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theartist

Space Environment Monitor (SEM) 'Triggers' for Earthquake Alert Proxy

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Hypothesis:  Are there 'trigger' alert signal proxies for the purposes of Earthquake Forecasting in the Space Environment Monitor (SEM) data?

Here is one to consider:  A dramatic plunge in the EPEAD Electrons [those Electrons >0.8MeV (the black line) to values <10^1 e/(cm^2 s sr)] in conjunction with a sharp rise in the 'He-1' Magnetometer signal (the red line, to values >= ~100nT). 

g15_summary_20110301-00h_20110331-24h.thumb.jpg.baa5ebc5c2cb1eec5dc1e3eaa61f28df.jpg

g15_summary_20110301-00h_20110331-24h.pdf

Another example, April 2012:

g15_summary_20120401-00h_20120430-24h.thumb.jpg.8eaee2b33f41d649a2754619bdcb92e6.jpg

g15_summary_20120401-00h_20120430-24h.pdf

Earthquakes in April 2012: (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_2012)

1256984286_ScreenShot2019-07-08at3_58_37PM.thumb.png.be9213430128904619bca7414d68e805.png

 

Edited by theartist

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If one wishes to check for themselves, they can find the SEM data here:

https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/satellite/goes/dataaccess.html

Then drill-down on ./plots,

Plots.thumb.jpg.74b1d66520a69fd588df023be14f9ec5.jpg

1163423871_ScreenShot2019-07-08at6_17_58PM.png.24b5805f3512c05d360c1ad6df86a5ba.pngsatellite.jpg.232bc58d4bc6f74d3f7a0c4c656082ad.jpgSummary.jpg.835c776bc92ab136c45113ddbd6cce3b.jpgmonth.thumb.jpg.aa5c49c327076645bbb4d4b1a4e6b182.jpg

So we pull up Aug 2017 data as an example:

863351367_g15_summary_20170801-00h_20170831-24hcopy.thumb.jpg.41b24f7680718042a642cb0ca6c7356f.jpg

We find four TRIGGER ALERT signals and a chunk of MISSING DATA.  So then, we go check to see if there were any significant earthquakes that month: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_2017 

1590068916_ScreenShot2019-07-08at6_53_53PM.thumb.png.dc886dde37039086a86251219b9246f9.png

Edited by theartist

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21 hours ago, theartist said:

Hypothesis:  Are there 'trigger' alert signal proxies for the purposes of Earthquake Forecasting in the Space Environment Monitor (SEM) data?

NOTE, a more appropriate placement of this topic may in the "Geomagnetic Activity" forum(?), as trickle-down (indirect) influence on Earth's Space Environmental conditions are subject to our planet's relative positioning in the solar system amongst other matter (besides just our Sun, although solar-terrestrial interactions are of predominate focus).

Edited by theartist

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It may be nice to get some discussion on this topic. One of the first striking curiosities to the reader, may be the selection of the He-1 Magnetometer for this 'TRIGGER ALERT', rather than the Hp-1 which is the one normally presented in the Magnetometer data widely distributed to the public; for example:

2126359972_ScreenShot2019-07-09at12_14_04PM.thumb.png.be26a4b1d9fe0b76fea5e9f3efa4e6ef.png

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer

The magnetometers on the GOES satellites are triaxial, with the following definitions for the orthogonal measurements:

  • Hp:  magnetic field vector component, points northward, perpendicular to the orbit plane which for a zero degree inclination orbit is parallel to Earth's spin axis.
  • He:  magnetic field vector component, perpendicular to Hp and Hn and points earthward.
  • Hn:  magnetic field vector component, perpendicular to Hp and He and points eastward.
  • Ht:  the total field.

The He sensor response, sometimes, has a somewhat inverse response to the Hp sensor, but not always, and any inverse proportionality is certainly not linear; for example see the following:  

 

g15_magneto_1x2_1m_qc_latest14days.png

Edited by theartist

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There are a group of people currently predicting earth quakes based on geomagnetic activity. They are have increasing success. 

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Hi Nogar, I hope you can share and contribute here what you know on the topic.  I'm pretty sure what I unveil above has never been published, at least to that detail.  But I'm certainly open to being proven wrong. 

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776090369_g15_summary_20170801-00h_20170831-24hcopy.thumb.jpg.cf814c9b0cb379e2d96f15dcc97754a8.jpgg15_summary_20170901-00h_20170930-24h.thumb.jpg.5866558cdec6a07737d1c860b03a4562.jpg

Was the following (circled in blue) an eventual response to the particular type of disruptions revealed by the TRIGGER ALERTs in Aug-Sept, 2017?:EB6shL4UcAEBL3p.jpg-large.thumb.jpeg.37c0b56da29a1574d8148d780ba3767c.jpeg(source).

Below is the suggested heliospheric current sheet setup, for the outer gas giants (neglecting the detail of the inner solar system), going into the time period of those particular type of disruptions:

214925846_HCSouter9-4-17.thumb.png.5a480c44e85d9b1da623aa6bb23491ae.png2072890751_HCSouter9-4-17.thumb.png.b3f842ce99939cd6ba13f843c3d140fc.png

Edited by theartist
formatting

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Although the the wavy red lines in the above figures are somewhat inspired by Parker's famous paper, they are a 2D representation of the 3D heliospheric current sheet model, where the planetary positions fall at nodal points.

Heliospheric-current-sheet.gif.ca88cfe9fb799a8638162061ca18b8c9.gif

953910093_ScreenShot2019-08-14at4_32_55PM.thumb.png.8aac603a6e55a89c3765ec94b35a0568.png

Figure from Parker's famous paper.

 

During this time period, did the transit of Mercury perturb the heliospheric current sheet setup, and in effect, contribute to the TRIGGER ALERT perturbations?

8-4-17.thumb.jpg.80d64b37b869ae1abdb2cb6a1089f0e4.jpg8-20-17.thumb.jpg.8e03fc765bd8e1aae88414eaf02760fd.jpg9-7-17.thumb.png.2f55f4f49ffc6c11d80c508e78d75fb1.png

Edited by theartist
Rephrased last question to clarify what is being asked.

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So far in 2019, the GOES-14 has registered the discussed TRIGGER ALERT SIGNAL in the months of May, July and August; graphs for those months are shown below.

1047720493_GOES14MayTriggers.thumb.png.7403abfd73af8189e88fe26a92f30324.png

858841660_GOES14JulyTriggers.thumb.png.db721fc04d33c7c049a3eea5c2ba06af.png

306140283_GOES14AugustTriggers.thumb.png.aa185211a8d74a802f35b88f8541f7a8.png

 

So far in 2019, GOES-15 has registered the discussed TRIGGER ALERT SIGNAL in the months of May, July and August; graphs for those months are shown below.

1572676036_GOES15MayTriggers.thumb.png.9e496521f3d5864149c5a04c1589c959.png

2051885257_GOES15JulyTriggers.thumb.png.abe832aaa67904f1c6b3a743ac2592c4.png

1398745206_GOES15AugustTriggers.thumb.png.db45ad33bd3cdaf8a4d580790fe0499a.png

Edited by theartist

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