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Space Environment Monitor (SEM) 'Triggers' for Earthquake Alert Proxy

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3 hours ago, theartist said:

Goldminor, thank you for the reply with data.  Before I look at it more closely, can you please clarify what the dotted-orange squiggly line represents in bottom graph?

I would assume that the orange line represents Dr Svalgaard's interpretation of the upper boundaries for future solar cycles. This high res graph of his, which he shared in a post on WUWT, aided me greatly in my search for solar/oceans correlation.

 

An interesting turn to the speculation on lunar/quake connections. As the moon neared its alignment between the Earth/Sun, there were 3 strong 5.0+ around Fiji in a 30 minute period from 2:00 to 2:30 UTC, and then the global quake count dropped for the next 4 hours, plus from 9:00 UTC 25 to 6:30 UTC 26 there were only 3 quakes at PR/VI in that 15+ hour period. Quakes at PR/VI have since returned to a higher rate 21/24 hours, plus a larger 4.8 an hour ago.

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goldminor, with regard to plotting sunspot numbers, here is something that folks may find useful:  over at this link, http://lasp.colorado.edu/lisird/, one can pull up the historical ISN.

  ISN.thumb.png.8b36c97ccb75c5f8fe2b48a7c25b9208.png.

 

One can zoom in or out on graphs at that URL by following instructions I've annotated to the following graph:

1008496370_Zoomingthelaspwindows.thumb.jpg.588e7592cf11f0464789a73181a8689f.jpg

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On 12/25/2019 at 1:53 AM, Capricopia said:

And there was a series of small quakes  near Mt Rainier over the last 6 days...

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/mount_rainier-earthquakes.html

Hi Capricopia,  I just now received a notice that you had commented to this thread.  (There is a delay before a new member's first post appears to others, so we were not ignoring you. 😥 )

Welcome to the forum.  

Edited by theartist

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16 hours ago, theartist said:

goldminor, with regard to plotting sunspot numbers, here is something that folks may find useful:  over at this link, http://lasp.colorado.edu/lisird/, one can pull up the historical ISN.

  ISN.thumb.png.8b36c97ccb75c5f8fe2b48a7c25b9208.png.

 

One can zoom in or out on graphs at that URL by following instructions I've annotated to the following graph:

1008496370_Zoomingthelaspwindows.thumb.jpg.588e7592cf11f0464789a73181a8689f.jpg

Nice link, that should keep me occupied for a few years.

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One last observation on quakes for 2019. Early this year I noticed a change in the daily quake pattern which led me to make a comment at WUWT that global quake patterns had changed comparative to the 8 years of my observing the daily quake map. Just today I now see that another change is in progress. The number of global quakes has dropped suddenly, for the third time. The first two times also caught my attention, but the 2 points didn't add up to anything. Now with this 3rd sudden slow down I wonder if there may be something more to this. The first of these quiet times started on 11/30 , 12/1, then Dec12th, 13th, and now the 27th. In between those dates the rate was double to quadruple, as high as 96/24 hours at the peak, but mainly running in the low 40s/24 hours. In 8.5 years of watching I have seen sudden drops, but never a sequence like this. If this sequence continues, then there will be another sudden drop around the 10th to the 12th of January, and again around the new moon on the 24th, or shortly after.

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On 12/25/2019 at 5:18 PM, goldminor said:

Here is a possible clue for determining correlation. ...it occurred to me to search back through the full SC record for any minima periods where a significant  La Nina does not form up. To my surprise the answer was yes, and it happened during the last Gleissberg in the early 1900s.

At the minimum between SC13 and SC14 the ENSO regions went slightly negative for a short time before leaning positive for the rest of the minimum. And at the end of SC14 the ENSO regions responded the same. All other minima periods correlate with substantial negative trends in the ENSO regions. So my prediction is that this indicates that SC25 will be a weaker cycle because the ENSO region has refused to go more than slightly negative so far, and there is no indication for a La Nina of any strength to set in over the near future. That places the prospect for the next La Nina at the very end of this minimum, or later.

Goldminor, I ask that you consider the 'abnormal' ONI before the start of SC18, and also, observe the ONI before the start of SC19.  Possibly, those are two cases that run counter to your theory?

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For some reason I had it in my mind that the negative ENSO in late 2017/early 2018 was shorter and weaker than it actually was. Now looking at ONI I can see that it came close to -1 C. That puts an end to my idea right there. My focus has been a bit off over the last 22 months. I was told then that I needed to immediately start dialysis. Still thinking about that.

The ONI page only goes back to 1950. Is there a longer version? The MEI for 1943/44 looks similar to the ONI at 2017/18. There is a negative dip which crosses -1 C during the course of a year before coming to an end. Then there is that long/strong La Nina prior to SC19, from early 1954 through 1956.

 

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23 hours ago, goldminor said:

For some reason I had it in my mind that the negative ENSO in late 2017/early 2018 was shorter and weaker than it actually was. Now looking at ONI I can see that it came close to -1 C. That puts an end to my idea right there. My focus has been a bit off over the last 22 months. I was told then that I needed to immediately start dialysis. Still thinking about that.

The ONI page only goes back to 1950. Is there a longer version? The MEI for 1943/44 looks similar to the ONI at 2017/18. There is a negative dip which crosses -1 C during the course of a year before coming to an end. Then there is that long/strong La Nina prior to SC19, from early 1954 through 1956.

 

Now I see why I had that idea. It is a consequence of changes made to the MEI at the end of 2018 which altered the entire history of the MEI. I thought that my memory had failed me. Thus the upper comment. I feel better now.  For some reason the new MEI which came out in 4/2019 lessened all of the high peaks, and lengthened all of the cold lows. I note now that the new MEI starts in 1979. That suggests that they have used satellite data only as the basis for the graph, and that would explain most of the changes which I see. That does suggest that under the former method for modeling the MEI my idea still has merit. Here is the last original MEI, and the first new MEI.

Note the Great El Nino of 1997/98. It goes from a peak of 3.0 C to a peak of 2.6 C with the new MEI. Plus the twin peaks have been reversed. How did they miss that 20 years ago when they were right there to watch the entire El Nino? Makes me wonder about the process.

MEI ...12 1 18 last one before change.png

MEI ...4 2 19.png

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17 hours ago, goldminor said:

How did they miss that 20 years ago when they were right there to watch the entire El Nino? Makes me wonder about the process.

Goldminor, there may be more than just a 'questionable process' going on.  Consider the possibility that the effects of solar activity on earth's weather are potentially amplified by alterations (ionization) and/or additions to earth's atmosphere, due to human activity. (I'm not referring to only the addition of CO2 to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels.)  What if those 'amplification effects' swamp the relatively minor cyclical variation of the sun?  If anthropogenic activity does have significant effect on earth's weather, then one may find themselves going down a rabbit-hole of endless debate, while lacking adequate information on the problem from the get-go.

(BTW, I hope you're feeling better.)

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7 hours ago, theartist said:

Goldminor, there may be more than just a 'questionable process' going on.  Consider the possibility that the effects of solar activity on earth's weather are potentially amplified by alterations (ionization) and/or additions to earth's atmosphere, due to human activity. (I'm not referring to only the addition of CO2 to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels.)  What if those 'amplification effects' swamp the relatively minor cyclical variation of the sun?  If anthropogenic activity does have significant effect on earth's weather, then one may find themselves going down a rabbit-hole of endless debate, while lacking adequate information on the problem from the get-go.

(BTW, I hope you're feeling better.)

If our modern electric technology has some effect, then there would be no way at this time  to "see" it, imo. I say that as I see our current status of understanding what processes drive the climate as "just beginning to see the picture". I would bet everything I own, which isn't much, that the ever growing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is a benefit for mankind and all life on Earth. The slight ability of CO2 to cause warmer temps is greatly outweighed by natural climate drivers, ie: oceans, surface winds, cyclical solar influences, undoubtedly some cyclical lunar effects, changes to the Length of Day, probably galactic effects of which we know next to nothing about, and of course Milankovitch effects.

I read some comments about the new 5G technology potentially having negative impacts for us, and for animals/birds as well. I heard it as 5G will operate within a frequency which is also used in nature by wildlife, and maybe even have an effect on the human brain. Have we examined this possibility? I trust the person who raised this possibility as being a clear thinking individual, not prone to wild speculation. Plus, his science background is in electronics.

Back to the climate, I think that natural factors still dominate the planet's climate system. Over time, nature will prove the agw alarmists wrong. This Warm Period is no different from any of the other previous Warm Periods. I see clues which lead me to believe that above average temps will remain the status quo to around either side of 2200. This last peak of warming over the last 20 years will in the future be seen as the peak of the Modern Warm Period which started in the early 1700s, imo. There should be some occasional short term cooling trends along the way. We are very likely in one right now which will last into the mid 2030s. This latter thought has much to do with why I think that the next NMSZ quake is at hand.

I am feeling pretty good. I always ate good food, but I completely changed my diet 22 months ago after the diagnosis. That has been beneficial. Plus, I have been using several natural remedies which I came across from reading up on what confronts me. The nuts and bolts of it was that my kidney function had dropped to 16%. That was always the baseline where doctors would want a patient to start dialysis. Several weeks after being informed of my condition I found new information while reading at the National Kidney Foundation site. There it was stated that the latest understanding in medicine is that doctors should not place patients on dialysis until kidney function drops to 9%. So I cheerfully accepted this new understanding. With my change in diet it could be 10 years or more before I would have to face the prospect of dialysis, and I am not diabetic. I may even make it through the rest of my life like this. Genetically, many in my family tree live into their late 90s. So I might be able to hang on close to 2050 which would be great as I could then see how well my flood/solar/ENSO predictions hold up over the next two to 3 solar cycles.

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On 12/18/2019 at 12:17 AM, goldminor said:

I have been at it all day looking at past alignments and cross comparing.

Goldminor, I just came across an article regarding a strange event on 11-11-2018: "Strange waves rippled around the world, and nobody knows why".

I don't know whether there is any related significance to the following occurring simultaneously on that day:

  • a Venus-Earth-Uranus geocentric conjunction;
  • sort-of an Earth-Mars-Neptune geocentric conjunction;
  • sort-of an Earth-Mercury-Jupiter geocentric conjunction.

spacer.png

😳

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1 hour ago, theartist said:

Goldminor, I just came across an article regarding a strange event on 11-11-2018: "Strange waves rippled around the world, and nobody knows why".

I don't know whether there is any related significance to the following occurring simultaneously on that day:

  • a Venus-Earth-Uranus geocentric conjunction;
  • sort-of an Earth-Mars-Neptune geocentric conjunction;
  • sort-of an Earth-Mercury-Jupiter geocentric conjunction.

spacer.png

😳

 

1 hour ago, theartist said:

Goldminor, I just came across an article regarding a strange event on 11-11-2018: "Strange waves rippled around the world, and nobody knows why".

I don't know whether there is any related significance to the following occurring simultaneously on that day:

  • a Venus-Earth-Uranus geocentric conjunction;
  • sort-of an Earth-Mars-Neptune geocentric conjunction;
  • sort-of an Earth-Mercury-Jupiter geocentric conjunction.

spacer.png

😳

Imo, the quake swarms at Mayotte are an indicator of activity in the South African Magnetic Anomaly. I also think that the SAMA has correlation with the Great Cascadia Quake history/mega quakes. This is long term cycles though. I have come to give consideration to the idea that this current Modern Warm Period (long term 500+/- year warm cycle) started shortly after the SAMA shifted in the late 1600s. In 1700 the Cascadia fault let go with a mega quake. Global warming asserts itself shortly after that around 1730. My prediction based on that and the rest of the known history is the Warm Period will end around 2150 to 2250 AD. The SAMA will undergo a shift, and the next great quake on the Cascadia should strike shortly after. Then a Cool Period begins which will last around 425 +/- years.. In olden times they were known as Dark Ages. Big question is there a solar influence in magnetic shifts in the SAMA, or is that an earth only magnetic process?

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Big quake in China this morning, ... https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1230470/China-earthquake-latest-Arzak-magnitude-USGS-update

11 minutes ago, goldminor said:

The last big quake in Kansas was on 4/24/1867, at the SOLAR MINIMUM.

24 minutes ago, goldminor said:

Big quake in China this morning, ... https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1230470/China-earthquake-latest-Arzak-magnitude-USGS-update

The last big quake in Kansas was on 4/24/1867, at the SOLAR MINIMUM.

Also of interest, the 24 rate of quakes started dropping slightly yesterday, and today has dropped substantially when counting quakes outside of Alaska and Puerto Rico. This could portend something different is going on. Here is an interesting thought. How is that Puerto Rico quakes over the last several months constitute approximately 50% of total global quakes at any given time? with the exception of large swarms after the largest of PR quakes.

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6 hours ago, goldminor said:

 

The last big quake in Kansas was on 4/24/1867, at the SOLAR MINIMUM.

 

I have been wondering over this last year, if one of the factors which induces larger quakes in the middle of the US is having a deep cold snap encompass that region. A severe cold snap is now about to drop deep into the US. Will this be the final straw which triggers the New Madrid?

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13 hours ago, goldminor said:

Will this be the final straw which triggers the New Madrid?

There are no geological faults near Hutchison, KS pertaining to the New Madrid.

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3 hours ago, theartist said:

There are no geological faults near Hutchison, KS pertaining to the New Madrid.

Tennessee had a 3.8 just a few hours ago. It posted red on USGS even though it wasn't that strong. USGS must give it extra weight because of its location. It is part of the New Madrid zone.

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12 hours ago, goldminor said:

Tennessee had a 3.8 just a few hours ago. It posted red on USGS even though it wasn't that strong. USGS must give it extra weight because of its location. It is part of the New Madrid zone.

Early Tuesday morning, and the quake map  is extra quiet. In the last 14 hours there has been only one strong quake on the USGS quake map. Everything else is weak below 4 magnitude.

1 minute ago, goldminor said:

Early Tuesday morning, and the quake map  is extra quiet. In the last 14 hours there has been only one strong quake on the USGS quake map. Everything else is weak below 4 magnitude.

Puerto Rico is showing 20 quakes out of the 40 listed on the map, Again, there is that odd tendency for Puerto Rico to account for around half of the total quakes.

4 minutes ago, goldminor said:

Also, only 2 of the 40 quakes sit outside of the Western Hemisphere at this time. That is unusual. Even the European quake map shows only 19 quakes globally, at the moment.

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A powerful 6.7 quake just struck in Turkey on the first day of the new moon. Stay tuned. There are two more days to this new moon period, and a secondary likely time for large quakes is 3 to 4 days after either the full or the new moons, the 29th and 30th. Meantime, Jsorrery shows that Venus and Mars are entering into opposition, and that combination has come up a number of times in conjunction with large quakes. I think that the movement of the inner planets are of greater consequence in regard to triggering larger quakes.

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2 hours ago, goldminor said:

A powerful 6.7 quake just struck in Turkey on the first day of the new moon.

Three hours alter, and the USGS daily map above 2.5 mag has yet to record another quake. The Euro map shows a few quakes below 4.0 mag since then, and a grouping of lesser quakes in Turkey. The planet has gone quiet after this very strong, likely teleseismic, quake in Turkey. I have similar over the years when teleseismic quakes strike. They can shut down moderate or stronger quakes for the rest of the planet for a period of time. I first noted this after the Great Tohoku Quake in Japan on 3/2011, when the planet went quiet except for continuous quakes striking Japan for a long time afterwards.

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The Taal volcano experienced 915 quakes today " ... A total of 915 volcanic earthquakes were plotted in Taal region as of 24 January 2020, 6:00 AM. Of which, 176 were felt, ranging from Magnitude 1.2 — 4.1 and Intensity of I — V. ...". ... https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/ndrrmc-update-situational-report-no-37-re-taal-volcano-eruption-24-january-2020

Remember my forecast about Taal somewhere above on this thread? There were also multiple strong quakes around the globe today besides the large quake in Turkey this morning. There is high planetary activity today, the Venus/Mars oppo?

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goldminor, are you there? Hope you are doing well. Your forecast of a strong earthquake towards the end of January proved to be correct. The 7.7 quake between Cuba and Jamaica was on the 28th of January. It happened very close to where the Caribbean tectonic plate meets the North America one.

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On 1/30/2020 at 12:38 AM, islander said:

goldminor, are you there?

Mostly here. Here are some interesting facts about that quake.  The last time there was a major quake in that area was on June 1692. That took place during a solar minimum, and of course during the Maunder Minimum. The moon was in its last quarter. So those are key interactions for quakes/eruptions, imo, ie: Gleissberg, solar grand minima, cardinal points of the lunar phase, and the longest lunar month of the year. Which is where the phase of the moon is entering into now. So February should be the key month for experiencing large Earth events.

Note that above I had listed an eruption at the Taal volcano as being a strong probability during this last new moon. On the 26th in the middle of this last new moon there were 915 quakes at Taal. Everyone watching thought that this was it. I view that as the interacting forces were in place to cause an eruption, a close call. Puerto Rico also had another strong 5.0+ quake at the last new moon, also close , but no cigar. Conclusion, there is merit to the thoughts I have proposed.

February is the longest synodic lunar month of this year. There are two parts to this which appear to act as triggering points. Many of past large quakes occur around this time or at the shortest lunar synodic month of the year, and a large number of great quakes occur in a week where the lunar phase has 8 days between the cardinal points of the lunar phase. That may sound odd, but it is a fact.

Health wise, I recently purchased several herbal remedies to strengthen the heart and kidneys. The products come from India, and so far the two heart related remedies have been effective in keeping my blood pressure stable. That is definitely a good result.

 

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Of interest, the 7.5 quake which devastated an important Jamaican port town in June 1692 struck seven years before the first recorded quake on the New Madrid fault on Dec 25th 1699. The full sunspot graph which starts in 1600 AD shows sunspots starting to rise right around this time. Also interesting is that the last Great Cascadia quake struck on Jan 26th of 1700, just one month after the New Madrid quake. The New Madrid quake struck 4 days after the new moon during an 8 day lunar week period. The Cascadia quake struck 6 days after the new moon during an 8 day lunar week period. I have come across many examples of great quakes striking during 8 day lunar week periods. Also, note how this fits in with my thought that the new moon of January 2020 would be a highly probable time for large quakes/eruptions, and that the prime month, imo, was always for February 2020. So just like the example above of the New Madrid and Cascadia striking one month apart after the new moon are we about to see a similar pattern now?

Global quake activity recently declined for several day recently. The last 36 hours has seen a doubling of the 24 hour rate for global quakes. These quakes are scattered across many fault zones around the globe, and not concentrated in swarms. This is a potential indicator of change, imo.  Why did the 24 hour rate double when there have been no major quakes over the last 2 days?

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Did you happen to check and see what the other planetary spheres were doing with the new moon quake theory? Just curious to know that info.

Puerto Rico’s swarming again. This Feb full moon in Leo and new moon in Pisces is quite the combo considering Uranus is in Taurus signifying the Earth and abrupt change. 

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1 hour ago, Jenn said:

Did you happen to check and see what the other planetary spheres were doing with the new moon quake theory? Just curious to know that info.

Puerto Rico’s swarming again. This Feb full moon in Leo and new moon in Pisces is quite the combo considering Uranus is in Taurus signifying the Earth and abrupt change. 

Was just looking at the distribution of quakes. Yes, PR is once again swarming. I count 22 quakes just since the start of Feb 1st, up to 13:30 UTC. As for planetary alignments, I will need to make more observations of the past as well as continuing current observations for some time to come, before attempting to make any correlation to planetary alignments influencing quakes. The entire last week of this month February is the week to pay attention to. There are some planetary alignments through that week which could have influence, especially being that the new moon intersects right through the middle of that last week. Sort of exciting to watch how this will unfold.

10 minutes ago, goldminor said:

Was just looking at the distribution of quakes. Yes, PR is once again swarming. I count 22 quakes just since the start of Feb 1st, up to 13:30 UTC. As for planetary alignments, I will need to make more observations of the past as well as continuing current observations for some time to come, before attempting to make any correlation to planetary alignments influencing quakes. The entire last week of this month February is the week to pay attention to. There are some planetary alignments through that week which could have influence, especially being that the new moon intersects right through the middle of that last week. Sort of exciting to watch how this will unfold.

Also of note imo is the 9th through the 11th as Mercury and Venus form a conjunction.

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