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theartist

F10.7cm Solar Minimum Analysis

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Source of Raw Data for the following graphs. [Clicking on the graphs may provide a sharper image.]

2067372225_F10.7SC2324smoothed.thumb.png.bc62ba14c0f0969238e8cda48699e0f5.png1117061032_F10.7SC2425smoothedadjcorrection.thumb.png.bcb0061a274a124d38b5f1126cc1797e.png

If the adjusted_flux goes below the 'line of lows' after the Crossover (to occur on ~10/1/2019), then the 'Bremen Metric' will most likely be violated.  Conversely, if the adjusted_flux does not go below the 'line of lows' by mid-November, then the 'Bremen Metric' will most likely be confirmed.  (Note, the 'Bremen Metric' is discussed in this thread and this thread.)

 

Edited by theartist
Corrected graph to read, "adjusted flux".

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Presented below are two potential F10.7cm scenarios for the remaining SC 24/25 minimum period.

In Scenario (A), the 'Bremen Metric' is not violated, and 'Breakout' occurs by early 2020.  Scenario (A) shown (for the F10.7cm) is comparable to Scenario (A) shown in this thread (for the Mg II Composite).

416237437_F10.7SC2425ScenarioA.thumb.png.a8603d1fdf7204dd59b23af1ca68eee4.png

 

Scenario (C) is an example case of the 'The Panel' prediction (discussed in this thread).  Note the projected F10.7cm in Scenario (C) is very similar to what actually occurred eleven years ago for SC 23/24. The Tentative Solar Minimum in this scenario occurs at a date earlier than shown for Scenario (B) in this thread.2108355856_F10.7SC2425ScenarioC.thumb.png.f92891332ad1e412311c3e3dd152e2ff.png

Edited by theartist
Fixed location of solar minimum on Scenario (C) (to match SC23/24).

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What follows is an inspection of all the solar minimum periods since inception of the F10.7cm.

First, we plot the raw data for all cycles:1342703614_F10.7cmraw.thumb.png.ffeac43efd3510dc8a69f0402fdc213c.png

The next plot is all of the data after simple smoothing.946071623_F10.7cmsmoothed.thumb.png.6cff92d2db5bd8150f333286675d3c56.png

 

The plots that follow are a three-year window of each solar cycle’s minimum period; both raw data and smoothed data are plotted for each cycle.

1096942287_F10.7SC1819raw.thumb.png.dcdc5fa4fadd2aa703d1a40e9ac46dc0.png134086422_F10.7SC1819smoothed.thumb.png.18b94d59af1a083b5a9c73c8de005c8c.png

231099059_F10.7SC1920raw.thumb.png.f2b21b8be7c3dcb968733f861b379553.png474191113_F10.7SC1920smoothed.thumb.png.94f6f0013de32d6253801a841200ebfc.png

767752965_F10.7SC2021raw.thumb.png.bb60b0722f5dcc735ae621c70a152649.png728799246_F10.7SC2021smoothed.thumb.png.4b43a6d492b004510493150235ffa001.png

1772130038_F10.7SC2122raw.thumb.png.0b46827f7a6f07c55d6c9af6fe72b84d.png1748094672_F10.7SC2122smoothed.thumb.png.a1bf4d640c16c0d2c070e24df4b2b475.png

1800577070_F10.7SC2223raw.thumb.png.b6ddb72eb7954346008e82d201ecf298.png187730999_F10.7SC2223smoothed.thumb.png.c0eb92855792fe93127964f3f5bf44d2.png

1037941862_F10.7SC2324raw.thumb.png.cc34ef49c0381ccbd27caca011be99a9.png422724368_F10.7SC2324smoothedx.thumb.png.97ba2a32f2666342240c41847d675068.png

13475805_F10.7SC2425rawx.thumb.png.858b179510c11357f20a215978c882dc.png2286465_F10.7SC2425smoothedx.thumb.png.c1270164457a338e80e20db705721d23.png

 

It is quite apparent from the graphs that SC23/24, and the beginnings of SC24/25, are dramatically lower in 10.7cm Flux than the earlier cycles.

If the 'Bremen Metric' holds up, and 'Breakout' occurs in or before early 2020, then the SC 24/25 minimum period will have been more 'energetic' (i.e., registering more microwave radio energy), on average, than the SC 23/24 period.  Conversely, if the 'Bremen Metric' breaks down, the SC 24/25 minimum period could eventually be less 'energetic', on average overall, than the SC 23/24 period.  We should have a pretty good idea, either way, within 3-4 months from now.

Edited by theartist

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