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theartist

Solar Cycle 25 has already "started".

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On 6/29/2019 at 5:02 AM, Marcel de Bont said:

It does not mean SC25 has started as SC24 and SC25 groups will continue to appear even if SC25 starts but its always nice to see signs of SC25.

Thank you for chiming in, Marcel.  Yes, I agree, these spots in themselves do not mean we have already crossed the 'official' Solar Minimum (i.e., the "Start" to SC25).  I mainly am relying upon the 'Bremen Metric' to think that we are, but I'm seeing other tell-tale signs, that are not yet as conclusive.  Nonetheless, will the 'Bremen Metric' break down this cycle?  We will eventually find out.  If it does, that will take months to find out, and it would mean then we are in for a very long prolonged solar minimum period.

On 6/29/2019 at 5:02 AM, Marcel de Bont said:

All I am hoping for is a short minimum that would increase the chances of SC25 being stronger than SC24.

Scientifically, I'm ambivalent.  I just want to understand the science better, and see what the evidence is suggesting.  However, for now, I think you are going to get your wish.  If the 'Bremen Metric' does hold up, then maybe it could turn out to be a useful indicator in the future.

I'm not sure if you folks are yet aware, but another SC25 sunspot (tentative) emerged on the solar disk today! 😎

latest_1024_HMIIF-4.thumb.jpg.d2c1f69301efd56db320723cab2be050.jpg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjLgdnqw53U

Edited by theartist

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A brand new SC25 sunspot emerged on the disk today!  It's in the
southern hemisphere!  


Let's see if it grows up!😎

latest_1024_0304-2.thumb.jpg.0e5a7604d578f0ab831e9526d2bb798b.jpg

 

Op 6/7/2019 om 20:12, theartist zei:

A brand new SC25 sunspot emerged on the disk today! 

After many days of flat X-ray flux, we are getting some bumps today, and I think it is coming from that new SC25 sunspot area!

goes-xray-flux-6-hour-7.gif

Op 6/7/2019 om 20:12, theartist zei:

A brand new SC25 sunspot emerged on the disk today!

You can see it SPEWING PLASMA!

 

Edited by theartist

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754551394_ScreenShot2019-08-05at1_56_53PM.thumb.png.8cd90c060190ee572dd212c408f14c09.png
National Astronomical Observatory of Japan   @naoj_taiyo Follow  More Infrared polarized image taken on August 5th today, there is a black and white pair showing a magnetic field in a place surrounded by a blue circle. The upper right one is in the northern hemisphere and is white-black (N pole-S pole) from the west (right) side, and the lower left one is in the southern hemisphere, black-white (S pole-N pole). This is a feature of the 25th cycle.(source)

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On 6/11/2019 at 6:51 AM, theartist said:

The ”Bremen Metric” indicates that the 'Belgium sunspot counters' will eventually conclude (through their calculation of the weighted-smoothing-average of monthly sunspots) that the ’Start’ of SC25 happened in or before the month of January 2019. [Note, to be completely fair to the ”Bremen Metric”, one would actually need to do a more precise plot of the smoothed-average data I show in my video. It might be more accurate, when using the ”Bremen Metric”, to say that the ’Start’ of the next cycle happens in or before a 1-3 month period centered around the point I show on the graph at 2min10sec of my video (EDIT: @1:55 of the compressed video). Thus, that would mean the 'Belgium sunspot counters' will eventually conclude (through their calculation) that the ’Start’ of SC25 happened in or before a period defined as mid-November 2018 to mid-February 2019.]

This metric, as currently written, will be violated, unless there is a substantial increase in sunspot activity by the end of Sept 2019.  If there is not, then Solar Minimum (per determination by the averaging explained here) will not happen earlier than March 2019.

Edited by theartist

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The following figure was taken from this thread.  It is a scientific curiosity as to why the Bremen Composite (prematurely?) indicates an upturn into Solar Cycle 25, while the Lyman-Alpha Composite, as yet, does not.

1928258856_SC2425LAMGiismoothed.thumb.png.145e36ac5c5c78b85ae97b2807cb7880.png

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There is little doubt that the current cycle structure is somewhat unusual; determining the start/finish points may present some unusual challenges. We can see from the Butterfly Diagram that the quiet period between cycles 23 and 24 is rather quieter than any period since the early 1900’s and initial assessment of this factor would indicate that the period between 24 and 25 may be even quieter.

However, perhaps a better indicator of the unusual nature of the present situation may be obtained from analysis of the ‘Ap’ data, which shows up some highly anomalous behaviour over the last cycle. This behaviour, if continued, could make cycle 25 more than a little ‘different’.

If I may offer https://howtheatmosphereworks.wordpress.com/ap-index-historical-analysis/ this may give some insight into the situation.

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Twitter feed "Engineer Irene Quiroz" has been occasionally tracking solar prominences, which seem to be increasing in number and frequency, another sign we have possibly crossed the solar minimum nadir:

1667887659_ScreenShot2019-09-01at6_11_45AM.thumb.png.d5ef8b62cceefb641db9852ccea98773.png

 (source)

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