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theartist

Space Environment Monitor (SEM) 'Triggers' for Earthquake Alert Proxy

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Hypothesis:  Are there 'trigger' alert signal proxies for the purposes of Earthquake Forecasting in the Space Environment Monitor (SEM) data?

Here is one to consider:  A dramatic plunge in the EPEAD Electrons [those Electrons >0.8MeV (the black line) to values <10^1 e/(cm^2 s sr)] in conjunction with a sharp rise in the 'He-1' Magnetometer signal (the red line, to values >= ~100nT). 

g15_summary_20110301-00h_20110331-24h.thumb.jpg.baa5ebc5c2cb1eec5dc1e3eaa61f28df.jpg

g15_summary_20110301-00h_20110331-24h.pdf

Another example, April 2012:

g15_summary_20120401-00h_20120430-24h.thumb.jpg.8eaee2b33f41d649a2754619bdcb92e6.jpg

g15_summary_20120401-00h_20120430-24h.pdf

Earthquakes in April 2012: (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_2012)

1256984286_ScreenShot2019-07-08at3_58_37PM.thumb.png.be9213430128904619bca7414d68e805.png

 

Edited by theartist

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If one wishes to check for themselves, they can find the SEM data here:

https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/satellite/goes/dataaccess.html

Then drill-down on ./plots,

Plots.thumb.jpg.74b1d66520a69fd588df023be14f9ec5.jpg

1163423871_ScreenShot2019-07-08at6_17_58PM.png.24b5805f3512c05d360c1ad6df86a5ba.pngsatellite.jpg.232bc58d4bc6f74d3f7a0c4c656082ad.jpgSummary.jpg.835c776bc92ab136c45113ddbd6cce3b.jpgmonth.thumb.jpg.aa5c49c327076645bbb4d4b1a4e6b182.jpg

So we pull up Aug 2017 data as an example:

863351367_g15_summary_20170801-00h_20170831-24hcopy.thumb.jpg.41b24f7680718042a642cb0ca6c7356f.jpg

We find four TRIGGER ALERT signals and a chunk of MISSING DATA.  So then, we go check to see if there were any significant earthquakes that month: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_2017 

1590068916_ScreenShot2019-07-08at6_53_53PM.thumb.png.dc886dde37039086a86251219b9246f9.png

Edited by theartist

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21 hours ago, theartist said:

Hypothesis:  Are there 'trigger' alert signal proxies for the purposes of Earthquake Forecasting in the Space Environment Monitor (SEM) data?

NOTE, a more appropriate placement of this topic may in the "Geomagnetic Activity" forum(?), as trickle-down (indirect) influence on Earth's Space Environmental conditions are subject to our planet's relative positioning in the solar system amongst other matter (besides just our Sun, although solar-terrestrial interactions are of predominate focus).

Edited by theartist

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It may be nice to get some discussion on this topic. One of the first striking curiosities to the reader, may be the selection of the He-1 Magnetometer for this 'TRIGGER ALERT', rather than the Hp-1 which is the one normally presented in the Magnetometer data widely distributed to the public; for example:

2126359972_ScreenShot2019-07-09at12_14_04PM.thumb.png.be26a4b1d9fe0b76fea5e9f3efa4e6ef.png

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer

The magnetometers on the GOES satellites are triaxial, with the following definitions for the orthogonal measurements:

  • Hp:  magnetic field vector component, points northward, perpendicular to the orbit plane which for a zero degree inclination orbit is parallel to Earth's spin axis.
  • He:  magnetic field vector component, perpendicular to Hp and Hn and points earthward.
  • Hn:  magnetic field vector component, perpendicular to Hp and He and points eastward.
  • Ht:  the total field.

The He sensor response, sometimes, has a somewhat inverse response to the Hp sensor, but not always, and any inverse proportionality is certainly not linear; for example see the following:  

 

g15_magneto_1x2_1m_qc_latest14days.png

Edited by theartist

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There are a group of people currently predicting earth quakes based on geomagnetic activity. They are have increasing success. 

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Hi Nogar, I hope you can share and contribute here what you know on the topic.  I'm pretty sure what I unveil above has never been published, at least to that detail.  But I'm certainly open to being proven wrong. 

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