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Helio-Casting; Unlocking Solar Secrets, by 'theartist'

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Unlocking Solar Secrets, by 'theartist'. 

After weeks of daily observation, theartist noticed a change in recent magnetograms produced by the National Solar Observatory.  On December 13, 2019, theartist subsequently went on to make the following announcement on the thread titled, Like 'tuning a radio'...:

A 'change' happened; you can see this consequent change in the most recent synoptic magnetogram, Figure 1:

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Figure 1. The highlighted area in the above magnetogram is an aggregate of activity arising on the photosphere surface, at practically all latitudes.

 

In the days following that announcement, multiple photospheric magnetic structures (mag-structures) appeared on the solar disk.  Some of these mag-structures were above the critical +32deg latitude, being the first ones observed above the critical latitude in the SC24/SC25 minimum transition.  Some of these mag-structures produced sunspots, and all the mag-structures that did produce sunspots possessed SC25 polarity!  Recall, these spots appeared after a very long stretch of spotless days. The mag-structure active regions producing sunspots are called out in Figure 2.

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Figure 2. Mag-structure active regions producing sunspots are called out in the above magnetogram.

 

And now, one Carrington Rotation later, we see another 'Aggregate of activity' plasma surge, again near the 270deg Carrington LongitudeFigure 3:

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Figure 3. The highlighted area in the above magnetogram is an aggregate of activity arising on the photosphere surface near the 270deg Carrington Longitude.

This time around, the 'Aggregate of activity' plasma surge appears even more active, containing a large mag-structure located near the solar equator.

Twelve (12) days after theartist's announcement on Dec 13, sunspots appeared on the solar disk on December 24.  That was ten (10) days after the 300deg Carrington Longitude associated with Dec 14 (as observed in Figure 1).  Note however, that AR12753 (which produced those sunspots) is associated with December 28 in the magnetogram shown in Figure 2.  Thus, sunspots first appeared (from AR12753) in a time-frame of 10-14 days after the 'Aggregate of activity' situated around the 270deg Carrington Longitude. Therefore, will we possibly see more sunspots appearing around the time-frame 10-14 days after Jan 10 (the date associated with the 300deg Carrington Longitude in Figure 3)?  

Thusly, is the 'heliosphere planetary setup' going to present opportunity for more sunspots around Jan 20-24? Figure 4 is what it looks like for January 24:

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Figure 4. On Jan 24, 2020, an Earth-Venus-Neptune geocentric conjunction will occur, along with a Mercury-Neptune inferior conjunction.

In addition to the Earth-Venus-Neptune geocentric conjunction and the Mercury-Neptune inferior conjunction, the planetary setup around Jan 24, 2020 has nearly a Venus-Uranus inferior conjunction and nearly an Earth-Saturn superior conjunction.

So what do you think, kind viewer?  What is the probability of sunspots to appear around Jan 21-24? I give it a >70% chancebut not higher, since we are, after all, in a very deep solar minimum.

Edited by theartist

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16 hours ago, theartist said:

So what do you think, kind viewer?  What is the probability of sunspots to appear around Jan 21-24? I give it a >70% chancebut not higher, since we are, after all, in a very deep solar minimum.

I dont see much chance of sunspots until January 28th +/- a few days=2-3days. These sunspots will arise on mid to south latitude on solar disc.

Then on February 7th +/-a few days, sunspots will arise on mid latitude.

Again on February 15th +/- a few days, sunspots will arise high north on solar disc. Belonging to SC25. As theartist says, it a very deep minimum so some of these predictions may only be H-alpha plages without sunspots.

 

Edited by The Norwegian
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Norwegian, one ultimate objective here, is to increase the granularity of solar forecasting beyond anything that has been done today. In order to do that, as we go forward, the methodology will need to be further revealed, and the luster of this theory will be brought forth, to shine, or not, depending upon the integrity of its merits.  I think we have progressed now beyond the point of just 'drive-by predictions', without reasoning provided behind them, since that is counter-productive to the ultimate objective. 

I think I see what you are looking at. (After all, I started laying my planetary theory out months ago on this forum, for example, in the thread titled, "Stochastic influence on solar cycle activity: planetary clocking?"--which is a great one for the newcomers to get started). However, nobody will be sure whether we are seeing the same thing, unless one actually specifically states what they are looking at.

So then, I gave an example in the original post to this thread. I stated the reasoning of my forecast for sunspots to appear around Jan 21-24, by listing the planetary conjunctions that are coming into play. I respectfully ask that you start doing the same on a thread I have started, and then by teamwork, we will hammer out a theory to 'shine like the sun'. I even put down a probability, but it is early in the development of this theory so the value of the forecast probabilities will hopefully increase in significance (with greater understanding of the patterns, caveats, etc.).  If you can put your probabilities behind your forecasts, all the better, but even something like "a 50-50 chance" or "no probability assigned" may be more appropriate at this point in time.   

So please, starting with your first post to this thread, go back and clarify what you are seeing for your forecasts of Jan 28th, Feb 7th, Feb 15. (Because the mods have now made it somewhat of a pain to link imagery, I don't expect you to attach images). 

Thank you; respectfully, 'theartist'.

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On 1/14/2020 at 8:48 AM, theartist said:

What is the probability of sunspots to appear around Jan 21-24? I give it a >70% chancebut not higher, since we are, after all, in a very deep solar minimum.

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