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Phil Halper

Coronal Hole Forecast

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How far ahead can a coronal hole be forecast? I notice there is one this week forecast for Wed according to the Spaceweather.com website. But the SWPC are forecasting only kp 3 for Wed night. So Im confused. Can anyone shed light on this. I usually try and head up to Scandiavia from England for the equinox and trying to decide whether to try and chase Wed nights Coronal hole or wait for the weekend when other can join me.  I have not heard of a further coronal hole beyond this one, but does that mean there can't be one for the weekend or can they not be forecast that far out? I notice this most recent CH was only forecast 4 days before it was initially expected to impact. 

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More or less every 14 days, but because each coronal hole expands or closes it can’t be forecasted very long upfront. If you look at the 28 day forecast of Kp you can have an idea when they’ll be around. Every coronal hole is different, so the possible range of activity can be different too so the strength of a coronal hole can’t be predicted too long upfront too, if a CH had a G1 in previous rotation then the swpc is likely to have that showed up again in their forecast during the next rotation. 

My last holiday to Sweden I booked my tickets a few months upfront and tried to get my travel period a bit in line with the CH arrivals but I missed the first day of the CH arrival. Just to say it’s hard to get it right 😉 

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