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Does anybody have insight on why the solar activity has been so poor this past year? I know that cycle 24 is on the downswing but is it normal to be so quiet already? We haven't had a single X-flare since may of 2015!!!! I'm pretty sure that is isn't normal seeing as the max was just in 2014, and cycle 25 should begin around 2022, which means 24 hasn't bottomed out yet. Also, scientists are saying cycle 25 is going to be really weak. Does that mean my chances of seeing aurora in the US lower 48 are virtually gone?

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I must agree that the solar activity was disappointingly low last year. SC24 is weaker than average but even then I would have expected more activity.

You can see nicely that the maximum was in March 2014 and it went downhill fast from there: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle-progression

It's really too early to tell what SC25 will do. I wouldn't give up hope yet. It is always possible for a monster sunspot to appear and fire a strong coronal mass ejection towards us hat could give us a strong geomagnetic storm like you need. Chances are lower than average perhaps but I would never give up hope.

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Hi Marcel, i notice that despite solar activity is going down, according to KP records, October, november and december 2015 had 16,13 and 17 days with kp 4 or higher.. that´s slightly above same months on 2014, and far above 2013, 2012, 2011...

Is there solid correlation between solar activity and Kp?

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3 minutes ago, Kaimbridge said:
4 minutes ago, Kaimbridge said:

I believe geomagnetic activity is more pronounced on the downside of solar cycles—i.e., now. 

Hi Kaimbridge,  it´s surprising for me to read that, Do you have any ground for that argument?  I thought that low solar activity leads to low geomagnetic activity therefore less number of strong auroras... but I´m just a newbie

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23 uren geleden, Carlosboreal zei:

 

Hi Marcel, i notice that despite solar activity is going down, according to KP records, October, november and december 2015 had 16,13 and 17 days with kp 4 or higher.. that´s slightly above same months on 2014, and far above 2013, 2012, 2011...

Is there solid correlation between solar activity and Kp?

Hi there. Solar activity is definitely lower now than it was in 2014 when solar cycle 24 peaked but to determine that we need to take a look at the sunspot number and the number of solar flares. This page gives you a great overview:

English https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-cycle-progression
Spanish https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/es/actividad-solar/progresion-del-ciclo-solar

Higher solar activity means more sunspots which could produce more solar flares. These solar flares might send coronal mass ejections our way which could cause enhanced geomagnetic conditions in theory. High solar activity does not automatically equal high geomagnetic (auroral) activity because even if there are a whole bunch of solar flares on the limb, the solar activity might be high but we wouldn't get any enhanced auroral activity here at Earth.

I do believe we have had some nice coronal holes during the last months of 2015 which were the likely culprits of the enhanced geomagnetic conditions that you mention. I do not remember exactly from the top of my head but I think we had a lot of coronal hole solar wind streams at the time. Do note that coronal holes aren't related with solar activity. With solar activity people mean solar flares and to a lesser extend sunspots but coronal holes are also a prime space weather factor that perhaps do not cause the strongest geomagnetic storms but can cause days of geomagnetic unrest if the coronal hole is large.
 

1 uur geleden, Kaimbridge zei:

I believe geomagnetic activity is more pronounced on the downside of solar cycles—i.e., now. 

Geomagnetic activity I don't know, doubt that but as far as solar flares go... the strongest solar flares in history often took place during the declining phase of a solar cycle. The Halloween solar storms of 2003 are a great example with X10, X17 and X28+ (perhaps X45) a solid two years after solar maximum... but I do have my doubts if SC24 is going to continue this trend. Solar activity is at yawn levels right now. ;-)

Long post, hope it all makes sense.

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