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Michele

Solar minimum is now?

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I believe we entered Solar minimum.

Look at Sun activity...is going to be come zero. X rays fallen down in quantity.

If it will be long until April next solar cycle sould will not have sunspots letting the world enter in a little cold age time.

Enjoy analyisis :)

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Hi Michele.  There has been a change (which I have not discussed yet...and would like to see more confirmation).  But it has happened, so far, without a large photospheric magnetic structure above the 32deg latitude.  And as you know, there are not sunspots without large-enough photospheric magnetic structures.  So play the 'what-if' scenarios....we DID have a quick precipitous plunge in the latter half of 2019, so maybe we will have a quick bounce-back.  If so, that would suggest a cycle 25 larger than cycle 24, unless......

5 hours ago, Michele said:

X rays fallen down in quantity.

I hope you did not come to that conclusion by assuming the new GOES 16 values are comparable to the previous GOES 15 values.

 

5 hours ago, Michele said:

If it will be long until April next solar cycle sould will not have sunspots

No, even if April turns out to be the minimum, then that means there are sunspots forming out beyond April in order to make April the minimum.  If there were no sunspots for several months, then the minimum point will just be prolonged out further in time.

Edited by theartist

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On 12/13/2019 at 12:57 PM, theartist said:

There has been a change (which I have not discussed yet...and would like to see more confirmation).

The 'change' I was referring to can for now be considered minor and subtle, something observed in the GONG quick-look magnetograms; after mentioning it to you here, I posted about it over in this thread titled,   "Like 'tuning a radio'...."  You might wish to check that thread out, wherein I point out an upcoming planetary alignment.

 

5 hours ago, Michele said:

Ok. GOES 16 is different but...

 The X-ray sensor on GOES-16 is much more sensitive than GOES-15.  There is a website news article on it here:   https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/399/20191209-welcome-goes-16 .

5 hours ago, Michele said:

Did you look Goes 15?

You can compare GOES 15 with the new GOES 16 at this link:  https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux-dynamic-plot

Even though the GOES 16 sensors are more sensitive, nonetheless, it seems counterintuitive that the Longer wave X-ray sensor would be registering a lower intensity than the Shorter over the past couple of days, but that may be due to a loss of absolute accuracy when the magnitudes are in such low ranges.

702792284_ScreenShot2019-12-14at1_42_58PM.thumb.png.221c5486418b44f33d8fe2da21fa55f1.png

 

There is additional discussion on the new GOES-16 X-ray readings over in the "Questions" forum, here:  https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/topic/1617-new-goes-16-readings/

 

 

Edited by theartist

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