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Space Environment Monitor (SEM) 'Triggers' for Earthquake Alert Proxy

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Hypothesis:  Are there 'trigger' alert signal proxies for the purposes of Earthquake Forecasting in the Space Environment Monitor (SEM) data?

Here is one to consider:  A dramatic plunge in the EPEAD Electrons [those Electrons >0.8MeV (the black line) to values <10^1 e/(cm^2 s sr)] in conjunction with a sharp rise in the 'He-1' Magnetometer signal (the red line, to values >= ~100nT). 

g15_summary_20110301-00h_20110331-24h.thumb.jpg.baa5ebc5c2cb1eec5dc1e3eaa61f28df.jpg

g15_summary_20110301-00h_20110331-24h.pdf

Another example, April 2012:

g15_summary_20120401-00h_20120430-24h.thumb.jpg.8eaee2b33f41d649a2754619bdcb92e6.jpg

g15_summary_20120401-00h_20120430-24h.pdf

Earthquakes in April 2012: (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_2012)

1256984286_ScreenShot2019-07-08at3_58_37PM.thumb.png.be9213430128904619bca7414d68e805.png

 

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If one wishes to check for themselves, they can find the SEM data here:

https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/satellite/goes/dataaccess.html

Then drill-down on ./plots,

Plots.thumb.jpg.74b1d66520a69fd588df023be14f9ec5.jpg

1163423871_ScreenShot2019-07-08at6_17_58PM.png.24b5805f3512c05d360c1ad6df86a5ba.pngsatellite.jpg.232bc58d4bc6f74d3f7a0c4c656082ad.jpgSummary.jpg.835c776bc92ab136c45113ddbd6cce3b.jpgmonth.thumb.jpg.aa5c49c327076645bbb4d4b1a4e6b182.jpg

So we pull up Aug 2017 data as an example:

863351367_g15_summary_20170801-00h_20170831-24hcopy.thumb.jpg.41b24f7680718042a642cb0ca6c7356f.jpg

We find four TRIGGER ALERT signals and a chunk of MISSING DATA.  So then, we go check to see if there were any significant earthquakes that month: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_2017 

1590068916_ScreenShot2019-07-08at6_53_53PM.thumb.png.dc886dde37039086a86251219b9246f9.png

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21 hours ago, theartist said:

Hypothesis:  Are there 'trigger' alert signal proxies for the purposes of Earthquake Forecasting in the Space Environment Monitor (SEM) data?

NOTE, a more appropriate placement of this topic may in the "Geomagnetic Activity" forum(?), as trickle-down (indirect) influence on Earth's Space Environmental conditions are subject to our planet's relative positioning in the solar system amongst other matter (besides just our Sun, although solar-terrestrial interactions are of predominate focus).

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It may be nice to get some discussion on this topic. One of the first striking curiosities to the reader, may be the selection of the He-1 Magnetometer for this 'TRIGGER ALERT', rather than the Hp-1 which is the one normally presented in the Magnetometer data widely distributed to the public; for example:

2126359972_ScreenShot2019-07-09at12_14_04PM.thumb.png.be26a4b1d9fe0b76fea5e9f3efa4e6ef.png

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer

The magnetometers on the GOES satellites are triaxial, with the following definitions for the orthogonal measurements:

  • Hp:  magnetic field vector component, points northward, perpendicular to the orbit plane which for a zero degree inclination orbit is parallel to Earth's spin axis.
  • He:  magnetic field vector component, perpendicular to Hp and Hn and points earthward.
  • Hn:  magnetic field vector component, perpendicular to Hp and He and points eastward.
  • Ht:  the total field.

The He sensor response, sometimes, has a somewhat inverse response to the Hp sensor, but not always, and any inverse proportionality is certainly not linear; for example see the following:  

 

g15_magneto_1x2_1m_qc_latest14days.png

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There are a group of people currently predicting earth quakes based on geomagnetic activity. They are have increasing success. 

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Hi Nogar, I hope you can share and contribute here what you know on the topic.  I'm pretty sure what I unveil above has never been published, at least to that detail.  But I'm certainly open to being proven wrong. 

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776090369_g15_summary_20170801-00h_20170831-24hcopy.thumb.jpg.cf814c9b0cb379e2d96f15dcc97754a8.jpgg15_summary_20170901-00h_20170930-24h.thumb.jpg.5866558cdec6a07737d1c860b03a4562.jpg

Was the following (circled in blue) an eventual response to the particular type of disruptions revealed by the TRIGGER ALERTs in Aug-Sept, 2017?:EB6shL4UcAEBL3p.jpg-large.thumb.jpeg.37c0b56da29a1574d8148d780ba3767c.jpeg(source).

Below is the suggested heliospheric current sheet setup, for the outer gas giants (neglecting the detail of the inner solar system), going into the time period of those particular type of disruptions:

214925846_HCSouter9-4-17.thumb.png.5a480c44e85d9b1da623aa6bb23491ae.png2072890751_HCSouter9-4-17.thumb.png.b3f842ce99939cd6ba13f843c3d140fc.png

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Although the the wavy red lines in the above figures are somewhat inspired by Parker's famous paper, they are a 2D representation of the 3D heliospheric current sheet model, where the planetary positions fall at nodal points.

Heliospheric-current-sheet.gif.ca88cfe9fb799a8638162061ca18b8c9.gif

953910093_ScreenShot2019-08-14at4_32_55PM.thumb.png.8aac603a6e55a89c3765ec94b35a0568.png

Figure from Parker's famous paper.

 

During this time period, did the transit of Mercury perturb the heliospheric current sheet setup, and in effect, contribute to the TRIGGER ALERT perturbations?

8-4-17.thumb.jpg.80d64b37b869ae1abdb2cb6a1089f0e4.jpg8-20-17.thumb.jpg.8e03fc765bd8e1aae88414eaf02760fd.jpg9-7-17.thumb.png.2f55f4f49ffc6c11d80c508e78d75fb1.png

Edited by theartist
Rephrased last question to clarify what is being asked.
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So far in 2019, the GOES-14 has registered the discussed TRIGGER ALERT SIGNAL in the months of May, July and August; graphs for those months are shown below.

1047720493_GOES14MayTriggers.thumb.png.7403abfd73af8189e88fe26a92f30324.png

858841660_GOES14JulyTriggers.thumb.png.db721fc04d33c7c049a3eea5c2ba06af.png

306140283_GOES14AugustTriggers.thumb.png.aa185211a8d74a802f35b88f8541f7a8.png

 

So far in 2019, GOES-15 has registered the discussed TRIGGER ALERT SIGNAL in the months of May, July and August; graphs for those months are shown below.

1572676036_GOES15MayTriggers.thumb.png.9e496521f3d5864149c5a04c1589c959.png

2051885257_GOES15JulyTriggers.thumb.png.abe832aaa67904f1c6b3a743ac2592c4.png

1398745206_GOES15AugustTriggers.thumb.png.db45ad33bd3cdaf8a4d580790fe0499a.png

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On 7/8/2019 at 1:45 PM, theartist said:

Hypothesis:  Are there 'trigger' alert signal proxies for the purposes of Earthquake Forecasting in the Space Environment Monitor (SEM) data?

Here is one to consider:  A dramatic plunge in the EPEAD Electrons [those Electrons >0.8MeV (the black line) to values <10^1 e/(cm^2 s sr)] in conjunction with a sharp rise in the 'He-1' Magnetometer signal (the red line, to values >= ~100nT). 

g15_summary_20110301-00h_20110331-24h.thumb.jpg.baa5ebc5c2cb1eec5dc1e3eaa61f28df.jpg

g15_summary_20110301-00h_20110331-24h.pdf 1.57 MB · 0 downloads

Another example, April 2012:

g15_summary_20120401-00h_20120430-24h.thumb.jpg.8eaee2b33f41d649a2754619bdcb92e6.jpg

g15_summary_20120401-00h_20120430-24h.pdf 1.58 MB · 0 downloads

Earthquakes in April 2012: (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_2012)

1256984286_ScreenShot2019-07-08at3_58_37PM.thumb.png.be9213430128904619bca7414d68e805.png

 

This will keep me busy for a bit, thanks for sharing. I have mainly been looking at lunar correlations in regards to large quakes, but have wondered about solar influences as well. I made a prediction in March of this year that I saw a strong probability for a large quake on the New Madrid Seismic Zone in the middle of this winter. Here were the clues which I used, I should do a rewrite to improve the flow of ideas. ... https://goldminor.wordpress.com/2019/04/16/new-madrid-fault-zone-2019-prediction/

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Immediately, I load up jsOrrery to check-out the first example from that blog: "The first major quake recorded on the New Madrid was at 1pm on December 25th of 1699...This happened during the Maunder Minimum, and also during the latter stage of a solar minimum."

12-25-1699.thumb.jpg.8f484e97c1e4178234c279ba04334389.jpg

On that date, Earth is entering a Jupiter/Uranus superior conjunction.  I discuss a Jupiter/Uranus superior conjunction setup which coincided with a revival of activity in the decline of SC24 in the thread titled,  "Stochastic influence on solar cycle activity: planetary clocking?".

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4 hours ago, theartist said:

Immediately, I load up jsOrrery to check-out the first example from that blog: "The first major quake recorded on the New Madrid was at 1pm on December 25th of 1699...This happened during the Maunder Minimum, and also during the latter stage of a solar minimum."

12-25-1699.thumb.jpg.8f484e97c1e4178234c279ba04334389.jpg

On that date, Earth is entering a Jupiter/Uranus superior conjunction.  I discuss a Jupiter/Uranus superior conjunction setup which coincided with a revival of activity in the decline of SC24 in the thread titled,  "Stochastic influence on solar cycle activity: planetary clocking?".

I am glad that I decided to interact here. I feel a bit awakened out of a slumber, but this normally takes place around Feb/March or more recently late January; but never this early except for back in the 1960s. What you are showing me makes great sense to me. You see my unusual approach. A weak area for me has always been my limited comprehension of space and cosmological effects. Just recently I have strengthened my grasp of lunar/earthquake correlations to a degree where I think I have a foothold which could lead to a beginning level of predictivity, potentially. Obviously, I will have to be able to make correct predictions to back up such a claim, but you are of immense help to me with the visuals which you present.

 

I have followed the daily quake map ever since the Great Tohoku Quake. That is how the understanding of some lunar connections to quakes set in. Interesting note is that there are only two quake zones which I have found over the years which appear to have cycles. The NMSZ is one, and the other is the Cascadia Fault Zone.

5 hours ago, goldminor said:

This will keep me busy for a bit, thanks for sharing. I have mainly been looking at lunar correlations in regards to large quakes, but have wondered about solar influences as well. I made a prediction in March of this year that I saw a strong probability for a large quake on the New Madrid Seismic Zone in the middle of this winter. Here were the clues which I used, I should do a rewrite to improve the flow of ideas. ... https://goldminor.wordpress.com/2019/04/16/new-madrid-fault-zone-2019-prediction/

Here we go, another example just occurred several hours ago. The Northern Philippines got hit by a strong 6.8 with 10 strong aftershocks so far. Look at what this page shows for changes in solar functions in the hours leading up to the quake, ... http://www2.irf.se/Observatory/?link=Magnetometers

And an even better example, the quake struck at 6:11 UTC. Look at the Y and Z magnetometer readings from Canada, ... https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/magnetometers#Kiruna

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6 hours ago, goldminor said:

Here we go, another example just occurred several hours ago. The Northern Philippines got hit by a strong 6.8 with 10 strong aftershocks so far. Look at what this page shows for changes in solar functions in the hours leading up to the quake, ... http://www2.irf.se/Observatory/?link=Magnetometers

And an even better example, the quake struck at 6:11 UTC. Look at the Y and Z magnetometer readings from Canada, ... https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/magnetometers#Kiruna

Wow.  There may actually be something to this.  

7 hours ago, goldminor said:

A weak area for me has always been my limited comprehension of space and cosmological effects.

I'm a student, and my theories evolve with greater understanding.  The electromagnetic forces are on the order of 10^38 times greater than the gravitational force.  

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7 hours ago, goldminor said:

I am glad that I decided to interact here. I feel a bit awakened out of a slumber, but this normally takes place around Feb/March or more recently late January; but never this early except for back in the 1960s. What you are showing me makes great sense to me. You see my unusual approach. A weak area for me has always been my limited comprehension of space and cosmological effects. Just recently I have strengthened my grasp of lunar/earthquake correlations to a degree where I think I have a foothold which could lead to a beginning level of predictivity, potentially. Obviously, I will have to be able to make correct predictions to back up such a claim, but you are of immense help to me with the visuals which you present.

 

I have followed the daily quake map ever since the Great Tohoku Quake. That is how the understanding of some lunar connections to quakes set in. Interesting note is that there are only two quake zones which I have found over the years which appear to have cycles. The NMSZ is one, and the other is the Cascadia Fault Zone.

Here we go, another example just occurred several hours ago. The Northern Philippines got hit by a strong 6.8 with 10 strong aftershocks so far. Look at what this page shows for changes in solar functions in the hours leading up to the quake, ... http://www2.irf.se/Observatory/?link=Magnetometers

And an even better example, the quake struck at 6:11 UTC. Look at the Y and Z magnetometer readings from Canada, ... https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/magnetometers#Kiruna

Same story for me. The Japan quake as well as the Chile quake alerted me to find out all I could about solar weather which I’m still educating myself with amongst many other things. 😂 

I’m not interested in graphs and data for the most part (sorry y’all)  only because it hasn’t proven anything yet with the Sun/Earthquake predictability. With that said it does seem indicative in this instance to be something to take note of. 
 

I notice and feel patterns. I can predict without knowing the science which bothers me. Like for instance we know Vanuatu has earthquakes all the time however when the solar density interacts with our magnetosphere it does become a precursor within a 24 hour period time to a bigger earthquake in the world. Sounds crazy maybe to some but for me Im alert to patterns.
 

I can’t make out if this (Sun) is a calm before a massive storm or what, but big change is in the air!!! 
 

I suspect there will be a transfer of energy meaning another 6+ after the 6.8 in Philippines or they will get hit with a bigger quake. Pressure has been building the last few days though so I don’t believe it’s over. 

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3 hours ago, Jenn said:

I’m not interested in graphs and data for the most part (sorry y’all)  only because it hasn’t proven anything yet with the Sun/Earthquake predictability. With that said it does seem indicative in this instance to be something to take note of. 

Wait a minute...was there anything in "this instance"?  I just checked the GOES 14 and GOES 15 data (the consolidated plots typically come out around 17:30 UTC on the following day) and there was nothing I see unusual in them: https://satdat.ngdc.noaa.gov/sem/goes/data/plots/latest/goes14/g14_summary_latest14days.pdf. There certainly was not the 'Trigger Alert' signal I discuss in this thread.

"Graphs and data" are absolutely going to be essential to draw any conclusions on scientific correlation, which is a necessary prerequisite before useful 'predictability' can be established.

3 hours ago, Jenn said:

Like for instance we know Vanuatu has earthquakes all the time however when the solar density interacts with our magnetosphere

Solar wind is always interacting with our magnetosphere and earthquakes are always going off somewhere on planet earth.  So what do you mean, in more explicit terms, when you say "solar density interacts with our magnetosphere"?  The measured space weather parameters seem to indicate nothing unusual in this case, at least nothing deviating from the norm.  Goldminor is citing a case where an earth-based magnetometer pre-registered a signal, which is a different matter, and I don't doubt that there very well may be some scientific significance there.  But unfortunately, when I said "There may actually be something to this.", I probably should have been more careful with my words, because it threw confusion into the mix, conflating two different phenomenon.

 

11 hours ago, goldminor said:

Just recently I have strengthened my grasp of lunar/earthquake correlations to a degree where I think I have a foothold which could lead to a beginning level of predictivity, potentially.

I would strongly suspect a lunar/earthquake correlation to be based on effects governed (primarily) by the force of gravity.  But when it comes to understanding the sun's discharge of plasma (as well as electromagnetic radiant energy), I think electromagnetic forces take precedence, considerably so, over the gravitational force.  That said, one might hypothesize that the lunar/earth interaction can somehow interact/disturb/interfere with the sun's solar wind energy...but if so, we should be able to pick that interaction up with sensors, in order to make rational scientific sense out of it.

11 hours ago, goldminor said:

And an even better example, the quake struck at 6:11 UTC. Look at the Y and Z magnetometer readings from Canada, ... https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/magnetometers#Kiruna

There is some confusion here (including on my part, sorry), because Goldminor is looking at sensors taken right off of a "spaceweather" website.  

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16 hours ago, theartist said:

Wow.  There may actually be something to this.  

I'm a student, and my theories evolve with greater understanding.  The electromagnetic forces are on the order of 10^38 times greater than the gravitational force.  

Have spent the day going over potential correlations using jsOrrery. Looks very very interesting. I started with a list of 19 of the largest quakes since 2000. Of that number 11 showed planetary correlations, ie: Jupiter 6 times, Mercury 6 times, and Saturn 4 times, plus several other planets interacted with some of that number. Then I took a look at my list of 7 New Madrid Seismic Zone quakes, along with 3 quakes on the nearby Wabash fault. EVERYONE was correlated. Amazing. Even the 3 Wabash quakes which were more surprising. than strong. Of those 10 quakes six have Jupiter involved, 7 with Saturn, 5 with Mercury, 1 with Uranus.

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Goldminor, the correlation you have shown between ground-based magnetometers and earthquakes I think is a HUGE finding. I'm just a casual quake-watcher, and one of the reasons I stumbled upon the marker in the SEM data (discussed originally in this thread) a while back may have been due to my wanting to investigate for myself after hearing fantastical claims that were being made elsewhere on the net regarding how the sun causes earthquakes.  I haven't investigated the literature to know whether geophysicists are already all-over what you uncovered.  If not, why not?  It seems your finding possibly could be coupled with seismometer readings into some type of early-warning system.

The sun-quake connection is much more tenuous.  The planetary alignment relationship to quakes, at this point is fascinating, but I really don't know how concrete it is.  The marker I discuss in this thread is a curiosity, and I think it too needs further investigation by more interested parties to try and understand what is 'special' (i.e., what actually is going on) when the GOES earthward facing magnetometer sensors register those large spikes.

But what I think should definitely demand much more attention by scientists at this point (if it hasn't already) is your finding on a relationship between ground-based magnetometers and earthquakes.

7 hours ago, goldminor said:

Have spent the day going over potential correlations using jsOrrery. Looks very very interesting. I started with a list of 19 of the largest quakes since 2000. Of that number 11 showed planetary correlations,

Wait until you try it for historical flares and space weather storms, and you'll quickly come away thinking there are way too many coincidences, and wondering why are scientists not investigating this already?!?😆

Edited by theartist

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5 hours ago, theartist said:

Goldminor, the correlation you have shown between ground-based magnetometers and earthquakes I think is a HUGE finding. I'm just a casual quake-watcher, and one of the reasons I stumbled upon the marker in the SEM data (discussed originally in this thread) a while back may have been due to my wanting to investigate for myself after hearing fantastical claims that were being made elsewhere on the net regarding how the sun causes earthquakes.  I haven't investigated the literature to know whether geophysicists are already all-over what you uncovered.  If not, why not?  It seems your finding possibly could be coupled with seismometer readings into some type of early-warning system.

The sun-quake connection is much more tenuous.  The planetary alignment relationship to quakes, at this point is fascinating, but I really don't know how concrete it is.  The marker I discuss in this thread is a curiosity, and I think it too needs further investigation by more interested parties to try and understand what is 'special' (i.e., what actually is going on) when the GOES earthward facing magnetometer sensors register those large spikes.

But what I think should definitely demand much more attention by scientists at this point (if it hasn't already) is your finding on a relationship between ground-based magnetometers and earthquakes.

Wait until you try it for historical flares and space weather storms, and you'll quickly come away thinking there are way too many coincidences, and wondering why are scientists not investigating this already?!?😆

Take a look at 4/18/1906, the Great San Francisco 1906 quake. I think you have misinterpreted what I said above. When I was saying that every NMSZ quake is correlated I was saying correlated with planetary alignments. Just like the 1906 quake and 11 out of 19 of the largest quakes of the last 20 years. The sun/quake correlation is alive and well. I am going to prove this to all of us by making predictions between now and March for the most likely days to experience a large quake. I fully expect that we will have some. Although it is doubtful that I can pin where with the exception of an NMSZ quake.

 

You point out that the solar/quake connection is tenuous. That is become there are other moving parts to the process which I haven't discussed here as of yet. Imo, the rest of the conditions are in place, and due to the current location of Jupiter there is a strong probability that the time is now. I met up with you just in time. The jsOrrery site was the last key which I needed to flesh out my thoughts. In general I would never comment on a site of this nature as while I may have the mind of a scientist, I did not complete my schooling. I have my limits which I recognize.

Yes, the magnetometer was interesting. Here is another example I noticed the other day, on the 16th. This time using Stackplot(Europe). There was an increase in activity above the average for around 3 hours starting around 19:30 UTC. Looking at the USGS daily quake map The quakes within that time span ranged from the minimal 2.5 mag to the low 5+. So nothing out of the ordinary right? Wrong, then I took note of the high quake count over the hours where the magnetometer disruption was happening. By coincidence the rate of quakes had doubled as compared to before. There were 15 quakes in that period of time. Looking back to earlier hours the quake rate was running at a more typical 8 quakes in that same time span. One of the parameters which I use in assessing the daily quake map is what has the 24 hour rate been. That rate was just up into the low 60s (2.5 quakes per hour average). Typically the 24 hour rate has been running around the mid 30s/24 hours (1.5 quakes per hour). There is variation in the 24 hour quake count over the course of every week in relation to the cardinal points of the lunar cycle. So when the magnetometer disruption occurred that may have been the reason why the rate skyrocketed to 4 to 5 quakes per hour, a high rate. In the next 3 hours after the magnetometer reading settled down the quake rate dropped back to 8 over the next 3 hours. That is a new and interesting observation, imo.

 

Note

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Here is an interesting look using GeoMag plots versus the daily quake map of 2.5 mag or greater on USGS. The daily map is showing 15 quakes in bold (quakes which are rated as stronger). Of those 15 strong quakes 12 of then are correlated to lows and/or heightened activity with the GeoMag plot for the 16th.

GeomagPlots 12 16 19  ..  12.15 correlation.png

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14 minutes ago, goldminor said:

ere is an interesting look using GeoMag plots

Excellent.  If you check their Alaska observatory data around the Nov 24th date, you will see they registered big wonkiness before the >6 magnitude quake in Alaska on Nov 24.

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Here are 2 examples of stronger quakes (both 4.9 mag) at 6:07 and 6:45 coinciding with magnetometer reading movements. Your Canada graphs clearly shows activity at the right time for these quakes. ... Canadian_CANMOS.png

1 hour ago, noobsauce said:

I think Artist hypothesis is correct. Terrestrial quakes likely have galactic/ solar origins. The planetary alignment portion proposed by goldminor may have some correlation in regards to planetary magnetic filaments connecting the sun to the planets (news release put out by NASA on a filament connecting Saturn discovery available by internet search engine) which affects magnetosphere of the Sun and possibly planetary gravity on a macro scale. Artist’s SOHO data increased proton velocity/density, increased electron voltage and occurence within the solar cycle to name afew external players have to be accounted. Terrestrial factors such as plate tectonics, a dynamic iron/nickle dynamo in the Earth core (connection to magnetic field strength) and lunar gravity ameliorating the Earth crust/ mantle are obvious mechanisms which must be accounted for.  The difficulty lies in the current computational complexities required to makes sense of all the data and thus a current requirement for over simplifying equations as a result ( reported by others). O/T but perhaps computer artificial intelligence will be able to connect everything eventually and open our eyes/ ears/ hearts/minds and the possibilities of new technologies allowing humanity new perspective.

The planetary alignment correlation is only one piece of the puzzle. I think I am closer to understanding this, but it will take some successful predictions which are coming around soon. The first is Dec 26th to the 30th, Jupiter in opposition. Plus a New Moon. Plus here we are in a long solar minimum, and perhaps also within one of the longer scale cooling cycles, a Gleissberg? These are all conditions which are needed for the New Madrid to let go.

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@ noobsauce ... there is a theory that Saturn and Jupiter can affect the core of the sun with their movements, and cause it to shift slightly from center. These are gravitational forces, and perhaps some electromagnetic elements which are not understood. Above I had posted the day 4/18/1906 as an interesting example of how planetary alignments look like they can potentially be the trigger for great quakes. That date is the Great San Francisco Quake, and there is quite an interesting alignment of planets.

jsOrrery   Javascript Solar System Simulator 1906 SF Quake 12 17 19.png

22 hours ago, theartist said:

Excellent.  If you check their Alaska observatory data around the Nov 24th date, you will see they registered big wonkiness before the >6 magnitude quake in Alaska on Nov 24.

The rate for quakes has skyrocketed to 93/24hour today from 50 to 60 over the last 2 days. Normally a jump to such high numbers occur as a result of a major quake triggering a cascade of aftershocks. That is not what is happening here. The quakes are widely scattered, and for the first time I wonder, if this is related to the heightened activity shown on magnetometers recently. Let me share an interesting observation from my years of watching the daily quake map. A number of years ago I came to the conclusion that when Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands start ringing like a bell that this is a signal. Of what I never knew, but I now have an inkling. Currently PR/VI small quakes constitute around 2/3rds of the 96 quakes shown on USGS.

 

Now for the first time I wonder if this is a signal of the approaching opposition alignment with Jupiter and Saturn. And the heightened potential for a great quake because of this constitutes the final triggering.  The Jupiter alignment will position around the 26th along with the New Moon while we are in solar minimum. If any of my thoughts on this have merit, then there should be a significant quake (strong 6.0+ or greater) striking between the 25th through the 30th of December. Oddly enough or maybe not so oddly, two of the largest quakes since 2000 have occurred on Dec 26th. Think about that in regards to what I am saying might take place in the near future.

Current planetary alignments show the looming opposition with first Jupiter on Dec 26th and a New Moon, and then Saturn plus Mercury on 1/12/2020 which will coincide with a Full Moon. Then what looks to me to be a high probability time is in late January 2020 and the conjunction with Mercury at the New Moon on 1/26/2020. A large quake on the New Madrid in the middle of a cold winter would bring great misery to many. So there are my 3 highest ranked time periods for the possibility of a great quake.

jsOrrery   Javascript Solar System Simulator 1..12...2020 alignment.png

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On 12/16/2019 at 7:18 AM, theartist said:

The sun-quake connection is much more tenuous.

Don't interpret this that I'm saying any hypothesis about a sun-quake connection is weak.  What I meant was that a connection between ground-based magnetometers and quakes is, relatively speaking, a much more sound, physically understood proposition.  

Is it not reasonable to think that a ground-based magnetometer could register earth-core-magma movements that are not necessarily the result of an abnormal sun-earth connection at that instance?

Jesterface said something over on his 'CME research' thread that I have not yet looked into, but is confounding at the moment; he said, "The MESSENGER satellite made a pass by Earth with with a strength of 20600nT". 

Edited by theartist
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2 minutes ago, theartist said:

Don't interpret this that I'm saying any hypothesis about a sun-quake connection is weak.  What I meant was that a connection between ground-based magnetometers and quakes is, relatively speaking, a much more sound, physically understood proposition.  

I have been at it all day looking at past alignments and cross comparing. Here are some of the highly interesting correlations. First compare 1812/02/07 with 1906/4/17. Note the similarity particularly with the Inner Planets. It then occurred to me to see what would happen if the interval between 1812 and 1906 represented a pattern/cycle. You can find out by looking at 6/18/2000, 7/20/2094, and 5/13 3084.

1812 Feb 6th Planetary Align 12 17 19.png

1906 Mar 17th Planetary Align 12 17 19.png

7 minutes ago, goldminor said:

I have been at it all day looking at past alignments and cross comparing. Here are some of the highly interesting correlations. First compare 1812/02/07 with 1906/4/17. Note the similarity particularly with the Inner Planets. It then occurred to me to see what would happen if the interval between 1812 and 1906 represented a pattern/cycle. You can find out by looking at 6/18/2000, 7/20/2094, and 5/13 3084.

1812 Feb 6th Planetary Align 12 17 19.png

1906 Mar 17th Planetary Align 12 17 19.png

 

20 minutes ago, theartist said:

Don't interpret this that I'm saying any hypothesis about a sun-quake connection is weak.  What I meant was that a connection between ground-based magnetometers and quakes is, relatively speaking, a much more sound, physically understood proposition.  

After discussing the potential 94 year pattern It dawned on me to look in the other direction. Look at 2/18/1716.

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