Mini-CME 'puff' headed our way this morning.

[theartist]

One can see it in the STEREO-A C2 coronagraph.

I selected the word 'puff' (indicative of lesser scale) instead of 'blast', and the experts may even choose different language after they study it in greater detail.

It appears to me (this is just a cursory theory) that the 'puff' is likely the result of a connection between the new coronal hole (on the southeast side of the disc) arching over and connecting with the old coronal hole (on the west-north side of the disc); then solar gasses, likely trapped underneath the magnetic field connection, were energetically released after sufficient pressure build-up.  This has attributes of a theory I presented in greater detail on the thread titled, Evolution of a "Stealthy CME".

I annotated the overarching magnetic field-lines in the following PFSS imagery, underneath which solar wind gasses (plasma) likely built-up before their energetic release. 

I won't upload the STEREO-A video here, but if one checks it out, they can see two separate solar wind streams (likely from the different coronal holes) appear to merge ('connect') not too long before the energetic release.

The sequence of events are presented in the time-stamped images below:

 

 

Edited October 28, 2019 by theartist
added info and fixed some grammaticals; reduced size of figure

[theartist]

Here is a short sequence of events after the ejection, looking at the Running Difference (RD) coronagraph imagery:

(Possibly some loyal twitter followers will upload a video on their twitter feed. 😀)  🤗

Edited October 25, 2019 by theartist

[theartist]

Here is the X-Ray flux from this morning, showing some disturbance around the mini-CME event:

There very well could have been a solar-radio-burst associated with the Mini-CME, and we do see a ~2-3pnt bump in the F10.7cm recorded at 12UTC 17:00 UTC today; it will be interesting to see if the flux relaxes back down that same magnitude later today (assuming no additional CME's are taking place).

Edited October 25, 2019 by theartist

[theartist]

From the two images below, we can (roughly) ascertain the velocity of the Mini-CME's shockwave front:

 

It appears to have traveled the distance of ~1 Solar Diameter in 105 minutes, thus traveling:  1.392e6 km/(105*60sec) = 221 km/sec.  🤓

Hmmm,  221 km/sec for a CME, regardless of size, seems kind of slow, no? 🤔

1 hour ago, theartist said:

seems kind of slow, no?

Ahhhh, 💡but consider the points of locating that wavefront in the above images may not be in the plane of the imagery (i.e., it could be traveling both to the right and slightly away from, or toward, the direction of STEREO-A), thus the distance between the two points is likely more than 1 Solar Diameter. 😊

Edited October 25, 2019 by theartist

[Marcel de Bont]

I also noticed this eruption on STEREO yesterday but its lackluster speed and the fact that it can hardly be seen on the available SOHO LASCO images means I am not going to report about it. Its effects on Earth should be minimal if it even hits us. No reason to get people's hopes up, these aren't the type of events that are worthy of much attention.

[theartist]

Good morning, Marcel.  From the perspective of general solar science, it is still interesting to some of us out here.  After all, elsewhere on social media (twitter), some scientists were commenting on the stealthy CME that occurred back on Aug 13, which was even slower and non-earth directed. 😊

Thanks for all your support; cheers! 👍

[theartist]

I find the latest turn-of-events, which involved this mini-CME, very interesting on multiple fronts, not the least of which is how the dynamics of the  "Multi-Rotation Persistent Magnetic Structure (CASE 2)" (which has produced the multi-rotation 'old' North-West coronal hole) will be changed, going forward, with the introduction of the new coronal hole in the South-East.  Next rotation, Mercury will be just beyond its perihelion when this structure is earth-facing again; stay tuned.

[Marcel de Bont]

3 uren geleden, theartist zei:

Good morning, Marcel.  From the perspective of general solar science, it is still interesting to some of us out here.  After all, elsewhere on social media (twitter), some scientists were commenting on the stealthy CME that occurred back on Aug 13, which was even slower and non-earth directed. 😊

Thanks for all your support; cheers! 👍

I understand, but most of our visitors are aurora chasers and mentioning any kind of CME usually results in people getting their hopes up only for them to be crushed when nothing happens a few days later. That's why I choose to only report about CMEs that have a decent chance to impact us and likely cause some kind of geomagnetic disturbance. This CME does not tick those boxes. But of course, enthusiasts like yourself can always (and do!) take a look at the data themselves and form their own opinion. That's the entire philosophy behind this website. Learn about space weather, use the available data and make your own predictions and inform yourself. Us manually reporting about significant solar activity and geomagnetic activity is just one of the many services that we offer but not the main point of the website.

[theartist]

Yes, I think I understand, Marcel.  When I mentioned this CME, it was not with the intent of questioning whether your website was somehow deficient in reporting it to the aurora chasers.

I think one of the bigger impacts to the aurora chasers is how this new South-East coronal hole (which I suggest played part in that CME) actually came into being since the time the 'old' coronal magnetic structure was facing STEREO/IMPACT ~six days prior, and continues to feed the solar wind even now to sustained velocities, thus continuing the geomagnetic disturbance that started on Oct. 23. 

I realize the audience over here varies from curious newbies to a few professional solar physicists, and in-between.  I hope you will still allow us to discuss more of the science behind it all over here.   Thank-you, Sir. 🤗

(BTW, I'd rather send you a check, but I'll try the PayPal thing sometime next week and send a small donation to support and 'keep the lights on'. 😙)

[Swanny]

Hi Marcel, not all user of your site are Aurora chaser. I follow the site as I believe the Solar Cycle has a major bearing on the earths weather patterns. Particularly here in Australia.

Great web page and I follow the conversation threads with growing interest. 

[Marcel de Bont]

16 uren geleden, theartist zei:

Yes, I think I understand, Marcel.  When I mentioned this CME, it was not with the intent of questioning whether your website was somehow deficient in reporting it to the aurora chasers.

I think one of the bigger impacts to the aurora chasers is how this new South-East coronal hole (which I suggest played part in that CME) actually came into being since the time the 'old' coronal magnetic structure was facing STEREO/IMPACT ~six days prior, and continues to feed the solar wind even now to sustained velocities, thus continuing the geomagnetic disturbance that started on Oct. 23. 

I realize the audience over here varies from curious newbies to a few professional solar physicists, and in-between.  I hope you will still allow us to discuss more of the science behind it all over here.   Thank-you, Sir. 🤗

(BTW, I'd rather send you a check, but I'll try the PayPal thing sometime next week and send a small donation to support and 'keep the lights on'. 😙)

No worries, didn't at all think you were questioning us! Just thought this was a good moment to explain how we decide whether we report something or not. It's also not feasible for us to write something every single day. At the end of the day, SpaceWeatherLive is a hobby for us that sort of grew to enormous levels.

Yes of course you can discuss anything you like! It is great to see users gathering their own information and even informing others if something space weather related occurs.

Your intent to donate is very much appreciated. It is people like you that keep us online!

6 uren geleden, Swanny zei:

Hi Marcel, not all user of your site are Aurora chaser. I follow the site as I believe the Solar Cycle has a major bearing on the earths weather patterns. Particularly here in Australia.

Great web page and I follow the conversation threads with growing interest. 

Hello Swanny. Welcome! Thank you so much for your comment. I realize there is a wide variety of space weather enthusiasts following us and that is great to see! Glad to see you use SpaceWeatherLive as a resource in a quest to answer your questions.

[northwind-adventurer]

Thank you for the updates all.

It will be interesting to see how (and if) this 'puff' CME interacts with the upcoming coronal hole stream - there has been a few events like this in the past where they actually enhanced auroral conditions. For example in August last year there was a small filament eruption which interacted with a coronal hole stream to cause a G3 storm.  

Edited October 27, 2019 by northwind-adventurer

[Michele]

The wonderful happening is that all is clocked by Planets. This CME is directed to Uran and it is happening in the while that Sun, Moon, Earth and Urano are about along a straight line. It happened to on the middle of August and on July with other congiunctions with  an exceptional situation on 22 July. Check it comparativa with wsa-enlil images.  If you don't have it, ask me. Enlil was the Annunaki of cosmic wind, nice not?

I can report everything but you can make your personal research...it's amazing how Planets "talk" ...

I think that this slow CME will be coinvolved with coronal holes flux increasing its power. I aspect a bigger CME erupting on 3-4  November for another astronomy situation. Plasma density is really Low to.

And I want to tell you that Protons peaks are not a mistake of Ace. Strange that on 8 of August when a nuclear bomb exploded we have no data. But protons peaks where intense the day before and days after.

What is happening?

I have some answers for right questions.

Edited October 28, 2019 by Michele
Mistake

[theartist]

Welcome Michele!  Yes!  I might even have commented on the July CME back then (I'll have to go back and check).

This is groud-breaking research!  It will take a lot of work to assemble it cohesively, in consideration of the caveats.  

There is the Micro, the Macro, and then the Global perspectives as to how Planetary Clocking functions in the cohesive whole of solar system activity, fitting into, and influencing the activity of our star. 

 

[Michele]

In this year and for this incoming Solar minimum with all this CME connected to astronomy congiunctions it's not possible it is casual. It is one year that I am making a deep study. I have a lot of screenshot and thesis abut it. I would like to share.

 

I was surprised about your post on July...we were finding the same way. .  

Edited October 28, 2019 by Michele

[theartist]

 

2 hours ago, Michele said:

I would like to share.

I would love to see your work. 😍 You can message me if you wish to first discuss further, or choose to go ahead and publish here, and let me know if I can assist you with that.

I suspect science-institutions will eventually use neural-network deep learning to model solar system clocking.  The influence of the planets will be 'discovered' and tested through these techniques. 'They' will eventually put additional observational probes to help them along in this 'discovery', and this new-found knowledge will eventually be a foundation in space weather forecast models.  

If we do choose to go forward and help move the collective-conscious forward in this 'discovery', possibly even here on spaceweatherlive, then maybe we can all share in any future prize reward. 😊  True, we may get passed over without going through their peer-reviewed journals...but at least we'll rest knowing we played a part in the 'discovery'.☺️

Thank you for your contributions, Michele! 🚩🇮🇹

 

[Michele]

! CME seems to be bigger than how was recognized. 

It will stroke us with an higher power than how was predicted

Check at link https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

About our topic Artist, yes, we will talk about...i have to organize a lot of material but it's simply. Basically I believe that Mercury, Venus, Moon and Earth congiunctions determinates CME directed to Other Planets in allineation moments (Planet is usually Uran that have a really strange magnetic condition). Other solar events like solar Minimum should be connected to Jupiter and Saturn wich will be in congiunction and opposition to earth next year. Otherwise Magnetic fields of Jupiter, Saturn and Uran are really big and could influence Sun in some condition (when their power is added by a congiunction)

But what is interesting now is that ther is a new prediction for wsa-enlil for next days.

[theartist]

7 hours ago, Michele said:

! CME seems to be bigger than how was recognized. 

It will stroke us with an higher power than how was predicted

You're referring to the future CME, rather than the one directed earthward on Oct. 25, correct?

7 hours ago, Michele said:

Check at link https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

Well, based on this statement, you are evidently referring to the one on Oct. 25.  Thank you for the link.

Before I looked at the model, my theory was that the majority of any effects on earth from that CME have already occurred.  That theory does not change after looking at that model.  (There are 'issues' with such models that I won't go into at this time.  Please reader, do not imply, that my view is all such models need to be thrown away; that is not my intent.)

Earth did receive immediate shortwave electromagnetic signaling during the transpiration of the CME (see X-ray flux figure posted above). But I think the minor disruption in the X-ray flux we have had since then (figure below) is primarily due to the small flaring from the active region that has been coming around the east limb:

I think a similar thing is going on with the elevation in the F10.7cm over the past few days.  As mentioned previously, we did register a positive bump on Oct. 25, but I think the prime reason it is remaining elevated since then is due to what is going on with the minor flaring from the active region coming around the east limb.

30 minutes ago, theartist said:

(There are 'issues' with such models that I won't go into at this time.)

(Those models are good for visualization of 'theories' as to how the solar wind media is going to propagate.  But those models today, based on limited boundary-condition input info, are NOT infallible. They will improve, in time, with with more probe measurements of input boundary conditions, and with greater understanding of the resultant effects of those inputs.)

Edited October 29, 2019 by theartist