Solar Minimum per SORCE SIM

[theartist]

Unfortunately, there is not available a good number of Total Solar Irradiance measurements to historically compare data against, even going back no further than the beginning of the modern space age.  (WHY IS THIS?!!?)  In this thread, we'll look at the breadcrumbs we have, found at LASP Interactive Solar Irradiance Data Center:

(to be continued)

[theartist]

The following two graphs are Total Irradiance Spectrum plots (from the SORCE Solar Spectral Irradiance data).  The first plot is from Dec. 15, 2019 2008 at the SC23/24 Solar Minimum.  The second plot from Oct. 15, 2019 is the latest data available in the current SC24/25 transition.

 

The faint vertical grey line in both of the above plots is situated at ~677nm.  We will evaluate this wavelength specifically, because according to the following chart, it is a Red Light frequency used to reveal the magnetic map at the photosphere:

   (Source of chart.)

 

Here is the plot of the 677nm wavelength time series:

 

 

So I ask you, kind reader, to vote on what the above plot is suggesting to you:

1. We are (obviously) plunging below Dalton Minimum levels, if not into a full-blown Maunder Minimum!😱 (I wonder whether Kitiashvili had peeked at that graph--or similar--before putting out her latest forecast for SC25. 😎)
2. The graph is 'interesting' 🤔; we need to look at some more data.🤓 (But is it is not curious why more solar physicists are not discussing this plot? 😯)
3. The measurement is obviously suspect. 🙄  (The TSI and Solar Spectral Irradiance measurements should have been taken out at the Lagrange Point, rather than in low earth orbit.🙄)

 

Edited October 23, 2019 by theartist
corrected source of chart; corrected incorrect date in second sentence.

[theartist]

The following graph is an update to the previous post of Oct 22.  The data, taken directly from http://lasp.colorado.edu/lisird/data/sorce_ssi_l3/, has been smoothed with a 21day centered-moving-average:

 

In the above graph, SC24 is overlaid on SC23 with the assumption that temporal equivalency between the cycles places the SC24 Solar Minimum Nadir (SMN) in ~72 days. However, note for SC23, the 677.98nm Irradiance turned upward two years before SMN, whereas for SC24, the 677.98nm Irradiance has plunged over the past two years, and it has not yet firmly indicated a turnaround is even at hand.

[theartist]

Hi noobsauce, below is another graph for consideration.  The data, taken directly from http://lasp.colorado.edu/lisird/data/composite_lyman_alpha/, has been smoothed with a 21day centered-moving-average:

 

In the above graph, SC24 is overlaid on SC23 with the assumption that temporal equivalency between the cycles places the SC24 Solar Minimum Nadir (SMN) in just 32 days from now. However, whether the SC24 SMN is 32 days away, 72 days away, or even behind us by 32 days, etc., nonetheless, something to keep in mind is that "Terminator" (or "Onset", "The Step", etc.)* was till more than two years after SC23's SMN.

(*Note, the terms "Terminator", "Onset", or "The Step" are used interchangeably to denote when cycle activity picks up in earnest.  These parameters are discussed in more detail over in the thread titled, "Synoptic Magnetograms; SC24 Minimum Forecasting".)

[cosnow]

On 10/21/2019 at 7:54 AM, theartist said:

So I ask you, kind reader, to vote on what the above plot is suggesting to you:

1. We are (obviously) plunging below Dalton Minimum levels, if not into a full-blown Maunder Minimum!😱 (I wonder whether Kitiashvili had peeked at that graph--or similar--before putting out her latest forecast for SC25. 😎)
2. The graph is 'interesting' 🤔; we need to look at some more data.🤓 (But is it is not curious why more solar physicists are not discussing this plot? 😯)
3. The measurement is obviously suspect. 🙄  (The TSI and Solar Spectral Irradiance measurements should have been taken out at the Lagrange Point, rather than in low earth orbit.🙄)

 

I'm leaning towards #3 for the following reasons:

a) If you review all of the other wavelengths (stepping through at 50 nm increments speeds this up) - you notice many significant trend changes (that don't make sense) after the battery issues between July 2013 and Feb 2014 (during which time SOURCE was completely offline).   There are also apparent (but less significant) shifts in some of the data after power cycling started around May 2011 (after this time source was turned off during the eclipse part of an orbit - which most likely affected calibration).

b) There are some major and abrupt shifts in trends between certain wavelengths - typically the changes between wavelengths (as you step through) are gradual - almost wave like in nature.   To see this review a wavelength of 947.35 nm and compare to 1000.59 nm with the time series option at -> http://lasp.colorado.edu/lisird/data/sorce_ssi_l3/  .  (my only explanation here is the low earth orbit - and my only 'far out' guess at this point is that maybe the data has been affected by some type of absorption band in low earth orbit that affects this range more then others and is increasing with time - possibly some type of absorption bands explain what i'm terming as waves above).

c) There is no other data to compare to - the closet was virgo which as far as I can tell has been offline since 2008.

d) The instrumentation is just old at this point.

So while this data seems like an amazing resource at first (and the only of it's kind ~ eh why is that) - I don't think it can be trusted.

[theartist]

On 12/27/2019 at 4:02 PM, cosnow said:

I'm leaning towards #3 for the following reasons:

a) If you review all of the other wavelengths (stepping through at 50 nm increments speeds this up) - you notice many significant trend changes (that don't make sense) after the battery issues between July 2013 and Feb 2014 (during which time SOURCE was completely offline).   There are also apparent (but less significant) shifts in some of the data after power cycling started around May 2011 (after this time source was turned off during the eclipse part of an orbit - which most likely affected calibration).

b) There are some major and abrupt shifts in trends between certain wavelengths - typically the changes between wavelengths (as you step through) are gradual - almost wave like in nature.   To see this review a wavelength of 947.35 nm and compare to 1000.59 nm with the time series option at -> http://lasp.colorado.edu/lisird/data/sorce_ssi_l3/  .  (my only explanation here is the low earth orbit - and my only 'far out' guess at this point is that maybe the data has been affected by some type of absorption band in low earth orbit that affects this range more then others and is increasing with time - possibly some type of absorption bands explain what i'm terming as waves above).

c) There is no other data to compare to - the closet was virgo which as far as I can tell has been offline since 2008.

d) The instrumentation is just old at this point.

So while this data seems like an amazing resource at first (and the only of it's kind ~ eh why is that) - I don't think it can be trusted.

Great post! Thanks for taking the time to investigate, collect your thoughts, and post your findings.

[cosnow]

Thanks TheArtist!   I’ve definitely learned a lot reading your posts - so happy to be able to add to the discussion.  
 

I also just noticed the following- 

http://lasp.colorado.edu/home/sorce/2019/07/15/sorce-operations-extended-to-january-2020/

Looks like only a few more days to review any data from source.... after this only ground based irradiance data will be available for the foreseeable future (although hope I’m wrong on that) 
 

Quote

SORCE Operations Extended to January 2020

July 15

Great news for the SORCE mission! After a Key Decision Point (KDP) Meeting regarding SORCE’s Phase F, NASA Headquarters has decided to extend SORCE operations into January 2020. 

SORCE has had battery issues for years and had some communication outages in April 2019. This later anomaly triggered NASA HQ to accelerate the SORCE decommissioning planning and to hold the SORCE KDP-F meeting on July 11, 2019. The objective for this meeting was to evaluate the SORCE decommissioning plan, schedule, and budget for mission close-out and decide between a mid July 2019 passivation (turn-off) or the original January 2020 passivation date.
The final decision to stay with January 2020 passivation was based on SORCE’s compelling science, than the potential battery and other spacecraft risks, which might force an early passivation. The current plan for SORCE is to continue operations until January 15, 2020, and SORCE Phase F will start the day after passivation and go through September 2020 to produce and archive the final data products.

Edited December 29, 2019 by cosnow

[theartist]

Wow.  I don't want to get too political here, but...I can understand the individual scientists having their own pet project to protect their own funding, but....but hopefully, the relevant parties at NASA can prioritize real needs in the satellite arena?  For example, we know DSCOVR has been on the fritz, so then what if the aging ACE goes belly-up?  And the STEREO mission was a great concept, but the loss of STEREO-B was a big blow, and it hasn't been replaced yet.  And then, what if SDO were to suddenly go belly-up?  That thing is HUGELY beneficial...so do we have a replacement waiting in the wings ready-to-go?   (These opinions are just those of an impartial citizen scientist.)

And then lastly, (sigh), TSI and Spectral Irradiance Measurement.  (sigh)    All the while, the never-ending climate-change arguments drone on.  (sigh)  How long have they known about issues there?  And VIRGO was out at the LaGrange Point, right?  So why did they put SORCE back in earth's atmosphere for the critical measurement?  And then, how many satellite launches were lost (one or two, at least, right?  GLORY mission?) when trying to send up more instrumentation?