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F10.7cm Solar Minimum Analysis

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1 hour ago, Covert Goat said:

Too bad we won’t find out until the ESA/NASA Solar Orbiter arrives

Reading the description you linked, it says:

The objective of the mission is to perform close-up, high-resolution studies of the Sun and its inner heliosphere. The new understanding will help answer these questions:

  • How and where do the solar wind plasma and magnetic field originate in the corona?
  • How do solar transients drive heliospheric variability?
  • How do solar eruptions produce energetic particle radiation that fills the heliosphere?
  • How does the solar dynamo work and drive connections between the Sun and the heliosphere?

The figure I linked showing the polar X-ray jets was from a paper highlighting the use of the Hinode satellite to answer those questions, too.🤓

On 10/3/2019 at 7:23 PM, Covert Goat said:

I assume this is breaking all current models?

This solar minimum is turning out to be deeper than what I initially thought it was (based on my observation of the Bremen Composite months ago).  The Lyman-Alpha Composite has not been at its current levels--for such a sustained period of time--since its inception.  If this minimum 'double dips', in order that the 'Adjusted Flux rule' (I cited earlier in this thread 😊) is not violated, then we very well may be headed into a very weak solar cycle, at the NASA/Kitiashvili prediction levels (which is discussed in the thread titled,  Solar Cycle 25 Predictions/Forecasts by 1. 'The Panel' & 2. NASA).

Edited by theartist

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On 10/5/2019 at 5:29 AM, theartist said:

If this minimum 'double dips', in order that the 'Adjusted Flux rule' (I cited earlier in this thread 😊) is not violated,

In order to 'double dip', the Adjusted F10.7cm Flux will need to sustain daily values in the 65-66 range (or lower), as that is what was observed in Nov. 2018 when the current low for this solar minimum transition was established:

Nov 2018 F10.6.png

 

It appeared the currently 'bald sun' was going to relax back to those '66 levels' a couple of days ago at the end of 10-10-19; and yet, the next day there was almost a 2-point pop back up into the 68's:

1550218039_10-11F10.7.thumb.png.1215ad356a9e40a650a387f9b3a547d1.png

Could yesterday's bump be attributable to something we can observe over at SDO/helioviewer.org? For example, was it due to the polar jets and a large prominence that danced on the NE limb for a day (figure below)?

10-11-19.thumb.jpg.d41b8e62a3425472af4c834b4a949d02.jpg

If so, even without sunspots, are the polar crown filaments/prominences too numerous now, such that we will not see the 'double dip' in the F10.7cm?  It is hard to say...for were we not previously seeing similar activity (figure below) on the solar disc back during the time period when the low in the Adjusted F10.7cm Fluwas established?

11-28-18.thumb.jpg.14d70179263653c09477d3d1515ec501.jpg

 

Edited by theartist
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I believe there may have been a stealth CME last night. Looks like it’s relaxed again, most of the active regions shifted to coronal holes. Very weird.

Edited by Covert Goat
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On 10/14/2019 at 1:45 PM, Covert Goat said:

I believe there may have been a stealth CME last night.

Did you read the thread titled,  Evolution of a "Stealthy CME"?  If you apply that theory to the stealthy CME(s) on Oct 13-15 beyond the west limb, you may glean insight that grad students and post-docs are trying to figure out.

 

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On 10/3/2019 at 1:19 AM, theartist said:

"The Solar Minimum Nadir in a solar cycle's solar minimum period has always occurred within 3 months of the minimum value of the monthly average of Adjusted F10.7cm."

Key point in the above statement is "monthly average" rather than the 'absolute low'; for example, witness where the the 'absolute low' of the Adjusted Flux occurred, relative to Solar Minimum, in the SC 18/19 transition:

F10.7cm absolute low.jpg

 

 

Today a new low in the Adjusted Flux was reached for the SC 24/25 transition:

238795019_ScreenShot2019-10-20at4_55_57PM.thumb.jpg.38e36477a7454d958fd6e746ee124742.jpg

Edited by theartist

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Given the ratio of SC24 polarity spots to SC25 polarity spots, I think it’s safe to say we have not reached solar minimum yet. That probably happens during the first half of 2020...just a guess though.

Edited by Philip
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7 hours ago, Philip said:

just a guess though

But an educated guess, nonetheless. 😊  The 'Scenario C' plot in the second post to this thread shows one plausible scenario, putting the Solar Minimum (Nadir) near the beginning of 2020. The fascinating thing about that plot is how well it lines up ~11 years later, to the month, with the SC 23/24 minimum transition. 

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We have a 'tiny-tim' pore visiting us on the disc today:

1964340899_tinytimtoday.thumb.jpg.3554bf6ff828370feac55462e8a65129.jpg

Whether or not it remains long enough to be counted, the solar flux continues onward to new lows:

1911303690_f107.thumb.jpg.c14adb04a3d3b75a69591840aa51693d.jpg.

 

UPDATE:  Oct. 21, 2019, the day the solar flux plunged😱:

260150394_oct21f107.thumb.jpg.41f49cacbfdc14d48d42891a1bd5862c.jpg

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11 hours ago, theartist said:

We have a 'tiny-tim' pore visiting us on the disc today:

1964340899_tinytimtoday.thumb.jpg.3554bf6ff828370feac55462e8a65129.jpg

Whether or not it remains long enough to be counted, the solar flux continues onward to new lows:

1911303690_f107.thumb.jpg.c14adb04a3d3b75a69591840aa51693d.jpg.

 

UPDATE:  Oct. 21, 2019, the day the solar flux plunged😱:

260150394_oct21f107.thumb.jpg.41f49cacbfdc14d48d42891a1bd5862c.jpg

We are approaching the 26th of October and Venus is about to get between Jupiter and the sun, which will cause sunspots, unless the solar minimum is so deep that it does not emit actual sunspots. Around 3.november Mercur will be able to create sunspots when it comes between Earth and the Sun. This possible sunspots will be quite low on the solar disc I believe. Time will show :) 

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2 hours ago, The Norwegian said:

We are approaching the 26th of October and Venus is about to get between Jupiter and the sun, which will cause sunspots, unless the solar minimum is so deep that it does not emit actual sunspots. Around 3.november Mercur will be able to create sunspots when it comes between Earth and the Sun. This possible sunspots will be quite low on the solar disc I believe. Time will show :) 

Excellent!  Did you compare with the setup in late Oct 2008, and its resultant production:

1898269063_Oct-Nov2008spots.thumb.jpg.e3e46ce8ad00c979d29422a8c6b4da34.jpg (image link).

 

Well done!  Excellent specimen!  We are sticking a flag right here, folks!  🚩 🇳🇴

 

Edited by theartist
added the flag of Norway.

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Nov. 1, 2008, Mercur is in perfect line between Venus and the Sun. During the solar minimum, it looks like it needs a minimum of 2 planets together to create sunspots.

 

image.thumb.png.83b9a73a1b87bdd14db18fdd352ccb80.png

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On 10/22/2019 at 3:54 AM, The Norwegian said:

Around 3.november Mercur will be able to create sunspots when it comes between Earth and the Sun. This possible sunspots will be quite low on the solar disc I believe. Time will show :)

Congratulations, my friend. You called it. May I be the first to shake your hand?  Here it is, and an SC25 spot at that!

477446644_SC25spot.thumb.jpg.a8b8d695da9d8ea556ebeb77f441f972.jpg

 

Should it grow no bigger than this little pore in this very deep solar minimum, I nonetheless think you "put it over the fence" (an American baseball reference to hitting a home-run)!

 

 

Edited by theartist

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4 hours ago, theartist said:

Congratulations, my friend. You called it. May I be the first to shake your hand?  Here it is, and an SC25 spot at that!

477446644_SC25spot.thumb.jpg.a8b8d695da9d8ea556ebeb77f441f972.jpg

 

Should it grow no bigger than this little pore in this very deep solar minimum, I nonetheless think you "put it over the fence" (an American baseball reference to hitting a home-run)!

 

 

Thank you so much to my observant friend "Over there". Mercur's orbit is lowest in relation to Earth at this time of year and highest in February / March. When Mercur passes between Earth and the Sun around February 17, 2020, we will have new sunspots belonging to SC25, but this time high north on the solar disk. Around December 28, Venus will come between Earth and the sun, which will form distinct sunspots as they are in the opposite side of Jupiter and benefit from the "tidal effect" of Jupiter. I bet 2019 will be one year with over 280 days without sunspots. 2020 will have not less that 265-270 spotless days :) 

 

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Some new SC24 spots popped up today near the equator:

684557506_nov2.thumb.jpg.94b620b75196a6704681557f60f13f51.jpg

Interestingly, these manifest relatively quickly, without a prior sustained period of bright-point manifestation higher in the corona.  

 

On 11/1/2019 at 12:58 AM, The Norwegian said:

I bet 2019 will be one year with over 280 days without sunspots. 2020 will have not less that 265-270 spotless days :)

We are coming to agreement, though you are ahead of me in coming to a firm conclusion.  Please weigh-in over on the forecast thread, from time-to-time, should you choose.  I consider it more as us arriving at common understanding, rather than a consensus.  

For reference, today:

1114131132_nov2positions.thumb.jpg.7df019efbc3362a449eabef80665c29a.jpg

Edited by theartist

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2751 Sunspot is quite interesting as it is probably due to tidal effect from Jupiter. As the moon creates tide on both the lunar and opposite sides simultaneously, in the same way I believe the effect that creates sunspots can occur on the back of the sun at the same time. But again, this is only speculation.

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1.  Curious whether you are familiar with the term, "homeostasis", or the phrase, "regression-to-the-mean", and how they can be applied to solar cycle characteristics, and the current cycle forecast in particular?

2.  The accretion of galactic matter (i.e., GCR) is 'fuel' feeding the solar fusion plant; cyclical heliospheric weakness eventually results in more galactic matter going into the reactor furnace.

3. Spectral indicators (e.g., the Lyman-Alpha) and optical observations (e.g., sunspot spotless days) indicate this solar minimum phase of the cycle (i.e., SC24/25 transition) is weaker than the previous one (i.e., SC23/24).  Will we thus eventually see the neutron monitor activity [indicative of Galactic Cosmic 'Rays' (GCR)] reach new highs through the SC24/25 transition?

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As I've said before, my knowledge is at "hobby Level". That said, I understand what you're saying, I believe. Whether GCR affects the sun directly is an interesting thought. What we do know is that GCR is increasing by the sun's lower activity with subsequent cloud formation in the earth's atmosphere. Some also believe that volcanoes are affected by increasing GCR. When little Mercury appears to be able to influence the formation of sunspots on our gigantic star, it should not be excluded that the sun can also be affected by an increase in GCR. If I didn't misunderstand you?

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11 hours ago, The Norwegian said:

Whether GCR affects the sun directly is an interesting thought.

Yes, a theory on the bigger picture of cosmological consequences.  (We've entertained this type of speculation in the thread titled, Heliosphere Bubble Resonation.)

11 hours ago, The Norwegian said:

What we do know is that GCR is increasing by the sun's lower activity with subsequent cloud formation in the earth's atmosphere. Some also believe that volcanoes are affected by increasing GCR. 

We do know GCR modulation in the heliosphere is proportional to solar activity (e.g.,  Cosmic Rays vs. Solar Minimum) as determined through both satellite and ground-based measurements.  In turn, a large amount of cosmic ray impingement at earth's surface is heavily modulated by earth's atmosphere; consequently, to make a claim that volcano activity is directly affected by such heavily modulated CR activity is, I think, a highly speculative theory.  Cloud formation from GCR has also been theorized, but I don't think it has been scientifically shown, conclusively, as to how much cloud-forming effect that GCR actually have at cloud-forming altitudes.

 

Edited by theartist
Added reference to the 'HBR' thread.
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4 hours ago, theartist said:

 

Yes, a theory on the bigger picture of cosmological consequences.  (We've entertained this type of speculation in the thread titled, Heliosphere Bubble Resonation.)

We do know GCR modulation in the heliosphere is proportional to solar activity (e.g.,  Cosmic Rays vs. Solar Minimum) as determined through both satellite and ground-based measurements.  In turn, a large amount of cosmic ray impingement at earth's surface is heavily modulated by earth's atmosphere; consequently, to make a claim that volcano activity is directly affected by such heavily modulated CR activity is, I think, a highly speculative theory.  Cloud formation from GCR has also been theorized, but I don't think it has been scientifically shown, conclusively, as to how much cloud-forming effect that GCR actually have at cloud-forming altitudes.

 

English language is not my language, so please keep that in mind :) The theory of cloud formation due to GCR is as follows: During solar maximum, the electromagnetic radiation from the sun compresses Earths own magnetic field and this makes it stronger. While during solar minimum and weak electromagnetic radiation from the sun, the earth's own magnetic field floats outwards thus opening up for more penetration of the GCR. GCR collides with small particles in the atmosphere which in turn creates ionized particles, so-called aerosols, which are particles who water vapor react with, and create water droplets, ie clouds. Henrik Svensmark has worked with this theory in allmost 20 years. See link att below if you want to find out more. I have followed H.S`s work since 2010 and its no doubt. Sun, GCR and cloud formation is linked togheter. Regards volcanoes I have not got into this. But have registered that some claim this.

https://principia-scientific.org/top-astrophysicist-warns-of-cosmic-rays-climate-impact/

Picture below relates to what happened during an CME. This is from "The Cloud Mystery"

 

Bilderesultat for the cloud mystery

 

 

Edited by The Norwegian
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I'm aware of the Svensmark theory, but it is not without uncertainty; for example, here is countering research from Sloan and Wolfendale: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=Sloan+and+Wolfendale&btnG=, and their related Scientific American article,  "Cosmic Rays Not Causing Climate Change".

That said, I'm not pleading a strong case here on climatic effects, one way or another. 

2 hours ago, The Norwegian said:

During solar maximum, the electromagnetic radiation from the sun compresses Earths own magnetic field and this makes it stronger.

To clarify, you are referring to the magnetosphere magnetic field.  Here are order-of-magnitude magnetic field strength considerations:

  • 30,000-60,000 nT measured at different places on earth's surface;
  • Peak +/- 100 nT fluctuations measured by GOES satellite within earth's magnetosphere;
  • Typical daily variations of magnetosphere field strength are about 25 nanoteslas (nT);
  • +/- 10-20 nT fluctuations in the solar wind measured at L1.

References: 1. Earth's magnetic field, Real-time solar wind data, and GOES-14 data:

g14_summary_latest14days.thumb.jpg.270bae38b3dc8fd8eb1aa1f934369555.jpg

 

Edited by theartist
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  • Solar photosphere average:    ~100,000 nT (i.e., 1 Gauss)...................1 G
  • Sunspots:         200,000,000-400,000,000 nT..................................2,000-4,000 G
  • Active Regions/plages:  10,000,000-30,000,000 nT..........................100-300 G
  • Pores:                                    100,000,000 nT .........................................1,000 G
  • The quiet sun and coronal holes:  ~ 10,000-50,000 nT.......................0.1-0.5G
  • Flare Coronal Loops:  as high as 35,000,000 nT at 25,000,000 meters above the solar limb .... 350 G at 0.036 solar radii
  • Heliosphere 'boundary' out at ~122 AU:  0.2-0.4 nT.....................0.000002-0.000004 G
  • 30,000-60,000 nT measured at different places on earth's surface;
  • Peak +/- 100 nT fluctuations measured by GOES satellite within earth's magnetosphere;
  • Typical daily variations of magnetosphere field strength are about 25 nanoteslas (nT);
  • +/- 10-20 nT fluctuations in the solar wind measured at L1.

Additional References:  "Solar Magnetic Field""The Sun's Magnetic Field""Mapping the Magnetic Field of Flare Coronal Loops", "The confounding magnetic readings of Voyager 1"

Edited by theartist

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