to skin cancer - but very bad for disease and viruses in humans).   Note: I would also include a reduction in UV due to the minimum- but we as humans no longer have a way to accurately measure.  

*  An extremely cold thermosphere - i.e compressed upper atmosphere.

*   Close to record levels of Cosmic rays.   

If I could ever get an accurate weather forecast (ya know sometime before it happens) I’d have less thoughts of some of the above (and other solar phenomena) having unknown and unstudied effects.  
 

So I’d give it a 50/50 we are heading into a wolf minimum. 

 

 

Those are some good things to consider. I would like to know where one can find periodic or real-time measurements of the temperatures in the thermosphere, they would be helpful in my own research.

I was also under the impression that a marginal increase in Total Solar Irradiance would mean an increase in UV and EUV light. While the surface will see fewer UV rays due to the reflectivity of cloud tops and total ozone coverage, there are still technically more of them directed at Earth in the absence of sunspots and coronal holes.

The difficulty of accurate weather forecasting varies based on where you live. In locations east of the Mediterranean, for instance, forecasts have historically lacked accuracy outside of a two-day period. For where I live, in the mountainous parts of Northern Arizona, the only accurate weather forecast elements are preceded by obvious and large-scale upper-level storm developments off the Pacific coast; local precipitation and rain-/snow-fall totals vary wildly from the forecast amount. Just a few days ago, a quarter inch of rain was supposed to fall here, and what actually took place was close to 4" of rain over the course of 24 hours and 1" of snow after that. Indeed, computer models need a bit of "help" I guess you could say. In mountainous areas, for instance, the physics of the lower atmosphere and its interaction with the terrain need to be considered, and these physics are not very well understood - at least, the methods to measure the necessary elements are not quite mature enough to lead to consistently accurate forecasts.

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On 2/25/2020 at 5:13 AM, Christopher S. said:

Those are some good things to consider. I would like to know where one can find periodic or real-time measurements of the temperatures in the thermosphere, they would be helpful in my own research.

You can find Here some data https://www.spaceweather.com/

I check every day in both sites, here and there.

In my research I have found that when a big solar wind come here from Sun coronal holes the next days a big wind blow, i have observed this phenomena in Italy 3 times. One time the wind has destroyed an ancient wood with wind from NE at 190Km/h maximum speed. In the day before also the amplificatIon value depending on frequency reached a record and it was altered by Solar Wind from coronal holes wich have a faster speed. It happened on 2 November 2018.

Source: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/it/archivio/2018/11/01/fori-coronali (Big Central coronal Hole)

Other record of wind Speed was maden on 23 February 2019. Two days before solar wind was refistering this data.  https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/it/archivio/2019/02/21/aurora

For sure there has to be a co-interation and it should be interesting to research in this direction.

That Forest was never destroyed by wind in the last century...Stradivari was taking wood for violins from there.  During the event Temperature of Nord Pole was strangly High. 

It is a problem that I cannot put screenshots of my studies. A Public database does not exist for shuman resonance componenti variance. On the 22 february was reached a really High value of AmplificatIon depending on frequency with a peak at 103hz. 

Does Solar wind a "transormation" in Herth wind? Probably yes. Probably weather on Hearth is depending Much more from Sun then How we believe and other big Planets and Cosmic forces has for sure a secondary role.

I Hope that research will go in that direction because I have worked for "green" energy and CO2 compensation and I understood how that business world work. C02 disaster from Human being should be not so evident if we look our Star inside. C02 compensation title is on Wall Street. 5 years ago about was having a value of 70 euro/ton instead now that is 4 times reaching quite 300 euro/ton. Why this is happening if industrialized world is going to green energies? Studying hard and finding a new scientific way we will Save what is possible or we will destroy humanity by hourselfes in the game of corrupted Powers.  I think we have to start to open our eyes.

According to topic I think that a Maunder minimum is going to start but we have to wait to ensure if it will be on SC25 or SC26 maximum. For my personal idea we are going into a minimum now and SC25 will be Very very weak. But I could be in mistake, Sun is Sun I am Just a researcher. 

I am trying tu unclock a 385 years solar cycle. Last big minimum was about 350 years ago so I want to collect more Sun data before to reply with a Thesis. In case of a new Maunder type Minimum Global warming occourred till now will help umanity because a big cold will arrive and it will attuate a mitogation for the firsts cold years. We have to stay tuned and check! 

Have a nice day! 

Edited by Michele
Sources editing
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Hi, I'm new, but I'd like to say my opinion on this topic.

Although it is evident that we are in a Great Solar Recession, this does not mean a Wolf Minimum, a Maunder Minimum etc.
Each of these events is different from the first.
Rather it is clear that the acceleration of the Earth's magnetic pole is connected to the collapse of solar activity, the same can be said of the South Atlantic Anomaly.
Furthermore, a disappearance of the sunspots does not equate to a less active sun, for example it has been discovered that during the solar minimums the gamma rays increase.
In my opinion, when we look at certain solar parameters, probably the disappearance of some types of solar activity leads to an increase in other particular phenomena.

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May I take this opportunity to thank you all for responding to my question. However, it seems that it remains unanswered:

" Chart showing solar activity recorded by Radiocarbon covering the period from 900 to 1900.

[The chart is reproduced here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle#Cycle_history ].

Unfortunately the plot stops at 1900. Does anyone have access to the data post 1900 and the skills to continue the plot? I am keen to know whether it will follow a similar pattern as the one from the Medieval Maximum to the Wolf Minimum (1280 - 1350).

 

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17 hours ago, Aeon said:

Although it is evident that we are in a Great Solar Recession, this does not mean a Wolf Minimum, a Maunder Minimum etc.
Each of these events is different from the first.

Totally agree. We do not know long Solar cicles. Thanks 

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On 2/26/2020 at 4:43 PM, Stephen Roy said:

May I take this opportunity to thank you all for responding to my question. However, it seems that it remains unanswered:

" Chart showing solar activity recorded by Radiocarbon covering the period from 900 to 1900.

[The chart is reproduced here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle#Cycle_history ].

Unfortunately the plot stops at 1900. Does anyone have access to the data post 1900 and the skills to continue the plot? I am keen to know whether it will follow a similar pattern as the one from the Medieval Maximum to the Wolf Minimum (1280 - 1350).

 

I believe that the chart you refer actually covers the period to 1950. There is a problem from 1945 since the radiocarbon was artificially increased by explosion of nuclear bombs, and it is still some 20% higher than it was before that period. https://www.radiocarbon.com/carbon-dating-bomb-carbon.htm

I have found a webpage that gives information for radiocarbon in the period 1962 to 1993. I have not checked the detail but it may offer an opportunity for comparison with solar activity for the same period  https://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/epubs/ndp/ndp057/ndp057.html

Of course it will need correction for the 'bomb effect'.

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@3gMike.

Thank you for your contribution. I was aware of the problem post 1945 with Radiocarbon measurements due to the testing and deployment of nuclear weapons.

However, I don't have a background in physics so would appreciate help from someone who does to add radiocarbon data post 1900 in the plot against solar activity post 1900.

My thanks once again.

Stephen

Edited by Stephen Roy

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On 2/22/2020 at 5:32 AM, Christopher S. said:

A few things I must say, owing to my foundation of being a meteorological researcher first, and astrophysics nerd(non-accredited) second.

 

 

Hello Chris, I got sidetracked by life over the last several months. On top of that it seems the entire world has changed in the last several months. I am going to write a new post which will present my idea of a solar/ENSO primary driver of temperature shifts in the Pacific ocean. That will answer a portion of your questions in so far as explaining how I draw my  conclusions.

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On 2/26/2020 at 8:43 AM, Stephen Roy said:

Unfortunately the plot stops at 1900. Does anyone have access to the data post 1900 and the skills to continue the plot? I am keen to know whether it will follow a similar pattern as the one from the Medieval Maximum to the Wolf Minimum (1280 - 1350).

 

There is one big difference between then and now. The Wolf Minimum occurs shortly after the end of the MWP. This current Modern Warm Period will likely run several more centuries before giving way to the next Cool Period. So I would think that the chances for such a steep drop would be small. Although there is one such example which can be seen around 1130 AD. This graph clearly depicts a steep and rapid temp decline right in the middle of the MWP, which is equivalent to where we are now. ... https://www.uni-mainz.de/eng/bilder_presse/09_geo_tree_ring_northern_europe_climate.jpg

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