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theartist

Bremen Composite Analysis

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This living document provides up-to-date analysis of the Bremen Composite MG II Index data.

Major Conclusions:

  • 'Breakout Signal' to occur WITHIN 8.5-MONTHS after the 'Minimum Period Spike'
    • Based on historical precedent of previous three minimum periods.
    • 'Minimum Period Spike' for SC24/25 occurred on 4/11/19.
    • 'Breakout Signal' for SC24/25 to occur by 1/1/20.

 

  • SC25 'Activity Magnitude' to be greater than SC24.
    • Based on review of 'Minimum Period 12-month window'.

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'Breakout Signal' is when a spike magnitude clears the 'Minimum Period Spike'

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545960007_ScreenShot2019-07-25at8_31_34AM.thumb.png.902da4142fc69163652417fce7e0ac7f.png

1373008378_ScreenShot2019-07-25at8_27_48AM.thumb.png.465ad3f0929a76616b989b28eefe94e9.png

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1794338102_ScreenShot2019-07-25at8_59_16AM.thumb.png.e76533c342754f74e34760a6e3c1987d.png

2106321625_ScreenShot2019-07-25at9_15_51AM.thumb.png.20acab1bafc20452cf44a72a17e27918.png

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1663311895_ScreenShot2019-07-25at9_31_47AM.thumb.png.f95cd831867e38a66c6a94700312bad6.png

 

478958321_ScreenShot2019-07-25at9_38_05AM.thumb.png.95ba0fcad194c78e7384c3cf170be2a6.png

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273716044_ScreenShot2019-07-25at9_52_20AM.thumb.png.773a118dfb8fd96b2d44664d5a21a229.png

*The Tentative Solar Minimum is currently set in the January-February time period, per the "Bremen Metric" discussed in the thread titled  Solar Cycle 25 has already "started".

Edited by theartist

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We now look at the minimum periods a little closer in the following figures, by stepping back, comparing 42-month windows containing the cycle's minimum periods.  A line is drawn in the months in which "Solar Minimum" occurred.  Notice the duration of time that the energy levels dwelt below 0.151 magnitude.

760130923_SC2122.thumb.png.a7721d4633eb18cefbf6a120831c411f.png1237101473_SC2223.thumb.png.ebe6a798bd9a4650cf01bc631bdd2e0b.png1818567545_SC2324.thumb.png.f05e7f47559db386f2c5765f7799a6ce.png419595934_SC2425.thumb.png.19e77230594dbeb0b3c49b8da9bc0876.png

 

If we have a "breakout" by early 2020, and proceed 'up' into Solar Cycle 25 thereafter, then I conjecture that SC25 will be greater in magnitude than SC24, because the duration of the SC24/25 minimum period will have been shorter, and its overall magnitude (per the Bremen Composite Magnesium II data) will have been greater than that of the SC23/24 minimum period.

However, if the "Bremen Metric" SC25 start forecast breaks down, and we instead have another year (or more) of solar minimum tacked onto the current minimum period......then.....who knows?  Would a Maunder Minimum be on the way??😱  After all, remember some noted solar physicists suggested there may be no sunspots by 2016 (which may have been the spark that lit the fire under the GSM furor)?

 "Say Goodbye to Sunspots?"
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2010/09/say-goodbye-sunspots

Edited by theartist
grammaticals/format

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The 42-month window containing the solar minimum period was replotted above for solar each cycle, using a common vertical-axis scale.  The red curve shows the MG II Index timeseries twice-smoothed: first with a 114-day moving-window-average (i.e., 3x the solar rotation period at the poles), followed with a 73-day moving-window-average (i.e., 3x a solar rotation period).  Dates of Solar Minimum were taken from the List of solar cycles.  The circled green areas are where both peaks and troughs of successive cycles, within the raw data, were less-than or equal-to 0.150.

 

Edited by theartist
formatting

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Presented below are two potential scenarios for the remaining SC 24/25 minimum period.

In Scenario (A), the 'Bremen Metric' (discussed in this thread) is not violated, and 'Breakout' (discussed above) occurs by early 2020.390649369_Scenario(A)SC2425.thumb.png.9ef61bebe6ca34b6fc5f755ffcd3aa7d.png

Scenario (B) is an example case of the 'The Panel' prediction (discussed in this thread).1961995179_Scenario(B)SC2425.thumb.png.f67c1e09c23295afab980ecc6c9dbe7c.png

Edited by theartist

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