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How to confirm coming Geomagnetic storm?


oemSpace

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Referring to following link, I would like to know on how to confirm coming Geomagnetic storm based on kp index forecast as shown below:

For 27 day outlook, Kp index reaches 3 level on Kp Index, but maximum 2 is only show on 3-hourly Kp index forecast.

#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index

2020 Feb 21      71           5          2
2020 Feb 22      71          10          3
2020 Feb 23      71           8          3


NOAA Kp index forecast 21 Feb - 23 Feb
             Feb 21    Feb 22    Feb 23
00-03UT        2         2         2
03-06UT        2         1         1
06-09UT        1         1         2
09-12UT        1         1         1
12-15UT        1         1         1
15-18UT        1         1         1
18-21UT        1         2         1
21-00UT        2         2         2

 

Does anyone have any suggestions on how to read those forecast data?
Thanks in advance for any suggestions

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-geomagnetic-forecast

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These are more advanced products for forecasting space weather than would be ideal for an average aurora watcher; these aid in determining the interference and charging of satellites, as well as the record keeping and prediction of solar cycles and associated activity.

If you are truly curious about how to use the Space Weather Prediction Center's products, refer to this page: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

SWL also has a page which updates with current SWPC warnings and watches which will allow you to get the 3-day advance warning of a geomagnetic storm, although sometimes it is not a full three days ahead. See here: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/reports/noaa-swpc-alerts-watches-and-warnings

The first link explaining the SWPC products will aid in reading the information provided by the second link. Remember that Kp4 through Kp6 can and often do give visible auroras above 65º latitude, while Kp7 and above are considered Geomagnetic Storms, which can induce electrical currents at ground-level, while also extending the visible auroras further down in latitude.

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Referring to following different sources, I would like to know on why the first source mentions Kp4, but no the second source with maximum 2.

Do you have any suggestions on which one is more reliable on Kp Index forecast?
Thank you very much for any suggestions (^v^)

 

Friday, 21 February 2020

00:17 UTC

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3713
Issue Time: 2020 Feb 21 0017 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2020 Feb 21 0015 UTC
Valid To: 2020 Feb 21 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/reports/noaa-swpc-alerts-watches-and-warnings

NOAA Kp index forecast 21 Feb - 23 Feb
             Feb 21    Feb 22    Feb 23
00-03UT        2         2         2
03-06UT        2         1         1
06-09UT        1         1         2
09-12UT        1         1         1
12-15UT        1         1         1
15-18UT        1         1         1
18-21UT        1         2         1
21-00UT        2         2         2

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-geomagnetic-forecast

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The 3-day forecast runs on a schedule. The alert above the forecast in your post was issued just at the onset of Kp4 conditions. It is easier to issue a warning or alert than it is to re-run the forecast model, and thus, it is to your advantage to give the actual warnings and alerts priority over the 3-day forecast. Note that forecast =/= recorded, actual conditions.

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7 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

The 3-day forecast runs on a schedule. The alert above the forecast in your post was issued just at the onset of Kp4 conditions. It is easier to issue a warning or alert than it is to re-run the forecast model, and thus, it is to your advantage to give the actual warnings and alerts priority over the 3-day forecast. Note that forecast =/= recorded, actual conditions.

I would like to confirm on whether following report is the actual events or forecast.

Do you have any suggestions?
Thank you very much for any suggestions (^v^)

 

Friday, 21 February 2020

00:17 UTC

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3713
Issue Time: 2020 Feb 21 0017 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2020 Feb 21 0015 UTC
Valid To: 2020 Feb 21 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

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Quote

#-------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2149
Issue Time: 2020 Feb 21 0119 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2020 Feb 21 0115 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
   <snip>
#-------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3713
Issue Time: 2020 Feb 21 0017 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2020 Feb 21 0015 UTC
Valid To: 2020 Feb 21 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
   <snip>
#-------------------------------------------------

Compare your quoted alert (#3713) and the next one (#2149).
Yours (#3713) is just an expectation warning
(“WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected”), with a first
posting status (“Warning Condition: Onset”)—if it is a continued
alert, it would be “Warning Condition: Persistence”.
The second one (#2149) is an actual alert of the condition
actually being reached (“Threshold Reached: 2020 Feb 21 0115 UTC”).

 

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Following reports seem more informative, since it reports what issues are actually occurred, and what next issues would occur.

Do spaceweatherlive data come from swpc.noaa?

Friday, 21 February 2020
12:59 UTC

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3022
Issue Time: 2020 Feb 21 1259 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3021
Begin Time: 2020 Feb 20 1625 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2790 pfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
01:19 UTC

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2149
Issue Time: 2020 Feb 21 0119 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2020 Feb 21 0115 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/reports/noaa-swpc-alerts-watches-and-warnings

 

Comparing with following report, it only report on what would occur without confirming what was actually occurred.

NOAA Kp index forecast 22 Feb - 24 Feb
             Feb 22    Feb 23    Feb 24
00-03UT        3         2         2
03-06UT        3         1         1
06-09UT        2         2         1
09-12UT        2         1         1
12-15UT        1         1         1
15-18UT        1         1         1
18-21UT        2         1         2
21-00UT        2         2         2

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-geomagnetic-forecast

 

I would like to know on whether swpc.noaa has any similar report on what event is actually occurred or not.

Do you have any suggestions?
Thanks, to everyone very much for any suggestions (^v^)

 

 

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Referring to following report, CONTINUED ALERT is contained, I would like to know on whether it is already stop or not at this moment.

If this event is finished, where to find this report.

Does anyone have any suggestions?
Thanks, to everyone very much for any suggestions (^v^)

 

Tuesday, 11 February 2020
13:33 UTC

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3020
Issue Time: 2020 Feb 11 1333 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3019
Begin Time: 2020 Feb 08 1335 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 6022 pfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

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I will try to answer your questions in a series:

1. Yes, the SWPC alerts on this website come directly from the SWPC's website.

2. The forecast is a prediction of what conditions SWPC expects. These are amended by warnings that may or may not have been predicted by SWPC's models or observations. Warnings are issued regardless of the forecast if the event being forewarned is of potential danger to satellites.

3. The alert condition represents a concurring event, which may or may not have a predicted termination phase. That is to say, unless the Space Weather Message specifies a "Valid from:" and "Valid to:" period, it is still a valid alert. 

4. There is not necessarily a value to aurora watching or scientific research merely by cataloging certain alert statuses, however, I believe you can look at the history of SWPC alerts and warnings on this very website. There are no summaries or reports in a simplified format at this time which describe the substance of the warnings or alerts; again, these are Space Weather products which are more useful for satellite operators or communication administrations, rather than researchers or aurora watchers. The Space Environment Monitor of GOES-15, however, may be useful if you are attempting to build a foundation for your own research material: SEM G-15

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4 uren geleden, Christopher S. zei:

1. Yes, the SWPC alerts on this website come directly from the SWPC's website.

Indeed. As soon as the NOAA SWPC issues a geomagnetic storm ALERT we process it and send it out our own alerts on Twitter and the app as soon as our system has handled the request. Watches and warnings are not something we process but can still be consulted here: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/reports/noaa-swpc-alerts-watches-and-warnings

Alerts for solar flares, proton storms, CME impacts, coronal holes and radio blackouts are handled in a different way and are based on algorithms we developed ourselves. Thank you for the comprehensive post Christopher.

12 uren geleden, oemSpace zei:

I would like to know on whether swpc.noaa has any similar report on what event is actually occurred or not.

No I do not think they issue any sort of report where they compare what they had in their forecast and what actually occurred.

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