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theartist

Solar Cycle 25 Forecasting

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Over the past several months, the threads I've started on this forum have been a "stream of consciousness", where you the reader have been allowed to watch my learning process in pursuit of a Solar Cycle 25 Forecast that is based on sound physical principles that we can all understand.  When I come across insights, sometimes it is hard to contain my excitement, and I share it by putting it out there in the 'internet ether', here on this forum.

I'll continue in that vein here, in this thread.  

In very recent weeks, I've been looking at magnetograms.  [Note: This thread is a follow-on to the thread titled, "Synoptic Magnetograms; SC24 Minimum Forecasting".]  Now, with greater understanding of that tool, greater confidence in our forecast will be achieved, as we merge that understanding with our previous findings.

I'm going to now drop a couple of what very well may be quite insightful graphs.  (Folks, this stuff could be huge, and it will have ramifications, going forward, on how solar cycle forecasting is done in the future.) I plan to update the following graphs with annotations.

Edited by theartist
Added thread reference.

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44250473_SC2324withgreenoscillationswithtext.thumb.jpg.50303cb080fc72b1b5a1abf1b63d0e17.jpg

Figure 1.  SC23/24 Transition. Carrington Rotation cycles are observed within 'oscillations of magnetic structure matrices'.

 

2041174491_SC2425withgreenoscillations.thumb.jpg.69e3791bbbd6954dff514f9f906c7cda.jpg

Figure 2.  SC24/25 Transition.  'Oscillations of magnetic structure matrices' are highlighted in green (as in Figure 1).

 

In Figure 1 and Figure 2 above, the cyclic oscillations of the F10.7cm Flux, within the larger mag-structure oscillations (highlighted in green), generally occur over multiple Carrington Rotations.

Edited by theartist

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What is termed a 'mag-structure oscillation' in Figure 1 above, is a matrix collection of smaller photospheric 'magnetic-structures'.  Sometimes these smaller 'mag-structures' get assigned Active Region numbers.

Edited by theartist

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The temporal change of some 'magnetic structure matrix (MSM) oscillations' are illustrated in the following figures.  The highlighted Carrington Rotations (CR) in Figure 3 are from the SC23/24 transition.  Their respective magnetogram maps are shown in Figure 4.

908877427_HighlightedCRs.thumb.jpg.058ed99e948bee8cb73a602774f56994.jpg

Figure 3. Carrington Rotation callouts within their 'magnetic structure matrix (MSM) oscillations'.

 

810045372_SC2324magnetogrammapsannotated.thumb.jpg.3f66635555e69345814b2e672f299355.jpg

Figure 4.  A recurring 'magnetic structure matrix' (MSM) is observed in the magnetogram maps of the SC23/24 transition.

Edited by theartist

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The most accurate way (I believe) is the date is where the SC25 spots start to equal the SC24 spots.  Right now there is a SC25 plaque on the southern hemisphere, and there was a SC25 spot last month I believe.  If this trend continues, we are just a few months away from the cross over period.

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3 hours ago, gozzak said:

The most accurate way (I believe) is the date is where the SC25 spots start to equal the SC24 spots.  Right now there is a SC25 plaque on the southern hemisphere, and there was a SC25 spot last month I believe.  If this trend continues, we are just a few months away from the cross over period.

Thank you for your contribution!  By "spots", you are referring to the magnetic-structures observed in the magnetograms, rather than actual sunspots, yes?  I will proceed to post up the magnetogram maps for the current transition. Afterward, let's discuss further whether you agree with my placing (in Figure 1 above) the Tentative Solar Minimum Nadir (which I interpret you are calling the "cross over period") in Jan/Feb 2020, or if you think it should be projected even further out in time.

Edited by theartist

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The highlighted Carrington Rotations (CR) in Figure 5 are from the SC24/25 transition.  Their respective magnetogram maps are shown in Figure 6.

1847846272_SC2425HighlightedCRs.thumb.jpg.18ec26a0cd823500774697aec91ab249.jpg

Figure 5. Carrington Rotation callouts in the SC24/25 transition.

 

99040462_SC2425magnetogrammaps.thumb.jpg.a03e982a0c20604266f70dea99c330c6.jpg

Figure 6.  Magnetogram maps from the SC23/24 transition.

Edited by theartist

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CR 2224 is only partially complete, and so I plan to update the lower right panel in Figure 6 when it completes.

A high latitude mag-structure is due if the scenario presented in this thread is to hold true.  The solar system may be presenting opportunity for that to happen around 24 November

Edited by theartist

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