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rankamateur

774 solar event x class what if carrington event x45

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i am not a mathematician or scientist, but love studying earth endangering events of all kinds.

I see the carrington event might have had a x45 magnitude.

i see online that the 774 event might have 10x to 20x stronger.

what x number would that make the 774 event?

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http://scienceheathen.com/2012/12/01/doomsday-solar-flares-20-times-stronger-than-any-ever-known-from-the-sun-possible-one-likely-hit-the-earth-in-774-ad-research-finds-2/

 

this article says 60x 1989 Quebec, which is listed as X15.

 

so how big was 774 event? Can't find the X number

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/12/solar-proton-event-seen-in-tree-ring-records/

 

this one says 7-10x 1989 Quebec, which is still huge. But how does it scale on X scale?

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The strength of a solar radiation storm or geomagnetic storm doesn't say all too much about the strength of a solar flare. High M-class solar flares can in theory cause the same mayhem as a high X-class solar flare but of course, stronger solar flares in general cause stronger space weather effects. It also depends how eruptive a solar flare is. We have had impulsive X-class solar flares that didn't cause any kind of noteworthy space weather effects. The X-ray emission strength of a solar flare never tells the whole story.

For solar radiation storms, the location of the solar flare is also very important when it comes to how many protons are able to reach Earth. These protons follow the general direction of the Parker Spiral.

The 774 event can't be 60 times stronger than the 1989 event. You do the math. The solar flare scale works like this:

X1 is 10 times stronger than M1.
X10 is 10 times stronger than X1.
X100 is 10 times stronger than X10 and 100 times stronger than X1 .

I don't think it is possible to accurately estimate the strength of a solar flare that took place such a long time ago but... well I have no idea. I'm not a scientist.

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