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theartist

Lyman-Alpha in Solar Minimum

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The Composite Solar Lyman-alpha, Time Series has recently manifest two localized breakout signals:

1362959176_CSL-ABreakoutsignals.thumb.png.a2a0bbc076618209356b5a337fac254e.png

 

We await an update of data from the Lyman-alpha Model Solar Spectral Irradiance, Time Series, but it, as yet, does not reveal the second breakout signal:

283950209_L-AModelSolarSITimeSeries.thumb.png.e77c6376cc18d404d6f93efd89419871.png

 

The SORCE SOLSTICE High-Res Solar Spectral Irradiance, Time Series (plotted at 121.5625nm, i.e., close to Lyman-Alpha) is not displaying the breakout signals (figure below).  Nonetheless, all three are showing signs of 'hammering-out-a-bottom', as described in the next figure:

288043398_Descriptionofhammeringbottom.thumb.png.fcf0bcf5463f2501d174efff0b8224a3.png

 

The Solar Lyman-Alpha is displaying a flattening-out of the ringdown's cyclical lows (i.e., during the descending phase of a large multi-month 'magnetic structure cycle').  The Solar Lyman-Alpha is, in essence, now 'hammering-out-the-bottom', an indication that the Solar Minimum Nadir is in the vicinity; we are close to the Nadir.

The Lyman-Alpha is at Nadir levels, but until sunspots return, the Lyman-Alpha will just remain down here on the floor, at these levels, as the Nadir point moves further out in time (to the right on the graph).

The breakout signals are a possible sign that sunspots will be returning (relatively soon?).  At a minimum, they (maybe?) indicate that coronal bright points are becoming more numerous and/or more energetic.

Edited by theartist

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On 9/21/2019 at 7:43 PM, theartist said:

The Composite Solar Lyman-alpha, Time Series has recently manifest two localized breakout signals:

Hold on.  The second recent large spike (labeled "True 'Breakout'?" in the first graph above), has now gone missing.  Previously we witnessed several days of the Composite Solar Lyman-alpha, Time Series showing levels above 0.0061 W/m^2, but those values have now been changed(?) to reflect levels below 0.0060 W/m^2; the second 'breakout' spike is now mysteriously gone (next figure):

2068790872_CompSolarL-Aon2019-09-26at3_21_46PM.thumb.png.5c4d83471760b3f82fca65f9260621d0.png

 

The Lyman-alpha Model Solar Spectral Irradiance, Time Series had yet not shown the second 'breakout spike' (second graph above), but it is reflected in the latest data (below):423942754_L-AmodelSSI2019-09-26at3_40_22PM.thumb.png.fadf0d8ad16bb91b12110067ad5c36f0.png

But will it too be changed (redacted?) in the future?

 

 

Edited by theartist

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From what I can derive, those spikes are probably erroneous. That was a near instantaneous jump/fallback without physical basis.

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Hi Philip, welcome to the forum.

On 9/27/2019 at 9:59 AM, Philip said:

That was a near instantaneous jump/fallback without physical basis.

Although it was indeed a rapid "jump" in elevation, nonetheless, the elevated values lasted several days, so it was not, as you say, "a near instantaneous fallback".  

Unless one has some physical concrete explanation for an 'error', it would be premature to say these spikes have "no physical basis", regardless of how many days the values remained elevated (e.g., witness the first two-day 'spike' on July 31-Aug 1 that has not been removed from the data).  

As an example of a potential explanation for these spikes, it is a valid question as to whether recurring 'bright points' (in the corona), or something else, could be a reason for the measured elevation reflected in the data, besides 'instrument error'.

Do you find it even more interesting now that elevated data-points have again shown up in the most recent data? (See next figure.)

337197795_ScreenShot2019-09-27at7_46_50PM.thumb.png.ff482c14927885ddcb0f2137c5a785df.png 

 

 

Edited by theartist

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On 9/27/2019 at 7:50 PM, theartist said:

or "something else"

For instance, could the recent elevation in the Lyman-Alpha be due to an increase in the explosions in the transition region that are smaller than flares (but occur more often)? If so, maybe that would provide an important puzzle piece heralding the Solar Minimum (Nadir).

Additionally, is it possible that an elevation in the Lyman-Alpha could be coming from other sources besides our sun (e.g., Early Universe is Glowing with Lyman-alpha Emission)?

Edited by theartist

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On 9/21/2019 at 7:43 PM, theartist said:

The Solar Lyman-Alpha is, in essence, now 'hammering-out-the-bottom', an indication that the Solar Minimum Nadir is in the vicinity; we are close to the Nadir.

Nope; lately, the Lyman-Alpha has been piercing through the 'line of lows':

713818875_L-Apiercingthelineoflows.thumb.jpg.ff4946c01ad1677166d34a57ab883a25.jpg

😶

 

Edited by theartist

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