Space Environment Monitor (SEM) 'Triggers' for Earthquake Alert Proxy

[goldminor]

4 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

Could you describe a phenomenon or influence that a particular phase of the moon can induce here on Earth? From my understanding, there is only variance in the amount of light reflecting from the Moon towards Earth. I cannot find anything about what you are talking about, nor have I ever been explained to the significance of the phases of the moon.

I want to add that in a matter of days from now, the moon with be in a western quadrature configuration, or Last Quarter phase. Perhaps we will be able to see a seismic event in this timeframe and thus give more credence to the idea of Lunar phase influence!

I first noticed this after getting interested in quakes following the Great Tohoku Quake on March 2011. I started keeping a daily record over at Newsvine. Unfortunately they wiped out most of that post rendering it useless. I started it by keeping a record of the change in the 24 hour rate of quakes. I also took note of anything which appeared unusual. Somewhere along the way I started to wonder about lunar correlations in respect to upswings in stronger quakes. What I see is this. The most likely time to see strong (bolded on USGS) quakes is at the full or new moons primarily, and sometimes at the first/last quarters. Although early in 2019 a change took place in the overall pattern of global quakes which led me to make a comment at the time on WUWT about that.

Keep on mind that I am continually learning as I go. I have come across several recent observations of late since I started interacting here. Here is what I have found when looking a list of the strongest quakes since 2000 and up to 2016. Out of the 19 quakes on the list 11 strike in a lunar phase containing 8 days. On a list of the major New Madrid quakes 5 out of 7 strike on an 8 day lunar phase. I use this for that information, ... http://www.astropixels.com/ephemeris/moon/phases2001pst.html

Of further interest was noting that the majority of very strong or major quakes strike around the longest lunar month of the year. Using the lost of 19 quakes mentioned above seven strike close to or during the longest lunar month, and 4 at the shortest lunar month. ... http://www.astropixels.com/ephemeris/moon/synodicmonth2001.html

Another very important factor, imo, is the solar minimum. On another list of 20 of the strongest quakes, 10 strike close to or at the solar minimum, and 6 strike at the solar maximum. Then on the New Madrid Seismic Zone all but one strike at the solar minimum plus during a Gleissberg/grand minimum, and all 7 in the winter. I will add more detail later on.

[Christopher S.]

9 hours ago, goldminor said:

I first noticed this after getting interested in quakes following the Great Tohoku Quake on March 2011. I started keeping a daily record over at Newsvine. Unfortunately they wiped out most of that post rendering it useless. I started it by keeping a record of the change in the 24 hour rate of quakes. I also took note of anything which appeared unusual. Somewhere along the way I started to wonder about lunar correlations in respect to upswings in stronger quakes. What I see is this. The most likely time to see strong (bolded on USGS) quakes is at the full or new moons primarily, and sometimes at the first/last quarters. Although early in 2019 a change took place in the overall pattern of global quakes which led me to make a comment at the time on WUWT about that.

Keep on mind that I am continually learning as I go. I have come across several recent observations of late since I started interacting here. Here is what I have found when looking a list of the strongest quakes since 2000 and up to 2016. Out of the 19 quakes on the list 11 strike in a lunar phase containing 8 days. On a list of the major New Madrid quakes 5 out of 7 strike on an 8 day lunar phase. I use this for that information, ... http://www.astropixels.com/ephemeris/moon/phases2001pst.html

Of further interest was noting that the majority of very strong or major quakes strike around the longest lunar month of the year. Using the lost of 19 quakes mentioned above seven strike close to or during the longest lunar month, and 4 at the shortest lunar month. ... http://www.astropixels.com/ephemeris/moon/synodicmonth2001.html

Another very important factor, imo, is the solar minimum. On another list of 20 of the strongest quakes, 10 strike close to or at the solar minimum, and 6 strike at the solar maximum. Then on the New Madrid Seismic Zone all but one strike at the solar minimum plus during a Gleissberg/grand minimum, and all 7 in the winter. I will add more detail later on.

I'm not seeing the correlation that you are when reviewing this data. Could you possibly give a hypothesis as to what exactly is occurring which influences seismic activity, apart from the phases of the moon? Why would the phase of the moon have greater influence on seismic events than tidal stress?

[goldminor]

3 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

I'm not seeing the correlation that you are when reviewing this data. Could you possibly give a hypothesis as to what exactly is occurring which influences seismic activity, apart from the phases of the moon? Why would the phase of the moon have greater influence on seismic events than tidal stress?

When I refer to the moon having an effect I am talking about its tidal effect on the Earth. The shifting intensity of the of the tidal effect could be the answer. That is a lot of weight which gets moved from one spot to another during peak tides. Here is a question. Does the moon cause the planet to flex to any degree as it changes position? Is it the moon in phase with the sun which leads to the moon gaining the ability to trigger quakes? Other than that I am limited in my ability to flesh out the exact scientific explanation.

So I observe and try to deduce clues from changes in patterns in the rate of quakes per 24 hour time frames, any given 24 hour period. For example, I had forecast for this full moon yesterday to be a likely time for a very strong or greater quake. Quakes striking at Puerto Rico had continued to hit at an above average rate over the last several weeks. Then around Tuesday PR quakes jumped up to 60 to 70 percent of all quakes being shown on USGS. That is much higher than on average.That rate held in place all the way up to last night. The rate has since fallen in half over the last 16 hours. Was that a near miss for PR? An almost but not quite triggering moment? At the last new moon at the end of January (a likely time for an event, imo) the Taal volcano experienced 915 quake at this prime time for an eruption. The experts were all saying imminent eruption, but as the lunar period shifted the intense acyion at Taal faded away. Was that also a close call? If you read back through the comments here you will find that I had already forecast weeks before that both the Taal volcano and PR would have a greater probability around that time. The result? Taal had the 915 quakes, and PR had its last strong quake at 5.0 at the last new moon. Was that a close call, a missed triggering event?

Here is something of interest, note the sizeable spoke on Oulo taking place right now. Note that both the max and the min for the Oulo record coincided with major Earth events. The max was the devastating Haiti quake, and the min was the Pinatubo eruption.

[Christopher S.]

40 minutes ago, goldminor said:

When I refer to the moon having an effect I am talking about its tidal effect on the Earth. The shifting intensity of the of the tidal effect could be the answer. That is a lot of weight which gets moved from one spot to another during peak tides. Here is a question. Does the moon cause the planet to flex to any degree as it changes position? Is it the moon in phase with the sun which leads to the moon gaining the ability to trigger quakes? Other than that I am limited in my ability to flesh out the exact scientific explanation.

The phases of the moon do not necessarily indicate where the tidal "bulge" is, that is to say, the portion of Earth that is being tugged on by the gravity of the moon; remember that all objects with mass have gravity and therefore attract other objects regardless of who's gravity is stronger, and so, combined with an orbit or at least movement in close proximity, we have tides.

Remember that the Earth is rotating, so the tides cycle between high and low within roughly a 24 hour period, regardless of the phase of the moon. The only significance of the phase or orbital position of the moon is how it interacts with Solar tides; I mentioned earlier that the tides cancel one another out once the moon is at a 90º to the Sun, relative to the Earth. This is the quadrature configuration. The Solar tide is about one-third of the strength of the Lunar tide, since the moon is much closer to Earth.

Also remember that the moon takes 28 days, roughly, to complete an orbit around the Earth. All that the phase describes is the appearance and orbital position of the moon from the point of observation on Earth, and its interaction with the Solar tides. Since the tidal forces are very dynamic, and the physics of the tectonic plates are very dynamic as well, it is difficult to determine what causes what, especially with limited technological insight as to what is occurring beneath the mantle.

I feel that I could have done a better job explaining these things, but I have been drinking a bit and have been up all night reading.

[goldminor]

4 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

I feel that I could have done a better job explaining these things, but I have been drinking a bit and have been up all night reading.

That was informative, and gives me a better picture to think about.

[theartist]

On 2/9/2020 at 2:36 PM, Christopher S. said:

I got confused for a moment, as I believe you meant May 14th instead of April 14th

Yep, sorry about that.

On 2/9/2020 at 10:37 AM, theartist said:

Firstly, notice in the above data that there does not seem to be any significant trend in big earthquakes between solar minimum and solar maximum.  (Do we all agree on that point?)

So then, to those that want to participate in an open (objective) 'science' project, I suggest to first start with the top row (i.e., quakes 8.0-9.9) and see how often any 'trigger signal correlations' (whatever they may be) show up in the SEM data.

I performed the above task using GOES 15 satellite data (which only goes back to 2011), and here are the results:

In the above table, "SEM Trigger Signal 1" is the trigger signal described in the original post to this thread.  "SEM Trigger Signal 2" is simply any abnormal rise in EPEAD Protons, those possessing higher energy than the lowest level of "pB(>1 MeV)c". 

 

Edited February 10, 2020 by theartist

[Jenn]

On 2/9/2020 at 3:34 AM, Christopher S. said:

I pointed out that I was not the person who mentioned anything political. I did not address my comment to anyone in particular. You are not the only person on this thread making comments, Goldminor. If you cannot see that, then there is nothing in writing that I can say which you will treat fairly. Acting as though you are being antagonized or targeted is very much a deterrent for logical, fair conversation.

My sentiment is to use all available sources of information which can be free of superstition, political commentary, and disproven beliefs about our universe. Astrologers of ancient times believed the Earth is flat, and that it is the center of the universe. Are you to say that you believe this as well, despite being mathematically proven to be false? Am I biased because I believe in the math and theorems which prove this false? The same theorems which has allowed humanity to travel into Space and beyond? The same math which allowed humans to travel to the Moon, land, then leave the Moon and make it safely back to Earth?

It is not my concern what you think of me, personally; backpedaling, soothsaying, asking loaded questions, and committing ad hominem attacks is well within your right. However, it doesn't make you right. As I have said before, any Astrophysicist will tell you that Astrology is superstitious, and will give you several reasons why, if you're still open to a rational discussion after the fact. Based on this voracious reaction and personal affront towards me, I believe you do not have the capacity to learn anything about the universe.

At the very least, "theartist" and "goldminor" have caught on to the well-intentioned idea that the positions of planets in the Solar System have an observable influence on phenomenon such as Sunspots and Coronal Holes. This is perhaps a new frontier for research of stars like our own Sun, and it makes me very excited! However, when the conversation turns to "something big is going to happen," this is more akin to fear-mongering and blind prediction than it is to tying together a rational, cohesive hypothesis for what "it all means."

 

The most important thing to understand is that for everything we learn about the universe, the abyss of our ignorance grows. Settling with an idea and thinking it will explain everything is denial of this ignorance.

The last two sentences made more sense than any of your posts I’ve seen thus far. It holds more truth than maybe you realize. To deny anything is possible, is to be ignorant. 
 

Dancing all around with words, trying to make sense of our universe with a perception not open to design and magic is where we differ. Astronomy is deeply embedded with superstitious names and characters of mythology. They tell a story and it’s safe to assume you have never had your natal chart read with an intuitive astrologer. 
 The light brings with it information and we know this. This knowing brings with it experiences which are encoded in our DNA. Being open to discoveries beyond your imagination will allow you to see the bigger picture whereas your bias doesn’t get in the way of truth. That’s all I will say other than discussing the subject where you agree and leaving comments of distraction at the door seems better for further insight. Learning from one another is key. 

[Christopher S.]

On 2/9/2020 at 1:36 PM, Christopher S. said:

I want to add that in a matter of days from now, the moon with be in a western quadrature configuration, or Last Quarter phase. Perhaps we will be able to see a seismic event in this timeframe and thus give more credence to the idea of Lunar phase influence!

Today, Feb. 13th, 2020, an M6.9 quake struck near Kuril Islands, at roughly the beginning of the western quadrature configuration. This is interesting; I will have to do a bit more digging into other quakes of similar magnitude at around the beginning or ends of these quarter phases.

[goldminor]

9 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

Today, Feb. 13th, 2020, an M6.9 quake struck near Kuril Islands, at roughly the beginning of the western quadrature configuration. This is interesting; I will have to do a bit more digging into other quakes of similar magnitude at around the beginning or ends of these quarter phases.

Also of interest, Puerto Rico quakes had been running around 50% of quakes on the USGS map up until yesterday, and at a rate of low 40s per 24 hours. Then yesterday the PR quakes subsided a bit, the 24 hour rate increased, strong quakes increased globally, and today of the current 53 quakes in the last 24 hours only 19 are at PR.

[Christopher S.]

1 hour ago, goldminor said:

Also of interest, Puerto Rico quakes had been running around 50% of quakes on the USGS map up until yesterday, and at a rate of low 40s per 24 hours. Then yesterday the PR quakes subsided a bit, the 24 hour rate increased, strong quakes increased globally, and today of the current 53 quakes in the last 24 hours only 19 are at PR.

As I said previously, USGS doesn't report anywhere near the actual amount of earthquakes globally compared to EMSC. Whether you're tuned into USGS or not, their reporting is arbitrary, whereas EMSC is indiscriminate(although anything below M2.0 outside of Europe is not shown).

[goldminor]

The last 5 days have been above average for stronger quakes around the world.  I wonder if the current planetary configuration has something to do with this spike in large quakes. Seven of the planets are are roughly lined up in the same sector of space. ... https://mgvez.github.io/jsorrery/

The planet has been mostly quiet for a number of months until this last week. This also took place at the New Moon which imo is a contributor to seeing larger quakes.

[Christopher S.]

9 hours ago, goldminor said:

The last 5 days have been above average for stronger quakes around the world.  I wonder if the current planetary configuration has something to do with this spike in large quakes. Seven of the planets are are roughly lined up in the same sector of space. ... https://mgvez.github.io/jsorrery/

The planet has been mostly quiet for a number of months until this last week. This also took place at the New Moon which imo is a contributor to seeing larger quakes.

Remember, you use USGS which reports on seismic activity sporadically. The amount of Earthquakes above m4.0 and also above m4.5 have been roughly the same for several months. Use EMSC to verify this. https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/?

[goldminor]

On 6/25/2020 at 12:01 AM, Christopher S. said:

Remember, you use USGS which reports on seismic activity sporadically. The amount of Earthquakes above m4.0 and also above m4.5 have been roughly the same for several months. Use EMSC to verify this. https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/?

I occasionally look at EMSC. Both sites show the same for the larger quakes, which is what caught my attention. You are correct though on the difference. I noted the same many years ago. What I find of interest which led to my comment the other day is that in examining strong historical quakes and what jsOrrerey shows for the planetary alignment at the time of these larger quakes I have found a number of examples which show similar alignments of multiple planets sitting in a string of approximate alignment in a given sector of space. Similar to the current string of 7 planets lined up as shown on jsOrrerey. The planet had been fairly quiet for quake activity since February until this past 5 days.

[Christopher S.]

On 6/26/2020 at 12:18 AM, goldminor said:

The planet had been fairly quiet for quake activity since February until this past 5 days.

If you make use of the sorting tool in EMSC, you will find that it is perfectly average for a given magnitude of Earthquakes for a 90-day period. For >m5.5 quakes, which I would consider generally on the higher end of moderate, it's doing 10-11 every week for the last 30 days. I am not seeing a surge in activity using empirical data.

I want to add that there have been no EPEAD Electron signaling in correlation to the m7.0+ quakes since GOES-16 took over monitoring duties, which leads me to believe that the instruments on G-15 were extremely sensitive to the Arcjet thrusters used to maneuver the spacecraft during minor orbit adjustments. We shall see however if that changes in the future.

Edited June 28, 2020 by Christopher S.
Added some information.

[goldminor]

7 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

If you make use of the sorting tool in EMSC, you will find that it is perfectly average for a given magnitude of Earthquakes for a 90-day period. For >m5.5 quakes, which I would consider generally on the higher end of moderate, it's doing 10-11 every week for the last 30 days. I am not seeing a surge in activity using empirical data.

I want to add that there have been no EPEAD Electron signaling in correlation to the m7.0+ quakes since GOES-16 took over monitoring duties, which leads me to believe that the instruments on G-15 were extremely sensitive to the Arcjet thrusters used to maneuver the spacecraft during minor orbit adjustments. We shall see however if that changes in the future.

I noticed the same thing earlier today using USGS. The weekly rate for 4.5 or greater global quakes was average. I should have looked prior to commenting. Thanks.