Jesterface23 Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 With that above, the multipliers add up and after just looking at a few number of CMEs they seem to work on any multiplier as long as the everything required is visible in the C3 imagery. Multiplier 2 is a guess with not many of those data points available in the CMEs I've looked at. Multiplier 0: In the path of the leading edge, 2 leading edge points Multiplier 1: In the path of the leading edge, 1 leading edge point, 1 shockwave point Multiplier 2: ??? In the path of the leading edge, 2 shockwave points Multiplier 3: In the path of the shockwave, 1 leading edge point, 1 shockwave point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 You're really going all in with this research of yours. I'm impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Maybe some more input you can utilize for your equations: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-04546-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 Thanks, I'll have that page bookmarked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 13, 2018 Author Share Posted February 13, 2018 This latest CME looked clear enough to get the needed points to try predicting the time this morning and now looking at the model from the SWPC, the times look like they are fairly close. Launch: 2/12/2018 00:30Z P1: 9:00Z P2: 15:00Z PDif: 6:00 P3: 12:00Z LaunchDif: 11:30Z Multiplier: 5.1 (Multiplier 3) Travel: 2 Days, 10.65 Hours Arrival: 2/14/2018 11:00Z If I read the CME correctly, the first point was the leading edge on the bottom right of the C3 imagery. What I think happened to the second point is the CME started folding at the shock behind the leading edge of the CME making it a shock point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Does your equation in any way take into account the current ambient solar wind speed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 14, 2018 Author Share Posted February 14, 2018 Not yet, but I'm thinking that might be what was causing some small differences in some of the first graphs I've made on this project. I want to get through all of the new data this year but so far I've been really busy. I'm waiting for this current CME though to see if we are getting a direct hit or side hit to try and backtrack it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 From what I see from the numbers, we took a hit from the leading edge and both time points I had ended up being shock points shock points instead of the first point being a leading edge point. If it's noticeable, I think the shock following the leading edge should hit at some point over the next several hours and shortly after that the solar wind will start to decrease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 I'll post an image on roughly what I think the stages of CME impacts are. There are 3 CMEs, the latest CME, the CME on September 7th, and the CME from the final X-Class flare that arrived on the 12th. There are the velocities, density, and IMF total strength and Z component for each CME. If a CME hits and it is a leading edge, then we can get a decent idea on when the shock will start to come in. Subtracting the launch time from the arrival time, multiply that by the square root of pi/2, add that to the launch time and you have the time of around when the shock will start. With the CME at the bottom we were only hit by the shock just about as far as you can get from the leading edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted July 10, 2018 Author Share Posted July 10, 2018 (edited) Well, I though I'd give an update on the current progress of this project. It might be a while until I get to working on this again until a get a pile of work done. I've attempted to contact the correct people at NASA that might take interest in this, and so far there's been no luck with that. I guess this will be a solo project along with the help and ideas from others here until I prove what it can do. I have been working on this a little and I think I have the exact base formula, y=cos(pi*x)-(x/sqrt(pi/2)). I have a modified version for the use of my method of CME arrival time prediction, but I know it's has a ways to go and I'll need to do calculations from the STEREO spacecrafts to finish that also. Edit: I did make one more attempt and was finally able to contact the correct person. Edited September 1, 2018 by Jesterface23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted June 18, 2019 Author Share Posted June 18, 2019 (edited) Hello, I have some new preliminary information. I've already posted about 2 different leading shocks we can be impacted by. After looking into the internal structure of a CME though there may be possibly be 7 shocks(I might need a different name for it later) total with the final being the exit. The positions of each can be calculated. The cores between each shock are made of two halves and further details are still to be determined. The CME degrades from the end to the leading edge over time. While looking into the internal structure of a CME I needed to know when exactly does a CME launch. When backtracking CMEs currently I ended up coming to when the leading edge of a CME is at around 2.5 solar radii from the sun that seems to be the time of launch. This is still preliminary, but after some time I noticed that is around 1.25 solar diameter. That just happens to be similar to the square root of pi/2, so what are the odds that is where that number comes from. This is very preliminary, I'm not sure of all cases of it, but if one CME runs over another CME it seems to be pushed by the other and becomes very small. If it impacts Earth the second CME would arrive a few hours after the first CME impact. Edited June 18, 2019 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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