Jump to content

Helio-Casting; Unlocking Solar Secrets, by 'theartist'


theartist

Recommended Posts

Unlocking Solar Secrets, by 'theartist'. 

After weeks of daily observation, theartist noticed a change in recent magnetograms produced by the National Solar Observatory.  On December 13, 2019, theartist subsequently went on to make the following announcement on the thread titled, Like 'tuning a radio'...:

A 'change' happened; you can see this consequent change in the most recent synoptic magnetogram, Figure 1:

spacer.png

Figure 1. The highlighted area in the above magnetogram is an aggregate of activity arising on the photosphere surface, at practically all latitudes.

 

In the days following that announcement, multiple photospheric magnetic structures (mag-structures) appeared on the solar disk.  Some of these mag-structures were above the critical +32deg latitude, being the first ones observed above the critical latitude in the SC24/SC25 minimum transition.  Some of these mag-structures produced sunspots, and all the mag-structures that did produce sunspots possessed SC25 polarity!  Recall, these spots appeared after a very long stretch of spotless days. The mag-structure active regions producing sunspots are called out in Figure 2.

spacer.png

Figure 2. Mag-structure active regions producing sunspots are called out in the above magnetogram.

 

And now, one Carrington Rotation later, we see another 'Aggregate of activity' plasma surge, again near the 270deg Carrington LongitudeFigure 3:

spacer.png

Figure 3. The highlighted area in the above magnetogram is an aggregate of activity arising on the photosphere surface near the 270deg Carrington Longitude.

This time around, the 'Aggregate of activity' plasma surge appears even more active, containing a large mag-structure located near the solar equator.

Twelve (12) days after theartist's announcement on Dec 13, sunspots appeared on the solar disk on December 24.  That was ten (10) days after the 300deg Carrington Longitude associated with Dec 14 (as observed in Figure 1).  Note however, that AR12753 (which produced those sunspots) is associated with December 28 in the magnetogram shown in Figure 2.  Thus, sunspots first appeared (from AR12753) in a time-frame of 10-14 days after the 'Aggregate of activity' situated around the 270deg Carrington Longitude. Therefore, will we possibly see more sunspots appearing around the time-frame 10-14 days after Jan 10 (the date associated with the 300deg Carrington Longitude in Figure 3)?  

Thusly, is the 'heliosphere planetary setup' going to present opportunity for more sunspots around Jan 20-24? Figure 4 is what it looks like for January 24:

spacer.png

Figure 4. On Jan 24, 2020, an Earth-Venus-Neptune geocentric conjunction will occur, along with a Mercury-Neptune inferior conjunction.

In addition to the Earth-Venus-Neptune geocentric conjunction and the Mercury-Neptune inferior conjunction, the planetary setup around Jan 24, 2020 has nearly a Venus-Uranus inferior conjunction and nearly an Earth-Saturn superior conjunction.

So what do you think, kind viewer?  What is the probability of sunspots to appear around Jan 21-24? I give it a >70% chancebut not higher, since we are, after all, in a very deep solar minimum.

Edited by theartist
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, theartist said:

So what do you think, kind viewer?  What is the probability of sunspots to appear around Jan 21-24? I give it a >70% chancebut not higher, since we are, after all, in a very deep solar minimum.

I dont see much chance of sunspots until January 28th +/- a few days=2-3days. These sunspots will arise on mid to south latitude on solar disc.

Then on February 7th +/-a few days, sunspots will arise on mid latitude.

Again on February 15th +/- a few days, sunspots will arise high north on solar disc. Belonging to SC25. As theartist says, it a very deep minimum so some of these predictions may only be H-alpha plages without sunspots.

 

Edited by The Norwegian
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Norwegian, one ultimate objective here, is to increase the granularity of solar forecasting beyond anything that has been done today. In order to do that, as we go forward, the methodology will need to be further revealed, and the luster of this theory will be brought forth, to shine, or not, depending upon the integrity of its merits.  I think we have progressed now beyond the point of just 'drive-by predictions', without reasoning provided behind them, since that is counter-productive to the ultimate objective. 

I think I see what you are looking at. (After all, I started laying my planetary theory out months ago on this forum, for example, in the thread titled, "Stochastic influence on solar cycle activity: planetary clocking?"--which is a great one for the newcomers to get started). However, nobody will be sure whether we are seeing the same thing, unless one actually specifically states what they are looking at.

So then, I gave an example in the original post to this thread. I stated the reasoning of my forecast for sunspots to appear around Jan 21-24, by listing the planetary conjunctions that are coming into play. I respectfully ask that you start doing the same on a thread I have started, and then by teamwork, we will hammer out a theory to 'shine like the sun'. I even put down a probability, but it is early in the development of this theory so the value of the forecast probabilities will hopefully increase in significance (with greater understanding of the patterns, caveats, etc.).  If you can put your probabilities behind your forecasts, all the better, but even something like "a 50-50 chance" or "no probability assigned" may be more appropriate at this point in time.   

So please, starting with your first post to this thread, go back and clarify what you are seeing for your forecasts of Jan 28th, Feb 7th, Feb 15. (Because the mods have now made it somewhat of a pain to link imagery, I don't expect you to attach images). 

Thank you; respectfully, 'theartist'.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sunspots are generating but they disappear when they are earth faced in this moment. 

Betelgeuse is not the brightest Orion star. Something is evolving in Universe and it will be not possible to decript just by numbers. It is time to open our view to this big changment. Solar cycle 25 will not have High solar spot density and it will start on delay.

Stay well.

Good bye   

Edited by Michele
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey Michele, I enjoy your posts.  Check out my latest posts on the thread titled, "Solar Cycle 'Rosetta Stone' Has Been Found!?!", where I compare cycles with Uranus in Taurus versus cycles where Uranus is in opposition to Taurus.  A key suggestion is that the Uranus/Taurus (Pleiades) conjunct are just coincident to the real cause, which is that Uranus' magnetic orientation favors sunspot formation when it is in the Taurus constellation (particularly if it occurs near the cycle's solar maximum). 🤔 What do you think about that? 😊

14 minutes ago, theartist said:

A key suggestion is that the Uranus/Taurus (Pleiades) conjunct are just coincident to the real cause, which is that Uranus' magnetic orientation favors sunspot formation when it is in the Taurus constellation (particularly if it occurs near the cycle's solar maximum).

According to theartist's 'Planetary Clocking Thesis', changing location and orientation of the 'planetary magnets' are heliosphere perturbations which affect the Quality Factor of the Heliosphere's Electromagnetic Resonation Characteristics.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/15/2020 at 3:05 PM, theartist said:

So please, starting with your first post to this thread, go back and clarify what you are seeing for your forecasts of Jan 28th, Feb 7th, Feb 15. (Because the mods have now made it somewhat of a pain to link imagery, I don't expect you to attach images). 

Thank you; respectfully, 'theartist'.

Sorry it took some time before my reply, but I only do this now and then :)

*I don`t see much chance of sunspots until January 28th +/- a few days=2-3days. These sunspots will arise on mid to south latitude on solar disc. Due to Venus and Mercury align, which might "pull out" sunspots.

*Then on February 7th +/-a few days, sunspots will arise on mid latitude. Due to Mercury is on the opposite side of Jupiter, (the tidal effect from Jupiter works both on the side of the sun facing Jupiter, and on the opposite side). However, here is more chanse of H-alpha plages without sunspots, I believe

*Again on February 15th +/- a few days, sunspots will arise high north on solar disc. Belonging to SC25. As theartist says, it a very deep minimum so some of these predictions may only be H-alpha plages without sunspots. Due to Mercury and Earth align, this will "pull out" sunspot on high north latitudes, belonging to SC25. I hope :)

I hope I explained myself understandably.

On 1/18/2020 at 5:45 PM, theartist said:

spacer.png

Today 01/24/2020 we can see a tiny, tiny spot :)  Nice work Mr. "theartist"🏆

 

Edited by The Norwegian
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Michele said:

I think it will disappear when it will be hearth faced!

Nice job Artist!

Thanks. That pore I pointed out earlier in this thread is not the spot that popped up today which is showing some nice magnetic intensity.  True, it may die down long before it exits the west limb. However, we are now moving solidly into a Mars/Venus Superior Conjunction, while there still exists a bit of a long-range Neptune/Earth/Venus Conjunct. Mercury is now swinging around behind the east limb, so you may wish to watch the high latitude active region that's been in the STEREO-A imagery over the past few days. 

Bottom-line, will we consequently register spots almost daily for the rest of January?  If so, the ISN monthly mean would end up >4, the first time that has happened since May of 2019!

P.S. Michele, since you are a Pluto fan, we also have Earth roughly in-plane with Saturn and Pluto this coming week. 😊 

12 hours ago, The Norwegian said:

the tidal effect from Jupiter

There is more than gravitational tidal effects going on, my friend. For your reading pleasure, from the vaults of olden-times, uncovering secrets of past discoveries:

spacer.png

(source of olden-times paper).

Enjoy!  😄

Edited by theartist
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, The Novitiate said:

Did you see that it was going to be an SC-24 hold over

At this juncture, I'm not trying to forecast where spots will appear latitudinally.  We are still in the solar minimum transition phase, in which the cycles will overlap; higher latitude spots will generally have next-cycle (i.e. SC25) polarity, while spots closer to the equator may possess polarity from either cycle, though will generally possess previous-cycle polarity.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/15/2020 at 8:03 AM, The Norwegian said:

I dont see much chance of sunspots until January 28th +/- a few days=2-3days. These sunspots will arise on mid to south latitude on solar disc.

Then on February 7th +/-a few days, sunspots will arise on mid latitude.

Again on February 15th +/- a few days, sunspots will arise high north on solar disc. Belonging to SC25. As theartist says, it a very deep minimum so some of these predictions may only be H-alpha plages without sunspots.

 

I predicted sunspot on January 28th +/- a few days. It was predicted to emerge on mid to South latitude and now it is starting to emerge. Hopefully it will be an registered sunspot in a day or two :)  It`s seems to belong to SC25.

 

 spacer.png

Edited by The Norwegian
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, The Norwegian said:

I predicted sunspot on January 28th +/- a few days.

Except there was a slight problem with your prediction.  When asked to clarify the reasoning, you stated the following:

On 1/24/2020 at 2:27 AM, The Norwegian said:

Due to Venus and Mercury align, which might "pull out" sunspots.

There currently is no Venus/Mercury Heliocentric Conjunction going on.  So what is this new method of 'alignment' you are referring to?🤔

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, theartist said:

Except there was a slight problem with your prediction.  When asked to clarify the reasoning, you stated the following:

There currently is no Venus/Mercury Heliocentric Conjunction going on.  So what is this new method of 'alignment' you are referring to?🤔

The problem is probably my bad explanation, so you don`t understand what I mean :)  Mercury is coming between The Sun and Venus, so you can draw a straight line from The Sun and thru Mercury, and over to Venus...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

"Mercury coming between The Sun and Venus" is what is referred to as a Heliocentric Conjunction.  When that happens and Mercury is on the same side as Venus, it is an Inferior Conjunction.  A Superior Conjunction is when they are in alignment with, but on opposite sides of, the sun.  The Mercury/Venus Inferior Conjunction does not happen until February 10.  Does your simulator indicate that, or not?  If not, then it has major errors, and should not be used for serious work.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, theartist said:

"Mercury coming between The Sun and Venus" is what is referred to as a Heliocentric Conjunction.  When that happens and Mercury is on the same side as Venus, it is an Inferior Conjunction.  A Superior Conjunction is when they are in alignment with, but on opposite sides of, the sun.  The Mercury/Venus Inferior Conjunction does not happen until February 10.  Does your simulator indicate that, or not?  If not, then it has major errors, and should not be used for serious work.

Well, first of all, I don`t do serious work, just hobby :) 

Yes, the simulator I use shows Sun, Mercury and Venus in line approx 2020.01.31 However, sunspots emerge 3-6 days earlier than the actual date. Almost every prediction I have made (10-15) with this simulator the last 8-10month has happend. 

Even if the simulator does not show the correct position of planets, it is certainly good at predicting sunspots ;)

We`ll just has to wait and see how I do in my further predictions. If all my predictions are just luck, it will eventually run out..

 

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, theartist said:

"Mercury coming between The Sun and Venus" is what is referred to as a Heliocentric Conjunction.  When that happens and Mercury is on the same side as Venus, it is an Inferior Conjunction.  A Superior Conjunction is when they are in alignment with, but on opposite sides of, the sun.  The Mercury/Venus Inferior Conjunction does not happen until February 10.  Does your simulator indicate that, or not?  If not, then it has major errors, and should not be used for serious work.

First of all "theartist", thank you for teaching me the right concepts, then thank you for informing me about the error in the simulator,

I have checked it now and Mercury is about 10 days too far ahead in its orbit. I have now adjusted for it and emerging sunspot we are seeing far south belonging to SC25 may be due to an Inferior Conjunction between Neptun and Mercury. So this was just a coincidense(Lucky) :)

When I adjust further, I get the following chances for sunspots:

2020.02.09 +/- a few days sunpots slightly south of mid-latitude due to Inferior Conjunction between Mercury and Venus. Probably SC24

2020.02.16 +/- a few days sunspots north of mid-latitude due to Superior Conjunction between Mercury and Jupiter. This could be both SC24/25

2020.02.25 +/- a few days sunspots high north latitude due to Inferior Conjunction between Mercury and Earth. This will for sure belong to SC25.

2020.02.28 +/- a few days sunspots mid-latitude/slightly north due to Superior Conjunction between Venus and Jupiter. Probably SC24

I hope there is not another error in my simulator, but I will try to find another simulator for further predictions.

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
On 1/27/2020 at 6:36 AM, theartist said:

"Mercury coming between The Sun and Venus" is what is referred to as a Heliocentric Conjunction.  When that happens and Mercury is on the same side as Venus, it is an Inferior Conjunction.  A Superior Conjunction is when they are in alignment with, but on opposite sides of, the sun.  The Mercury/Venus Inferior Conjunction does not happen until February 10.  Does your simulator indicate that, or not?  If not, then it has major errors, and should not be used for serious work.

The Heliocentric animations show me Mercury and Venus are 3 degrees apart between now and the 11th. Evening of the Solar Orbiter launch 🚀 there appears to be an issue with communications. We will see. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue. By using this site, you also agree to our Terms of Use and our Privacy Policy.