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SOLAR CYCLE 25 Prediction/Forecast by SpaceWeatherLive forum

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This first 'headline' post in this thread will contain a summary of the prediction arrived at by concensus of this community forum.  Check back from time to time as it is updated.  Posts that follow this first 'headline' post will give supporting evidence as to how the consensus was arrived at.  

  • Solar Minimum (i.e., the Nadir of Cycle 24 which is the "Start" of Cycle 25):   before March 2019, and likely January or February 2019.
    • (Note, this is based on the "Bremen Metric" discussed in this thread,  Solar Cycle 25 has already "started", in combination with up-to-date review of the ISN Daily Total, Monthly Mean Total, and 13-month Smoothed Monthly Total.)
  • Solar Maximum (Peak):   within period  Nov. 2021-to-Nov. 2024.
    • (Note, that is 5.2 yrs +/- 1.5 yrs from Solar Minimum.) 
  • Sunspot Peak Range:  100-to-135.
    • (Note, with a 20% chance > 135, and 5% chance <100. These numbers will likely be modified with further review of the evidence. Current consensus is biased toward SC25 being as strong or stronger than SC24.)
Edited by theartist

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On 7/14/2019 at 2:13 AM, theartist said:

Solar Maximum (Peak):   within period  Nov. 2021-to-Nov. 2024.

  • (Note, that is 5.2 yrs +/- 1.5 yrs from Solar Minimum.) 

The average Time of Rise for all of the past 24 solar cycles is 4.4 years, per List_of_solar_cycles.  However, we've chosen to be selective of the cycles to include in the computation of the average.  Below is a plot of the 'weak' solar cycles.  These are the seven (7) cycles that met The Panel's Peak Range prediction (as discussed in this thread:  Solar Cycle 25 Predictions/Forecasts by 'The Panel' & NASA.)

1466286149_ScreenShot2019-07-15at2_35_38AM.thumb.png.1e40ae13cb836f939c2dc234e7b9dc61.png

We can toss out SC5, since it did not meet The Panel's Rise Time to Solar Maximum prediction.  The average Time of Rise for the remaining six (6) cycles is 5.2 yrs.  A three-year window for Peak was selected by The Panel in their prediction, and thus, our forecast is for the Solar Maximum (Peak) to occur within a three-year window centered around the 5.2 yr projected Time of Rise.

Edited by theartist

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On 7/14/2019 at 2:13 AM, theartist said:

Current consensus is biased toward SC25 being as strong or stronger than SC24.

Marcel, over on the Solar Cycle 25 has already "started". thread, you state,

On 6/29/2019 at 5:02 AM, Marcel de Bont said:

a short minimum...would increase the chances of SC25 being stronger than SC24

Do you care to elaborate further here on this point?

Edited by theartist

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There is an accepted methodology called the solar cycle 'precursor method' scientists use when predicting solar cycles. Generally speaking, they are able to predict more accurately the size of the coming solar cycle once the solar minimum has passed, usually by 1-2 years. This method basically means that if the solar minimum phase was shorter (300-400 spotless days, or 1-2 years), then the following solar cycle will be more active than average. Likewise, if the solar minimum was longer (600-900 spotless days, 2-3 years) then the following solar cycle will be less active than average. This data and more is on the Belgian solar activity website spotless days page http://www.sidc.be/silso/spotless. The only drawback of this method is that it can only predict the solar cycle several years after the solar minimum.

In terms of making earlier predictions (before the solar cycle minimum), the most successful theory so far has been developed by Stanford University solar physics professor Leif Svalgaard. This is the Solar Polar Fields method. At Stanford they have been monitoring the strength of the solar polar fields since 1976 and found that this can predict the coming solar cycle more accurately than other methods ahead of time. Basically, the stronger the solar polar fields are at solar minimum, the stronger the coming solar cycle will be, and vice versa. In this current solar minimum, the polar fields are a little stronger than at the previous solar minimum, but still weaker than other solar cycles. This has led Professor Svalgaard to predict that Solar Cycle 25 will be marginally stronger than the Solar Cycle 24 just passed. The solar polar fields method is also the one endorsed & used by NOAA for early predictions. 

The values of the solar polar fields can be monitored at the Stanford Wilcox Solar Observatory webpage http://wso.stanford.edu/Polar.html

Below is a graph showing Svalgaard's prediction  - and the related article is here https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2018/06/09/leif-svalgaard-reveals-his-solar-cycle-25-prediction-at-last/

image.png.3146fab2cfe0a553db7bda99372d8853.png

 

And here is a statement from Leif Svalgaard http://lasp.colorado.edu/media/projects/SORCE/meetings/2018/Oral_Presentations/6_c_Svalgaard_Contri.pdf

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Thank you northwind-adventurer.

7 hours ago, northwind-adventurer said:

Wherein we read, "Including the evidence from the recent heliospheric magnetic field [that also is a precursor of the cycle] leads to an estimate for SC25 approximately midway between cycles 20 and 24.

Midway between SC20 (156.6 Smoothed Max ISN) and SC24 (116.4 Smoothed Max ISN) gives 136.5, which does not even fall within The Panel's Peak Range prediction of 95-to-130.

So if the method is also the one endorsed & used by NOAA for early predictions, a question arises as to why 'The Panel prediction' was biased lower than Svalgaard's method? 

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Op 16/7/2019 om 04:58, theartist zei:

Marcel, over on the Solar Cycle 25 has already "started". thread, you state,

Do you care to elaborate further here on this point?

I don't remember where I read about that thought it was on SIDCs website somewhere but cant find it. Might have been a scientific paper. Could be mixing up things. Anyway, thought this graph was interesting showing the historical 10.7cm radio flux where short or prolonged periods of ''quiet radio sun'' do seem to tell a bit about the next cycle. Check also http://www.stce.be/news/417/welcome.html

Also a big thanks to northwind-adventurer for chiming in with his excellent post.

Figure1.png

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