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theartist

Solar Cycle 25 has already "started".

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Solar Cycle 25 has already "started", at least, that is my conclusion according to a metric I uncovered in the 'Bremen Composite MG II, Index Time Series'http://lasp.colorado.edu/lisird/data/bremen_composite_mgii/.

For now, I refer to this metric as the "Bremen Metric", and I reveal it in the following video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7H7vnIIWpQ

 

The ”Bremen Metric” I uncovered does not actually indicate in which specific month that “solar minimum” (i.e., the official ’Start’ of the next solar cycle, as defined by the 'Belgium sunspot counters') occurred. It just informs us that it has already passed. The ”Bremen Metric” indicates that the 'Belgium sunspot counters' will eventually conclude (through their calculation of the weighted-smoothing-average of monthly sunspots) that the ’Start’ of SC25 happened in or before the month of January 2019. [Note, to be completely fair to the ”Bremen Metric”, one would actually need to do a more precise plot of the smoothed-average data I show in my video. It might be more accurate, when using the ”Bremen Metric”, to say that the ’Start’ of the next cycle happens in or before a 1-3 month period centered around the point I show on the graph at 2min10sec of my video. Thus, that would mean the 'Belgium sunspot counters' will eventually conclude (through their calculation) that the ’Start’ of SC25 happened in or before a period defined as mid-November 2018 to mid-February 2019.]

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One way we can compare the characteristics of solar minimums is to simply look at their respective "Smoothed minimum ISN", and that value is provided in the third column of the chart found in the List_of_solar_cycles Wikipedia article. Below are the numbers going back to the end of Cycle 19:

Minimum between........Date of Minimum............Smoothed minimum ISN

SC 19/20.........................1964 October..............................14.3

SC 20/21..........................1976 March................................17.8

SC 21/22........................1986 September...........................13.5

SC 22/23..........................1996 August...............................11.2

SC 23/24..........................2008 December...........................2.2

SC 24/25........................(to be determined)...........(6.6 as of Apr 2019)*

* 6.6 is computed for 2018 August; 6.1 is projected for 2019 January. These two values were garnered from the table titled "Monthly solar cycle data" found at    http://www.solen.info/solar/    .

We can see from the above data that if the SC 24/25 transition has already occurred, the current minimum period, based on this simple metric, is less-active than four of the previous five cycles.

Edited by theartist

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Very interesting about the Bremen Metric, that was something I haven't seen yet and is indeed interesting. The "Belgian sunspot counters" of the SIDC predicted the minimum to occur between July 2019 and September 2020. 

Time will tell when it has started 😉 

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46 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

 The "Belgian sunspot counters" of the SIDC predicted the minimum to occur between July 2019 and September 2020. 

"Given the previous minimum in December 2008, this thus corresponds to a duration for cycle 24 between 10.6 and 11.75 years. This thus also means that the activity is expected to decline further over the coming months."  http://sidc.be/silso/node/152

However, we know that a 'full-cycle' (pertaining to the solar magnetic dynamo) is actually ~22 years in duration. Thus, simply adding 22 years to the previous full-cycle minimum in September 1986 projects the latest minimum to November 2018.   Interesting, eh?  🙂

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I peeked back over here this morning, and looking at my last statement above, I'm not sure how I came up with "November of 2018"?  😜 That should have read "September 2018" (from simply adding 22 years to September 1986).  I apologize Sander Vancanneyt for any confusion that gaffe caused.  😑

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We’ll see who’s right :P 

do note this quote of j. Janssens: “The timing is mostly determined by the strength of the new cycle: more active cycles tend to start their rise earlier”

if we take current sc25 prediction into account, I don’t think sc25 has started. I would be glad if it didn’t take as long as previous solar minimum 😫

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🥴I guess my mistakes are being put out there to see if anybody (including me?☺️) is awake here.  Let's try this again.  The last minimum ~22 years ago was MAY 1996. Thus, simply adding 22 years to that value means the SC 24/25 minimum was due in MAY 2018.  That means we are way overdue! 😳 It is already in the past by that metric.  🤪

 

Let's see what the July 2019 round of sunspots look like.  😎

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