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theartist

Stochastic influence on solar cycle activity: planetary clocking?

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Plotted below are two solar cycles that meet The Panel's SC25 Prediction/Forecast.

421180540_ScreenShot2019-07-16at2_48_03PM.thumb.png.a4ac2dfd7952ad998a2471677a27a2b3.png

Which cycle appears to be more 'interesting' from the perspective of potential space-weather consequences?

Do we readily elicit a response to the question if we plot them again as the 'monthly-mean' instead of 'smoothed' (below)?

107788825_ScreenShot2019-07-16at3_00_29PM.thumb.png.abd75634cd0fdddd0620ac6e9c4e4316.png

The following two figures describe the planetary position at the 'Start' of SC14:

1679690092_ScreenShot2019-07-16at3_12_53PM.thumb.png.b4cc420bb01da3bbb6090f35cd6f784a.png

1496468407_ScreenShot2019-07-16at3_13_48PM.thumb.png.5098bc6c515414fbbb1ae1bcd164acbe.png

The following figure describes the planetary position at the 'Start' of SC24:

562153726_ScreenShot2019-07-16at3_22_14PM.thumb.png.80cec5e6b049e6bc245576a4db33e88e.png

The following figure describes the planetary position at the Tentative 'Start' (i.e., Jan 2019) of SC25:

242840993_ScreenShot2019-07-16at3_27_04PM.thumb.png.fc7580f6dd86b5b09a7c7816f8776daf.png

Food for thought?

Edited by theartist

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From Extract of a Letter from Prof. R. Wolf, of Zurich, to Mr. Carrington, dated Jan. 12, 1859:

508562287_ScreenShot2019-07-17at3_07_53AM.thumb.png.0f331059ae8447979a613d1b6cc3fdbb.png,

Well, maybe it is a little (a lot?) more complicated than that, but we have since had K. Birkeland, the findings of I. Langmuir, the theories of H. Alfvén and the development of supercomputers.  Maybe it is time the concept of 'planetary clocking' influencing solar activity warrants considerably more attention?

 

Edited by theartist

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One theory (preliminary) is that the gas giants can induce solar activity via connection with the sun.  On July 8, 2019 (discussed above), Uranus 'pulled' a CME (and/or, the Sun targeted Uranus with its pent up energy), as a 'clear and open path' to Uranus was available (and Uranus has now cleared Neptune's sapping influence).

We now examine the planetary positions during the "unexpected, surprising" (per various online accounts) solar activity in the fall of 2017.  We see, in the figure below, this solar activity was sufficient to modulate GCRs:

onlinequery_cgi.gif.a0ee126bfff7b52d71e2aec764e1b2d3.gif

This modulation started in mid-July 2017, and became most acute in September 2017 (figure below):

1990259567_onlinequeryzoom.gif.f348f38cfd2227d624cefc7f02a16eda.gif

We first review the space weather activity for the months of Apr-Dec, 2017.

37684330_ScreenShot2019-07-25at1_57_44PM.thumb.png.8b0f894e03e451f654d593f478439fdf.pngnumber-of-c-m-and-x-clas-8.thumb.jpeg.29b04e9bfd743e84f14e91e30946e251.jpegkp-index-for-april-2017.thumb.jpeg.f54b7029b4fbd32989bb017448c2ea31.jpeg

610272164_ScreenShot2019-07-25at2_00_41PM.thumb.png.475555ce29060a0b3afc9683f3b1d969.pngnumber-of-c-m-and-x-clas-2.thumb.png.f1d3a3e217b6c03ae192e95a80c1c2c2.pngkp-index-for-may-2017.thumb.jpeg.b6b3117afb94e688c16a8402bfd0b202.jpeg

184777682_ScreenShot2019-07-25at1_19_20PM.thumb.png.8d3f2df9722dc1ae6cb2307a815205fd.pngnumber-of-c-m-and-x-clas-2.thumb.jpeg.f948c1b8b5a6a1bdf7c0aabb28ebf127.jpegkp-index-for-june-2017.thumb.jpeg.18f773f3a671af1fb85b274fc2a4760c.jpeg

1029301300_ScreenShot2019-07-25at1_21_10PM.thumb.png.cd40d075fedb78c48689b28490011225.pngnumber-of-c-m-and-x-clas.thumb.png.6927e0ce8b2e12951a2fc103fcef0b8d.pngkp-index-for-july-2017.thumb.jpeg.6c8cd54f8d0ea42e9fe1e88b358bc46d.jpeg

1786059375_ScreenShot2019-07-25at1_24_47PM.thumb.png.cd03416661056ad0ef737f373a072e12.pngnumber-of-c-m-and-x-clas-3.thumb.jpeg.483f72d6e67291c4bada846a1fdf7841.jpegkp-index-for-august-2017.thumb.jpeg.6031e7f42ac1e5421cb76281823b1c4c.jpeg

1711588640_ScreenShot2019-07-25at1_25_31PM.thumb.png.24fe67b0a10d67c77a3b48c9c45a2b5d.pngnumber-of-c-m-and-x-clas-4.thumb.jpeg.4af8ddaa338f85f9954d9ee0f533fdbf.jpegkp-index-for-september-2.thumb.jpeg.5bdac799acfae69be841a44d8a8741c7.jpeg

325403277_ScreenShot2019-07-25at1_26_23PM.thumb.png.f71a7e885164823ff22f1e96de6c3380.pngnumber-of-c-m-and-x-clas-5.thumb.jpeg.1435fbcb4538fa0718d48c184fb56684.jpegkp-index-for-october-201.thumb.jpeg.889b65def85c23ce5f7e8baaf79358cc.jpeg

530917906_ScreenShot2019-07-25at1_44_00PM.thumb.png.f1b775a8f6f286da714036ca5341e4d8.pngnumber-of-c-m-and-x-clas-6.thumb.jpeg.5232d8d754195f96ba687a2e2faf2c11.jpegkp-index-for-november-20.thumb.jpeg.c0b78ee552b76b0ce1ec98ec0d4d9034.jpeg

1004251398_ScreenShot2019-07-25at1_47_38PM.thumb.png.42d8177d50f047d62e166528f575c0cb.pngnumber-of-c-m-and-x-clas-7.thumb.jpeg.542ab6959e1425f1fe8ab442a17cb9cb.jpegkp-index-for-december-20.thumb.jpeg.f864b089859657c1fb6dd36403274022.jpeg

Edited by theartist

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We now proceed to look at the modulated activity a little more closely.  

The plot below is the GCR activity for July 2017:

1389641819_ScreenShot2019-07-25at5_45_16PM.thumb.png.a8925d2ccd7c1fcbecc93bccf461a891.png

The video below (source) is a quick review of July 2017:

There is considerable solar activity in the month of July 2017, but we'll select the following four main events:

  • Event 1:  July 3-4;
  • Event 2:  July 14;
  • Event 3:  July 23;
  • Event 4:  July 28.

There was further ejection on July 16 from the original ejection starting on July 14; significant modulation of the GCR's starts on July 16 (per the plot above).

For the analysis of the events, we will use imagery from 'SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO-A COR2, in consideration of the position of STEREO-A and planetary positions on the event dates.

Event 1 (July 3-4) Analysis

Here is the position of STEREO-A on July 3, 2017:  1689812594_ScreenShot2019-07-25at6_18_34PM.thumb.png.70907491214e2a6001afac2231243630.png

And here is the solar system planetary position on that date: 1657813480_ScreenShot2019-07-25at7_30_07PM.thumb.png.e500c34b1a1226107ef5d47d263143a1.png

   

From earth's viewpoint, the ejection direction of Event 1 is to the right, and possibly somewhat forward.  

From STEREO-A's viewpoint, the ejection is just slightly to the left, and primarily obscured by the chronograph's solar disk mask.  Since Venus is almost in conjunction with STEREO-A, and opposite the sun, we conclude Event 1's ejection is directed (generally) toward Venus. Note, Neptune is off toward that direction too.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Event 2 (July 14) Analysis

Here is the position of STEREO-A on July 14, 2017:  676154048_ScreenShot2019-07-25at7_51_42PM.thumb.png.28baf10fe8b792b65c94485a2de51d8c.png 

And here is the solar system planetary position on that date: 16907284_ScreenShot2019-07-25at7_59_08PM.thumb.png.fafb10e39314c68614048b564d591d94.png

   

From earth's viewpoint, the ejection direction of Event 2 is to the right, and possibly somewhat forward.  

From STEREO-A's viewpoint, the ejection is just slightly to the left, but a little more left than Event 1, and primarily obscured by the chronograph's solar disk mask.  Since Venus is still almost in conjunction with, and opposite the sun, but it has advanced further 'left' (from STEREO-A's viewpoint) since the time of Event 1, we conclude Event 2's ejection is directed (generally) toward Venus. 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Event 3 (July 23) Analysis

Here is the position of STEREO-A on July 23, 2017:  2094292666_ScreenShot2019-07-26at6_51_38AM.thumb.png.0f08cd9d22b32f14d135bdd70ec2731c.png 

And here is the solar system planetary position on that date: 732537892_ScreenShot2019-07-26at6_57_13AM.thumb.png.b370dc5a72efd040721ea4ae7abb88fd.png

   

From earth's viewpoint, the direction of Event 3's main ejection is directly rearward, opposite of earth.  

From STEREO-A's viewpoint, the ejection is greatly to the left, confirming that the ejection is opposite and away from earth. We conclude Event 3's main ejection is directed toward Mars. 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Event 4 (July 28) Analysis

Here is the position of STEREO-A on July 28, 2017:

 654201956_ScreenShot2019-07-26at7_33_39AM.thumb.png.076fa38d926f0c54e006f29777442615.png1612908030_ScreenShot2019-07-26at7_33_19AM.thumb.png.ab5f40603b742620b17d481226ec1caa.png

And here is the solar system planetary position on July 28, 2017: Screen Shot 2019-07-26 at 7.42.03 AM.png

   

From earth's viewpoint, the ejection direction of Event 4 is to the left.

From STEREO-A's viewpoint, the ejection is directed upward and to the right, somewhat obscured by the chronograph's solar disk mask.  We conclude Event 4's ejection is directed (generally) toward Jupiter.  Mercury could also be taking some of it.

 

 

Edited by theartist

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Try "Inigo Jones long term weather forecaster" aka David Burton on Facebook... Astro-meteorology is not generally not accepted by mainstream science but Mr Burton claims the Solar Cycle is influenced by a group of 9 close adjoining stars and amplified or moderated by the planets depending on the position of all the planets relative to this group of stars. In turn the Solar cycle drives weather patterns on earth the severity of which is also amplified or moderated by the position of all the planets relative to the earth as well as other cycles on earth itself for example oceanic cycles. I personally feel there maybe something to it after all to ignore Astro-meteorology is to ignore observations of the best minds for up to and possibly over 80 000 years or so however I also tend to feel a little sceptical at the accuracy of such theories.

One of Davids references (which he David holds exclusive copyright to) is by a man called W.T.Foster.

You may be interested in both of them.

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Hi Cameron Bridges, thank you for chiming in.  

I hadn't summed up my current theory on this thread yet, which is (the simple version) that although the sun itself goes through cyclical behavior based on its internal dynamo processes, the gas-giants play a large part into setting up the 'characteristics' of solar activity, and thus the solar-cycle, and the inner-solar-system terrestrial planets play their part into the amplification and moderation of that activity.  

In this thread is presented a specific situation, i.e., the increase of solar activity in the latter of half of 2017 that occurred during the normal wind-down of SC24, and the theory I just described is a possible explanation to understanding it, since something specific with the gas-giant alignment happened during that time period.

Now, I'm just in the beginning of understanding and the unveiling of this theory here on the spaceweatherlive forum, by looking at real-world examples from recent history.  I'm not close to trying to extrapolate how the modulation of solar activity by 'planetary clocking' (which is a huge topic by itself), in-turn, affects climate on earth. And I don't think that latter topic (the modulation of earth's climate by solar activity, and/or other extra-terrestrial galactic factors) is necessary to understand the broad concept of influential 'planetary clocking' on solar activity.

 

Edited by theartist
Corrected name of commenter to the thread.

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The following figure is the planetary position in January 2017:427036830_ScreenShot2019-07-27at10_40_08AM.thumb.png.3e80a26cd990dcc7fb30080354b5d84d.png

The following figure is the planetary position in December 2017:1909643824_ScreenShot2019-07-27at10_41_34AM.thumb.png.107c5bdafe3fbe2713ddd3618ac34b8c.png

Jupiter's direct opposition to Uranus occurred on March 3, 2017 and again on September 27, 2017.  From the end of 2017 onward, Jupiter's solar influence would be increasingly diminished as it approached the sapping influence of Saturn.

When I say "sapping influence", consider the model of each of the planets and sun as special type of electrodes in a very high vacuum, a vacuum more rarified than that ever achieved to-date in the laboratory.  But these are very special types of electrodes than those considered by Langmuir, having not only different electrostatic potentials amongst each other, but they also have, to various degree, self-generated magnetic fields and inertial moments.

Edited by theartist

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I just had what might be termed an epiphany.  This insight may be a key puzzle piece (i.e., the ROSETTA STONE) into the understanding of how 'planetary clocking' influences solar cycles.  I will hurriedly attempt to get my thoughts down, and go back and clean up as necessary.

I start by showing you the planetary position ~360years (2x180yrs) ago, and ~180years ago, for our current positioning is related.

NOTES:

  • Planetary Positioning;
  • Planet magnet dipole alignments;
  • Heliospheric Current Sheet;
  • Potential Consequences for SC25.

Below is the positioning ~360 years ago, when we were in the, so-called, Maunder Minimum.

74516092_1663July.thumb.png.9c75748ed3b21b22dd7bfe34db3c11f9.png

Below is the positioning ~180 years ago.  This was 1.4 yrs before the "Start" of SC9.  The Smoothed maximum ISN of SC9 was 219.9. (Actually, 25 January 1842 was the Jupiter/Saturn conjunction.😥

2128416581_1842March.thumb.png.7b02adece7f108fab302d286d2f846c9.png 

Below is the positioning in contemporary times, with the Jupiter/Saturn conjunction to occur on 21 December 2020. This is 1.8 years after the "Start" of SC25 (this "Start" is tentative, per this thread.)

 1192353130_2020Dec.thumb.png.8c66ca2a82f838b33676a0d30583e607.png 

Edited by theartist

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Now, here is a representation of Uranus' and Neptune's magnetic axis orientations (source)845989811_ScreenShot2019-07-29at5_02_45PM.thumb.png.51dcfafe982450291374a77760fa993d.png 

Below is an animation of the rotating heliospheric current sheet (source):

hcs_rotate.gif.105d850ca2eccb9ff238661178b84235.gif

Additionally, the "Artist's Conception of the Heliospheric Current Sheet", below, was sourced from here.helio.png.6aaabb3a534c99712ed2f9724dedb290.png 

My point, simple yet sublime, is this:  spatial and temporal positioning of the planetary 'magnets' can facilitate or squelch release of the solar heliospheric current sheet, thus influencing the 'magnitude' of a solar cycle's activity!

Edited by theartist

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