Carlosboreal Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Hi everyone, my name is Carlos and I live in Málaga (south Spain), I found this interesting forum and after read it for a while, I would like to take some of advice from expert people like some of you I was in Tromso and Lofoten last year in march, the main aim was to "hunt" the NL, and I did, 4 days on a week. I would like to go again, but after reading a little bit about solar cycles and its correlation with NL, i have some questions: I know that solar cycle (24) is backing from a peak 2013-2015, what means that probably there would be less and less sunspots therefore less NL, am I right? I could go to Tromso in march or in october for 8 days, I prefer in october for personal and work issues, BUT, if the sunspots are going down, how can it be affected in 7 months (between march-october)? what I mean is, in this 7 months period, the average number of nights with aurora may go down remarkably? or just slightly? what is your experience or knowledge on this situations? do you think going on march (next month) would be much better than wait untill october? I know NL are not maths, but I´m pretty sure that I can get a good answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Aurora will still lighten up the arctic skies even during solar minimum or low solar activity. Solar minimum is a period where very few sunspots appear on our star. Few sunspots means fewer solar flares which could launch coronal mass ejections towards our planet. The normal solar wind will not disappear and coronal holes will still be present from time to time. While it’s true that there are less geomagnetic storms during the years around solar minimum, aurora will still occur at high latitudes. Because there aren’t as many strong solar storms during solar minimum as during solar maximum, it will not happen very often that the auroral oval expands to lower latitudes but aurora will always appear from time to time at locations close to the auroral oval, like northern Scandinavia and Alaska. Long story short, at such a high latitudes the aurora will also appear when there is very little solar activity. Arctic latitudes don't need coronal mass ejections or coronal holes for aurora to show up. It really shouldn't matter if you go now or in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carlosboreal Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Hi Marcel, thank´s a lot for the quick answer, following your statement, It doesn´t really matters if I go next month or in october, fine, but the intensity of NL could be different? The sunspots and solar flares are only related with how far toward south the aurora will go? BTW, do you know any statistic of average NL nights in some specific location like tromso during the last years? I don´t mean a KP statistic like in this web page are, I mean a real confirmation of that NL appeared for example on 24-dic-2012. It´s possible a good NL display in Tromso or higher latitudes with KP 1 or KP 2? Thanks for helping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Engelsman Finland Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Yes. Check the webcams. Shame you can't get here now. 2 m class and a c 8 with a cme. I hope there if less cloud for the next 4 or 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 3 uren geleden, Carlosboreal zei: Hi Marcel, thank´s a lot for the quick answer, following your statement, It doesn´t really matters if I go next month or in october, fine, but the intensity of NL could be different? The sunspots and solar flares are only related with how far toward south the aurora will go? BTW, do you know any statistic of average NL nights in some specific location like tromso during the last years? I don´t mean a KP statistic like in this web page are, I mean a real confirmation of that NL appeared for example on 24-dic-2012. It´s possible a good NL display in Tromso or higher latitudes with KP 1 or KP 2? Thanks for helping The intensity could be different but that depends on the status of the solar wind. Not if there are more or less sunspots on the Sun. I do not know about Tromso but Kiruna in Sweden has something like that http://www.irf.se/Observatory/?link[All-sky%20camera]=Aurora_sp_statistics Even at Kp1 and Kp2, the aurora can look very satisfying from latitudes like Tromso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AurorahunterPA Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 This is a little off topic, but does the kiruna magnetogram work for the USA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I recommend you find a magnetometer closer to your location. At least on the same continent. You might consider looking at the magnetometers on board the GOES satellites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waldo Hazeleger Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 You can find a magnetometer close to your location on the site of the USGS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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