Is the current solar minimum leading to a second Wolf Minimum?

[Stephen Roy]

There is a very interesting chart showing solar activity recorded by Radiocarbon covering the period from 900 to 1900.

[The chart is reproduced here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle#Cycle_history ].

Unfortunately the plot stops at 1900. Does anyone have access to the data post 1900 and the skills to continue the plot? I am keen to know whether it will follow a similar pattern as the one from the Medieval Maximum to the Wolf Minimum (1280 - 1350).

In Europe in 1315, slap bang in the middle of the Wolf minimum,  manorial and monastic records show that a panzootic killed a large number of sheep and cattle. This coincided with heavy precipitation across Europe from 1314-1317 leading to grain shortages and famine.

For the past 5 months in Britain in my locality monthly rainfall has been over 200% of the historical monthly average (Source: weather.com Almanac). February's rainfall so far is almost 500% of the historical monthly average (21/02/20). Interestingly according to the Telegraph Newspaper "Britain is being deluged by “atmospheric rivers” delivered on the jet stream, the Met Office has said.Experts believe the west-east band of high-altitude winds is currently pointed directly at the UK for the first time in years, enabling a “conveyor belt” of non-stop rain. Last night meteorologists warned the UK is likely to face increasingly severe flooding as a result of atmospheric rivers in the future as climate change takes hold...."

 

[goldminor]

16 hours ago, Stephen Roy said:

There is a very interesting chart showing solar activity recorded by Radiocarbon covering the period from 900 to 1900.

 

 

Look in here, ... https://www.google.com/search?channel=tus2&q=aa+solar+graph+historical&tbm=isch&source=univ&client=firefox-b-1-d&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjs7vf7--PnAhUJ7J4KHWFKA3sQsAR6BAgGEAE&biw=1770&bih=979#imgrc=9oVCDhpI3s1xDM

Looks like the ARs will continue to cross the UK and Ireland for a bit longer, ... https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_cloud_water/orthographic=-1.25,53.55,827/loc=-7.796,53.548

There have been well above average rains/snow all around the globe over this winter. That is the sign of a cooling atmosphere, imo into the mid 2030s. In recent years I have come to wonder if a GM is nothing more than a Gleissberg causing/coinciding with a very large eruption. The temp record clearly shows cooling around every 110 years approximately.

[Christopher S.]

11 hours ago, goldminor said:

Look in here, ... https://www.google.com/search?channel=tus2&q=aa+solar+graph+historical&tbm=isch&source=univ&client=firefox-b-1-d&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjs7vf7--PnAhUJ7J4KHWFKA3sQsAR6BAgGEAE&biw=1770&bih=979#imgrc=9oVCDhpI3s1xDM

Looks like the ARs will continue to cross the UK and Ireland for a bit longer, ... https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_cloud_water/orthographic=-1.25,53.55,827/loc=-7.796,53.548

There have been well above average rains/snow all around the globe over this winter. That is the sign of a cooling atmosphere, imo into the mid 2030s. In recent years I have come to wonder if a GM is nothing more than a Gleissberg causing/coinciding with a very large eruption. The temp record clearly shows cooling around every 110 years approximately.

A few things I must say, owing to my foundation of being a meteorological researcher first, and astrophysics nerd(non-accredited) second:

1. The above average precipitation owes to a warming atmosphere, not a cooling atmosphere. Convection occurs over oceanic temperature anomalies, most energetic at the ITCZ, and seasonally(for the Northern, Western Hemisphere) in the areas around Hadley Cells or in fronts associated with a strong polar vortex. As the temperature of the atmosphere increases, its capacity for carrying moisture also increases. This website uses reliable sources and lays it all out for you: https://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/atmospheric-moisture-increase

2. You are connecting an incorrect observation of the trend in the climate(in that it is cooling, whereas in reality, it is warming) with solar cycles. If you wish to have an accurate interpretation of the relationship between solar cycles and climate on Earth, you must first correct your understanding of the climate as it is today.

3. The amount of light that is absorbed by the planet increases more with deglaciation(thus reduction of albedo, AKA the amount of sunlight that is reflected away from the surfaces) than it does with the fluctuation of solar UV rays during solar cycles. This is due to the simple fact that the more light which is absorbed by the planet results in a more rapid heating of the surface. 

4. The ability for the Gulf Stream(the atmospheric current which is described in the first post above) to reach Western Europe is a direct result of two things: Higher moisture content in the atmosphere(which we should all agree is due to climate change trending towards warming), and a weak polar vortex(the jet stream which revolves around the north pole at varying latitudes.)

5. There has been no observed correlation between the above described weather phenomena, and volcanic eruptions; what you are arbitrarily describing as a "very large eruption" can not be inferred from meteorological data, as these meteorological factors are not uncommon.

6. The topic is about a type of solar minimum, where by definition the Sun's magnetic field undergoes a reversal of the north and south poles, and during this time, few sunspots are observed. If you would like to see the Sun in the spectrum of light where it would be most relevant to the subject matter you are presenting, look at PROBA and perhaps a history of PROBA-2 imagery to interpret the magnitude of UV rays emitted visually: 

This looks about the same as it has for several months, and I reckon looking back further than that, you would not see a significant increase in the magnitude of UV rays as seen from this instrument.

In short, a solar "wolf minimum" does not equate to devastation around the globe. If you can find absolute and scientifically sound causality, please share it. I would absolutely like to see it. 

[3gMike]

On 2/22/2020 at 1:32 PM, Christopher S. said:

A few things I must say, owing to my foundation of being a meteorological researcher first, and astrophysics nerd(non-accredited) second:

1. The above average precipitation owes to a warming atmosphere, not a cooling atmosphere. Convection occurs over oceanic temperature anomalies, most energetic at the ITCZ, and seasonally(for the Northern, Western Hemisphere) in the areas around Hadley Cells or in fronts associated with a strong polar vortex. As the temperature of the atmosphere increases, its capacity for carrying moisture also increases. This website uses reliable sources and lays it all out for you: https://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/atmospheric-moisture-increase

Whilst it is true to say that warmer air holds more moisture that does not necessarily mean that more precipitation is due to a warmer atmosphere. Precipitation will always arise when warm moist air is forced to cool. In this instance the U.K. is seeing a higher than average precipitation due to a shift in the jet stream. Warm, moisture laden,  air is being drawn up from near the equator and is coming up against a series of cold fronts. As a result there is high level of precipitation in a narrow band covering the U.K.

In addition NASA indicate that there is some correlation of rainfall in certain areas with the number of sunspots https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/rind_03/

In answer to the original question, I can see no evidence that we are entering a second Wolf Minimum at this time.

[Christopher S.]

1 hour ago, 3gMike said:

Whilst it is true to say that warmer air holds more moisture that does not necessarily mean that more precipitation is due to a warmer atmosphere. Precipitation will always arise when warm moist air is forced to cool. In this instance the U.K. is seeing a higher than average precipitation due to a shift in the jet stream. Warm, moisture laden,  air is being drawn up from near the equator and is coming up against a series of cold fronts. As a result there is high level of precipitation in a narrow band covering the U.K.

In addition NASA indicate that there is some correlation of rainfall in certain areas with the number of sunspots https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/rind_03/

In answer to the original question, I can see no evidence that we are entering a second Wolf Minimum at this time.

Fundamentally, the draw of moisture into the upper atmosphere occurs more vigorously when both SSTs and the atmosphere itself is warmer than it does when it is cooler. Precipitation itself does occur when the factors of Shear, Lift, Instability, and Moisture(SLIM) come together and while the resultant storms are cool in nature, it is not correct to say that they are caused by a cooler atmosphere. The cooler atmosphere interacts with a warmer atmosphere to give the SLIM factors in greater magnitude depending on how much exchange of cool, dry air from the polar region or extratropics occurs with the warm, moist air of the subtropics.

The article you linked corroborates this in sayings that Total Solar Irradiance increases a very small amount during solar minimum and thus the SSTs are able to increase to higher-than-average levels, lending credence to the idea that a warmer atmosphere is the cause of larger-scale precipitous events. In effect, a warmer atmosphere drives warm, moist air toward the north in greater speed and volume than a cooler atmosphere, as there is a greater difference between the climate zones and thus more instability and shear.

The phenomenon of cooling along the fronts is secondary to the phenomenon of the formation and persistence of the atmospheric rivers which drives them. It is not a mere shift in the jetstream, but instead the function of atmospheric moisture driven by the Coriolis Effect which will bring you subtropical and extratropical jets of moisture, and it can be enhanced by a weak polar vortex(when the jets near the poles relax and the cool, dry air tends to migrate south in fronts.)  

[cosnow]

With water vapor being the largest greenhouse gas (by many many factors of magnitude) and also the largest deflector of irradiance - how does an increase net out?  (For skiers it’s resulting in record conditions across the globe   )  could also indicate  an increase in albedo as well.   

 

We also have the following going on right now:

*  Extremely low levels of UV due to an increase in ozone (A good thing for those prone to skin cancer - but very bad for disease and viruses in humans).   Note: I would also include a reduction in UV due to the minimum- but we as humans no longer have a way to accurately measure.  

*  An extremely cold thermosphere - i.e compressed upper atmosphere.

*   Close to record levels of Cosmic rays.   

—

If I could ever get an accurate weather forecast (ya know sometime before it happens) I’d have less thoughts of some of the above (and other solar phenomena) having unknown and unstudied effects.  
 

So I’d give it a 50/50 we are heading into a wolf minimum. 

 

 

[Christopher S.]

2 hours ago, cosnow said:

With water vapor being the largest greenhouse gas (by many many factors of magnitude) and also the largest deflector of irradiance - how does an increase net out?  (For skiers it’s resulting in record conditions across the globe   )  could also indicate  an increase in albedo as well.   

 

We also have the following going on right now:

*  Extremely low levels of UV due to an increase in ozone (A good thing for those prone to skin cancer - but very bad for disease and viruses in humans).   Note: I would also include a reduction in UV due to the minimum- but we as humans no longer have a way to accurately measure.  

*  An extremely cold thermosphere - i.e compressed upper atmosphere.

*   Close to record levels of Cosmic rays.   

—

If I could ever get an accurate weather forecast (ya know sometime before it happens) I’d have less thoughts of some of the above (and other solar phenomena) having unknown and unstudied effects.  
 

So I’d give it a 50/50 we are heading into a wolf minimum. 

 

 

Those are some good things to consider. I would like to know where one can find periodic or real-time measurements of the temperatures in the thermosphere, they would be helpful in my own research.

I was also under the impression that a marginal increase in Total Solar Irradiance would mean an increase in UV and EUV light. While the surface will see fewer UV rays due to the reflectivity of cloud tops and total ozone coverage, there are still technically more of them directed at Earth in the absence of sunspots and coronal holes.

The difficulty of accurate weather forecasting varies based on where you live. In locations east of the Mediterranean, for instance, forecasts have historically lacked accuracy outside of a two-day period. For where I live, in the mountainous parts of Northern Arizona, the only accurate weather forecast elements are preceded by obvious and large-scale upper-level storm developments off the Pacific coast; local precipitation and rain-/snow-fall totals vary wildly from the forecast amount. Just a few days ago, a quarter inch of rain was supposed to fall here, and what actually took place was close to 4" of rain over the course of 24 hours and 1" of snow after that. Indeed, computer models need a bit of "help" I guess you could say. In mountainous areas, for instance, the physics of the lower atmosphere and its interaction with the terrain need to be considered, and these physics are not very well understood - at least, the methods to measure the necessary elements are not quite mature enough to lead to consistently accurate forecasts.

[Michele]

On 2/25/2020 at 5:13 AM, Christopher S. said:

Those are some good things to consider. I would like to know where one can find periodic or real-time measurements of the temperatures in the thermosphere, they would be helpful in my own research.

You can find Here some data https://www.spaceweather.com/

I check every day in both sites, here and there.

In my research I have found that when a big solar wind come here from Sun coronal holes the next days a big wind blow, i have observed this phenomena in Italy 3 times. One time the wind has destroyed an ancient wood with wind from NE at 190Km/h maximum speed. In the day before also the amplificatIon value depending on frequency reached a record and it was altered by Solar Wind from coronal holes wich have a faster speed. It happened on 2 November 2018.

Source: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/it/archivio/2018/11/01/fori-coronali (Big Central coronal Hole)

Other record of wind Speed was maden on 23 February 2019. Two days before solar wind was refistering this data.  https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/it/archivio/2019/02/21/aurora

For sure there has to be a co-interation and it should be interesting to research in this direction.

That Forest was never destroyed by wind in the last century...Stradivari was taking wood for violins from there.  During the event Temperature of Nord Pole was strangly High. 

It is a problem that I cannot put screenshots of my studies. A Public database does not exist for shuman resonance componenti variance. On the 22 february was reached a really High value of AmplificatIon depending on frequency with a peak at 103hz. 

Does Solar wind a "transormation" in Herth wind? Probably yes. Probably weather on Hearth is depending Much more from Sun then How we believe and other big Planets and Cosmic forces has for sure a secondary role.

I Hope that research will go in that direction because I have worked for "green" energy and CO2 compensation and I understood how that business world work. C02 disaster from Human being should be not so evident if we look our Star inside. C02 compensation title is on Wall Street. 5 years ago about was having a value of 70 euro/ton instead now that is 4 times reaching quite 300 euro/ton. Why this is happening if industrialized world is going to green energies? Studying hard and finding a new scientific way we will Save what is possible or we will destroy humanity by hourselfes in the game of corrupted Powers.  I think we have to start to open our eyes.

According to topic I think that a Maunder minimum is going to start but we have to wait to ensure if it will be on SC25 or SC26 maximum. For my personal idea we are going into a minimum now and SC25 will be Very very weak. But I could be in mistake, Sun is Sun I am Just a researcher. 

I am trying tu unclock a 385 years solar cycle. Last big minimum was about 350 years ago so I want to collect more Sun data before to reply with a Thesis. In case of a new Maunder type Minimum Global warming occourred till now will help umanity because a big cold will arrive and it will attuate a mitogation for the firsts cold years. We have to stay tuned and check! 

Have a nice day! 

Edited February 26, 2020 by Michele
Sources editing

[Aeon]

Hi, I'm new, but I'd like to say my opinion on this topic.

Although it is evident that we are in a Great Solar Recession, this does not mean a Wolf Minimum, a Maunder Minimum etc.
Each of these events is different from the first.
Rather it is clear that the acceleration of the Earth's magnetic pole is connected to the collapse of solar activity, the same can be said of the South Atlantic Anomaly.
Furthermore, a disappearance of the sunspots does not equate to a less active sun, for example it has been discovered that during the solar minimums the gamma rays increase.
In my opinion, when we look at certain solar parameters, probably the disappearance of some types of solar activity leads to an increase in other particular phenomena.

[Stephen Roy]

May I take this opportunity to thank you all for responding to my question. However, it seems that it remains unanswered:

" Chart showing solar activity recorded by Radiocarbon covering the period from 900 to 1900.

[The chart is reproduced here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle#Cycle_history ].

Unfortunately the plot stops at 1900. Does anyone have access to the data post 1900 and the skills to continue the plot? I am keen to know whether it will follow a similar pattern as the one from the Medieval Maximum to the Wolf Minimum (1280 - 1350).

 

[Michele]

17 hours ago, Aeon said:

Although it is evident that we are in a Great Solar Recession, this does not mean a Wolf Minimum, a Maunder Minimum etc.
Each of these events is different from the first.

Totally agree. We do not know long Solar cicles. Thanks 

[3gMike]

On 2/26/2020 at 4:43 PM, Stephen Roy said:

May I take this opportunity to thank you all for responding to my question. However, it seems that it remains unanswered:

" Chart showing solar activity recorded by Radiocarbon covering the period from 900 to 1900.

[The chart is reproduced here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle#Cycle_history ].

Unfortunately the plot stops at 1900. Does anyone have access to the data post 1900 and the skills to continue the plot? I am keen to know whether it will follow a similar pattern as the one from the Medieval Maximum to the Wolf Minimum (1280 - 1350).

 

I believe that the chart you refer actually covers the period to 1950. There is a problem from 1945 since the radiocarbon was artificially increased by explosion of nuclear bombs, and it is still some 20% higher than it was before that period. https://www.radiocarbon.com/carbon-dating-bomb-carbon.htm

I have found a webpage that gives information for radiocarbon in the period 1962 to 1993. I have not checked the detail but it may offer an opportunity for comparison with solar activity for the same period  https://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/epubs/ndp/ndp057/ndp057.html

Of course it will need correction for the 'bomb effect'.

[Stephen Roy]

@3gMike.

Thank you for your contribution. I was aware of the problem post 1945 with Radiocarbon measurements due to the testing and deployment of nuclear weapons.

However, I don't have a background in physics so would appreciate help from someone who does to add radiocarbon data post 1900 in the plot against solar activity post 1900.

My thanks once again.

Stephen

Edited February 28, 2020 by Stephen Roy

[goldminor]

On 2/22/2020 at 5:32 AM, Christopher S. said:

A few things I must say, owing to my foundation of being a meteorological researcher first, and astrophysics nerd(non-accredited) second.

 

 

Hello Chris, I got sidetracked by life over the last several months. On top of that it seems the entire world has changed in the last several months. I am going to write a new post which will present my idea of a solar/ENSO primary driver of temperature shifts in the Pacific ocean. That will answer a portion of your questions in so far as explaining how I draw my  conclusions.

[goldminor]

On 2/26/2020 at 8:43 AM, Stephen Roy said:

Unfortunately the plot stops at 1900. Does anyone have access to the data post 1900 and the skills to continue the plot? I am keen to know whether it will follow a similar pattern as the one from the Medieval Maximum to the Wolf Minimum (1280 - 1350).

 

There is one big difference between then and now. The Wolf Minimum occurs shortly after the end of the MWP. This current Modern Warm Period will likely run several more centuries before giving way to the next Cool Period. So I would think that the chances for such a steep drop would be small. Although there is one such example which can be seen around 1130 AD. This graph clearly depicts a steep and rapid temp decline right in the middle of the MWP, which is equivalent to where we are now. ... https://www.uni-mainz.de/eng/bilder_presse/09_geo_tree_ring_northern_europe_climate.jpg

[Gloria Hills]

On Watts Up With That, look up a Feb 9, 2018 article. "Forecast for Solar Cycle 25", by James A Marusek. It is long but educational.

[goldminor]

SpaceWeather has an interesting lead story this morning. It discusses polar sunspots. There was an area in the north at very high latitude which was close to forming a spot. I never realized that this was out of the ordinary. They had a nice link for further reading, ... https://www.stce.be/news/234/welcome.html

Another link took me to Wikis page of the butterfly diagrams displaying cycles 12 through 24. That made me wonder what the current outlook is for SC25. I get the impression from looking at their graph that SC25 will be similar to SC14. That could induce a well below average cold spell equal to the cold period of 1880s through into the 1910s. Look at what is taking place right now in the Northern Hemisphere. There are records being broken from the late 1800s and early 1900s with this current arctic outbreak. The timing is about right when looking at the spacing of previous GSMs or Gleissberg patterns. ... https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sunspot_butterfly_graph.gif#/media/File:Sunspot_butterfly_graph.gif

[Stephen Roy]

In my original post at the start of this topic I omitted to point out that in 2019 China slaughtered  50% of its swine herd due to 'African Swine Fever'. It is a fact that:

"Sunlight or, more specifically, solar UV radiation (UV) acts as the principal natural virucide in the environment. UV radiation kills viruses by chemically modifying their genetic material, DNA and RNA. The most effective wavelength for inactivation, 260 nm (55), falls in the UVC range, so-named to differentiate it from near-UV found in ground-level sunlight, i.e., the UVB and UVA portions of the spectrum, 290 to 320 nm and 320 to 380 nm, respectively (51). Nucleic acids are damaged also by UVB and UVA but with lower efficiency than by UVC radiation"

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1280232/

So does a 'quiet' Sun allow viruses such as African Swine fever and Covid 19-SARs2 thrive?

[Christopher S.]

I see this veering off into a conversation along the lines of "Is the solar minimum the cause of meat prices skyrocketing?" Where speculation leads to some tangential hypothesis and many leaps to conclusions along the way. Clearly, the recent minimum wasn't on the scale as many thought it might be, and as far as this train of thought goes, it's the end of the road.

It really isn't hard to make a topic, put your question or hypothesis as the title, and properly advertise the kind of discussion you want to have/people will find when they check here daily! So why does this keep happening, with the same offender?

[goldminor]

6 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

I see this veering off into a conversation

The topic is "Is the current solar minimum leading to a second Wolf Minimum?". You appear to have a deep grudge against anything I say. Too bad for you. My comment is in regards to the possibility of a deeper cold wave taking place, either in the form of a GSM or a Gleissberg. I think that it is very likely that this solar cycle will lead us into one or the other as it progresses. Also that the chances of a deep cold wave are very likely over the next 15+ years, and perhaps for one cycle past that. I would point to the current exceptionally deep cold wave in the NH as proof of my contention. Records are being broken which date back to the late 1800s and early 1900s. That points to the possibility that this is just the start of one of these longer cyclic events. I am not alone in thinking such thoughts.

[Archmonoth]

12 hours ago, goldminor said:

 ..I am not alone in thinking such thoughts.

 

Then place your bet, guess your guess.

12 hours ago, goldminor said:

Also that the chances of a deep cold wave are very likely over the next 15+ years, and perhaps for one cycle past that.

 

If its very likely in 15+ years, how can you be wrong?

Your statement is vague enough to be true, and just as useless.

[Christopher S.]

I wouldn't call it a grudge to point out when somebody is off-topic, especially when they have a habit of hijacking conversations with vague, superstitious, and irrelevant hypotheses. I really would rather see new topics and new conversations, not the revival of dead ones that have been hijacked. You shouldn't "cheat" people into reading what you have to say by doing this. It's deceptive and honestly frustrating.

[Stephen Roy]

@Christopher S. Unless I've misunderstood what you are saying you imply that you think the current solar minimum is over. However, there are at least 13 recognised bodies / specialists that have widely varying predictions of the Sunspot number for Cycle 25, including NASA which apparently forecast 30%-50% less than Cycle 24.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

It’s the same thing with each cycle with predictions lower and stronger than the previous cycles. During the previous minimum that lasted way longer then anticipated and had the same discussions that we see today. 

Only time will tell which prediction came out right. Too early to draw any conclusions yet. So let this topic rest a bit until we’re past solar max  

[goldminor]

3 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

I wouldn't call it a grudge to point out when somebody is off-topic, especially when they have a habit of hijacking conversations with vague, superstitious, and irrelevant hypotheses. I really would rather see new topics and new conversations, not the revival of dead ones that have been hijacked. You shouldn't "cheat" people into reading what you have to say by doing this. It's deceptive and honestly frustrating.

And here you go again off topic. The subject is about a possible deep cold trend setting in. You are making me the topic. My comment spoke directly to my thoughts on that possibility. I view the climate as being cyclical. Which is where my reasoning comes from in determining that a cool trend should be the most likely next climate shift over time. The last such cool trend was from the late 1940s to the late 1970s. Look back to the prior 30+ years, and you see a warm trend which is very similar to the warm trend which started in the late 1970s. The important question is how cool will this trend be. Will this be the spot where temps drop sharply as can be seen on different long term temp graphs. In my upper comment I had mentioned viewing Wiki's butterfly chart. I think that the history of what it shows indicates what Stephen Roy suggests in his comment below mine. The butterfly diagram is what sparked my thoughts the other day. I had never given it much of a look over before. My interest always centered more on the general progression of any given solar cycle, and any correlations with major rain events on the West Coast and the sunspot record.

The nature of this conversation will always be speculative because we are all guesstimating what the future may bring, as Sanders alludes to with his comment.